39143 Hillcrest Dr · Zephyrhills North, FL 33542

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 810 sqft · Manufactured public records · 96 Days on market

Built 2019 5,569 sqft lot Est $92k · 35% over $41/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Hillcrest 55+ Community Home in Zephyrhills, Florida. Nestled in the friendly Hillcrest 55+ community, this comfortable 2019 two-bedroom, two-bathroom home in Zephyrhills offers the best of relaxed Florida living with everything you need right at your doorstep. Move-in ready and well maintained, it combines practical features with a welcoming neighborhood vibe—ideal for enjoying every day at a comfortable pace. This thoughtfully designed floor plan makes daily routines easy and provides just the right amount of space for hosting guests. The home is well-kept and ready for you to move in from day one. A welcoming front porch and a private side patio invite you to enjoy your morning cof

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Private side patio
• 5,569 sq ft lot

Tags

• PRIVATE SIDE PATIO
• FENCED YARD
• TWO STORAGE BUILDINGS
• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (association name: Jim Greenhaw); Monthly HOA fee $41.67 (annual $500); Association approval required; Association fee includes private road and water; Association amenities: clubhouse, shuffleboard court; Community features: clubhouse, association recreation owned, golf carts permitted; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Parking: No carport spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Cable available; High-speed internet/BB available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One story; South-facing entry
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built in 1 story
• Exterior features: Storage; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Crown molding; Inside utility room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry in a laundry closet; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $388 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 7.6% in Zephyrhills North — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#787 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Elementary School (math 30% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 802 students, 82% FRL); Raymond B. Stewart Middle School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 988 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 48% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.6%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $125k implies a 528% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.30%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $92,340
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39047 Hillcrest Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	896 (+11%)	8mo	$100,000	$112	66
39053 Flora Ave	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	768 (-5%)	1mo	$142,500	$186	66
39239 Longview Ave	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	756 (-7%)	1mo	$127,000	$168	62
39136 Flora Ave	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	720 (-11%)	2mo	$66,500	$92	61
38541 Windflower Ave	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	825 (+2%)	4mo	$65,000	$79	53
39519 Rockford Ave	0.52mi	2/1.5 (-1)	844 (+4%)	11mo	$120,000	$142	52
39033 Flora Ave	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	903 (+12%)	7mo	$85,000	$94	50
39045 Sabal Ave	0.37mi	2/1.5 (-1)	744 (-8%)	14mo	$85,000	$114	50
39401 Sycamore Ln	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	784 (-3%)	15mo	$92,000	$117	46
39613 Sterling Dr	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	896 (+11%)	3mo	$95,000	$106	46
38721 Granger Ln	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	736 (-9%)	11mo	$145,000	$197	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $38
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $14,789
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33542

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,499 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $576/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$41
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,008

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $459	-5% $423	+0% $388	+5% $353	+10% $317
Rent	-10% $269	-5% $329	+0% $388	+5% $447	+10% $506
Rate	-1.0pp $451	-0.5pp $420	base $388	+0.5pp $356	+1.0pp $323

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39132 County Road 54 #2184 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,500	$1.74	26d	1	0.14mi
39132 County Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,500	$1.74	26d	1	0.15mi
38939 North Ave Unit 2 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,300	$1.49	19d	1	0.35mi
38748 Calumet Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	6d	1	0.39mi
38647 Rose Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	814	$1,350	$1.66	26d	1	0.54mi
38621 Rose Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,495	$1.44	1d	1	0.57mi
38942 9th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,425	$1.68	26d	1	0.63mi
5647 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,425	$1.68	26d	1	0.64mi
5652 18th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,200	$1.23	26d	1	0.66mi
38485 County Road 54 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	26d	1	0.74mi
5532 Jennie St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	862	$1,100	$1.28	14d	1	0.75mi
5542 20th St Unit 1234473P Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	839	$3,199	$3.81	4d	1	0.75mi
5532 20th St Unit 1234470P Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	839	$7,732	$9.22	1d	1	0.76mi
5600 Jennie St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	730	$1,100	$1.51	26d	1	0.76mi
5548 Annette St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	652	$1,049	$1.61	14d	1	0.76mi
5603 Eugene Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	652	$1,049	$1.61	14d	1	0.77mi
6052 10th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	644	$1,200	$1.86	26d	1	0.80mi
5552 Annette St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	652	$1,049	$1.61	26d	1	0.80mi
6788 Basswood Cir Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,250	$1.17	26d	1	0.83mi
38350 Ironwood Pl #5 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,800	$1.65	26d	1	0.88mi
38552 9th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1052	$2,100	$2.00	22d	1	0.89mi
5441 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1014	$1,650	$1.63	26d	1	1.27mi
5028 16th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,545	$1.41	1d	1	1.31mi
39014 South Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	1d	1	1.33mi
39014 South Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	6d	1	1.33mi
38702 South Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	26d	1	1.40mi
37732 Cecil Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	26d	1	1.41mi
4845 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	752	$1,350	$1.80	26d	1	1.43mi
37812 15th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	26d	1	1.45mi
5022 5th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.5	974	$1,595	$1.64	26d	1	1.49mi
4808 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	702	$1,295	$1.84	12d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $41 · $492/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $125,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-03-14
    listed $125,000 Active
15. 2015-02-21
    historical
16. 2015-02-05
    listed $22,900 Active
17. 1994-12-05
    soldstatus $19,900
18. 1991-12-01
    soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $576 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,038 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$461/yr (+$38/mo · 80.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,993
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$576
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,439
• − Management: −$1,439
• − HOA: −$492
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $2,782
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$668
• After-tax cash flow: $3,987/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills North

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #787
• US rank: #18026

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills North, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,612
• Household income: $49,316
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 831.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.25%
• Current HPI: 313.3993
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.56%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+594.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-05 Listed $22,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $19,900 Public Records
• 1991-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $576 · -10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.