17468 W Crocus Dr · Surprise, AZ 85388

$429,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,401 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 2004 6,930 sqft lot $179/sqft · 9% below area Est $473k · 9% under $70/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seller offering $2,000 toward RATE BUY DOWN and/or CLOSING COSTS. Inside, you'll find bright and inviting living areas with wood-look flooring, abundant natural light, and neutral paint that complements any style. The spacious kitchen features oak cabinetry, ample counter space, a large corner pantry, breakfast bar, and cozy eat-in dining area. A front formal dining room offers flexibility and can easily be used as a home office or sitting area for guests. The primary suite is a true retreat with a walk-in closet, dual-sink vanity, and separate shower and tub. Brand new carpet in all bedrooms adds comfort and a fresh, move-in ready feel. Enjoy new wood blinds throughout and step outside to a full-length covered patio. (patio roof has been resealed) A MUST See Property Features & Updates " New interior paint (2026) " Brand new carpet throughout " All tile and grout professionally steam cleaned " Flat roof recoated and sealed (2026) " Deep professional cleaning " New kitchen appliances including range and microwave " Washer and dryer approx. 1.5 years old (Amana) " New garbage disposal " New primary bathroom faucets " Corian countertops " New slider screen " All exterior screens freshly washed " 2 TRANE air conditioners SOLAR The home has a 20 year solar lease that started in 2014, so there is still a good amount of life and savings remaining. The current solar payment is $180 per month. Even during the peak summer month in July, the electric bill was around $200 while keeping the home at 78 degrees, which gives a helpful picture of the overall energy savings.

Key facts

• Wood look flooring
• Oak cabinetry
• Walk in closet

Tags

• WOOD LOOK FLOORING
• OAK CABINETRY
• LARGE CORNER PANTRY
• BREAKFAST BAR
• WALK IN CLOSET
• DUAL SINK VANITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $429k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-541 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (22.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (38.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $266k (38.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sunset Hills Elementary (math 37% / reading 48%, grade F, #367 of 1,109 statewide, top 33%, 969 students, 42% FRL); Shadow Ridge High School (math 34% / reading 39%, grade F, #88 of 381 statewide, top 24%, 2,323 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 389 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($416k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $132k; list at $429k implies a 225% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $266,075 (38.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.41%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $472,555
• List price: $429,000
• Delta: -9.22%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17468 W Crocus Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,401 (0%)	0mo	$425,000	$177	94
17443 W Georgia Dr	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,385 (-1%)	0mo	$475,000	$199	76
17630 W Spring Ln	0.27mi	4/2.0	2,222 (-8%)	2mo	$420,000	$189	66
17435 W Evans Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,103 (-12%)	2mo	$485,000	$231	60
17627 W Evans Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0	2,087 (-13%)	1mo	$425,000	$204	59
17573 W Mandalay Ln	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,048 (-15%)	1mo	$364,500	$178	57
17455 W Meadow Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,068 (-14%)	2mo	$475,042	$230	56
13551 N 175th Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	2,155 (-10%)	1mo	$420,000	$195	54
17845 W Hearn Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,215 (-8%)	2mo	$425,000	$192	52
17596 W Andora St	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,255 (-6%)	3mo	$430,000	$191	49
14906 N 174th Ln	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,048 (-15%)	2mo	$354,900	$173	49
13522 N 176th Ln	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,761 (+15%)	1mo	$520,000	$188	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.28% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-49,202
• Equity at exit: $130,701

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-55,122
• Equity at exit: $162,091

Cash invested: $120,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85388

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 389
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,661 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,250
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,735/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $-541

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,346

Max offer price $333,414

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-298	-5% $-420	+0% $-541	+5% $-663	+10% $-784
Rent	-10% $-751	-5% $-646	+0% $-541	+5% $-436	+10% $-331
Rate	-1.0pp $-325	-0.5pp $-432	base $-541	+0.5pp $-652	+1.0pp $-765

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,250
• Closing costs: $12,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17475 W Spring Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1885	$3,288	$1.74	46d	1	0.18mi
17618 W Mandalay Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,795	$1.14	46d	1	0.29mi
17747 W Ventura St Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	1978	$1,845	$0.93	46d	1	0.33mi
17762 W Watson Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	3318	$3,530	$1.06	26d	1	0.34mi
17395 W Langer Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	1902	$1,995	$1.05	26d	1	0.45mi
17730 W Banff Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1839	$2,495	$1.36	26d	1	0.45mi
17856 W Watson Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	3336	$3,200	$0.96	26d	1	0.46mi
13559 N 174th Ave Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2147	$2,200	$1.02	22d	1	0.47mi
15164 N 173rd Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2048	$2,495	$1.22	26d	1	0.48mi
14945 N 172nd Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1699	$2,099	$1.24	7d	1	0.51mi
17863 W Calavar Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1615	$1,750	$1.08	46d	1	0.53mi
17775 W Eugene Ter Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	2104	$2,279	$1.08	7d	1	0.58mi
17236 W Country Gables Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2291	$2,795	$1.22	46d	1	0.59mi
15143 N 172nd Dr Surprise, AZ	5.0	3.0	2291	$2,795	$1.22	46d	1	0.64mi
17840 W Andora St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	2261	$2,095	$0.93	1d	1	0.67mi
17440 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2159	$2,300	$1.07	5d	1	0.68mi
17229 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2291	$2,245	$0.98	6d	1	0.71mi
13103 N 174th Dr Surprise, AZ	5.0	2.5	2899	$3,500	$1.21	46d	1	0.74mi
17753 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2453	$2,245	$0.92	26d	1	0.74mi
17273 W Carmen Dr Surprise, AZ	5.0	3.0	3166	$2,800	$0.88	13d	1	0.74mi
17818 W Acapulco Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1930	$2,045	$1.06	46d	1	0.75mi
17938 W Port Royale Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1775	$2,050	$1.15	1d	1	0.79mi
15512 N 174th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	2147	$3,000	$1.40	46d	1	0.79mi
17923 W Port au Prince Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,900	$1.18	46d	1	0.81mi
17912 W Port au Prince Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2151	$2,155	$1.00	19d	1	0.82mi
17862 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1766	$2,600	$1.47	20d	1	0.84mi
17932 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2635	$2,195	$0.83	46d	1	0.88mi
17279 W Dahlia Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	1972	$3,300	$1.67	15d	1	0.88mi
17331 W Saguaro Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2403	$2,295	$0.96	46d	1	0.91mi
17867 W Westpark Blvd Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1767	$3,500	$1.98	46d	1	1.03mi
17315 W Tara Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2379	$2,500	$1.05	13d	1	1.03mi
17176 W Corrine Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1685	$2,000	$1.19	24d	1	1.06mi
17610 W Ironwood St Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2149	$2,150	$1.00	6d	1	1.12mi
12480 N 174th Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2012	$2,600	$1.29	20d	1	1.12mi
16003 N Cristine Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2379	$2,200	$0.92	46d	1	1.14mi
15927 N 171st Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1670	$3,200	$1.92	46d	1	1.16mi
17722 W Marshall Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1756	$2,185	$1.24	4d	1	1.19mi
17272 W Marshall Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2004	$2,085	$1.04	46d	1	1.19mi
16903 W Marconi Ave Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2426	$2,295	$0.95	46d	1	1.20mi
18089 W Westpark Blvd Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2313	$2,101	$0.91	26d	1	1.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr
• Likely covers: trashelectric

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-06
   historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 1656-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1656 chars)

   Seller offering $2,000 toward RATE BUY DOWN and/or CLOSING COSTS. Inside, you'll find bright and inviting living areas with wood-look flooring, abundant natural light, and neutral paint that complements any style. The spacious kitchen features oak cabinetry, ample counter space, a large corner pantry, breakfast bar, and cozy eat-in dining area. A front formal dining room offers flexibility and can easily be used as a home office or sitting area for guests. The primary suite is a true retreat with a walk-in closet, dual-sink vanity, and separate shower and tub. Brand new carpet in all bedrooms adds comfort and a fresh, move-in ready feel. Enjoy new wood blinds throughout and step outside to a full-length covered patio. (patio roof has been resealed) A MUST See Property Features & Updates " New interior paint (2026) " Brand new carpet throughout " All tile and grout professionally steam cleaned " Flat roof recoated and sealed (2026) " Deep professional cleaning " New kitchen appliances including range and microwave " Washer and dryer approx. 1.5 years old (Amana) " New garbage disposal " New primary bathroom faucets " Corian countertops " New slider screen " All exterior screens freshly washed " 2 TRANE air conditioners SOLAR The home has a 20 year solar lease that started in 2014, so there is still a good amount of life and savings remaining. The current solar payment is $180 per month. Even during the peak summer month in July, the electric bill was around $200 while keeping the home at 78 degrees, which gives a helpful picture of the overall energy savings.

2. 2026-04-29
   price $429,000 1656-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1656 chars)

   Seller offering $2,000 toward RATE BUY DOWN and/or CLOSING COSTS. Inside, you'll find bright and inviting living areas with wood-look flooring, abundant natural light, and neutral paint that complements any style. The spacious kitchen features oak cabinetry, ample counter space, a large corner pantry, breakfast bar, and cozy eat-in dining area. A front formal dining room offers flexibility and can easily be used as a home office or sitting area for guests. The primary suite is a true retreat with a walk-in closet, dual-sink vanity, and separate shower and tub. Brand new carpet in all bedrooms adds comfort and a fresh, move-in ready feel. Enjoy new wood blinds throughout and step outside to a full-length covered patio. (patio roof has been resealed) A MUST See Property Features & Updates " New interior paint (2026) " Brand new carpet throughout " All tile and grout professionally steam cleaned " Flat roof recoated and sealed (2026) " Deep professional cleaning " New kitchen appliances including range and microwave " Washer and dryer approx. 1.5 years old (Amana) " New garbage disposal " New primary bathroom faucets " Corian countertops " New slider screen " All exterior screens freshly washed " 2 TRANE air conditioners SOLAR The home has a 20 year solar lease that started in 2014, so there is still a good amount of life and savings remaining. The current solar payment is $180 per month. Even during the peak summer month in July, the electric bill was around $200 while keeping the home at 78 degrees, which gives a helpful picture of the overall energy savings.

3. 2026-04-25
   price $439,000 1656-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1656 chars)

   Seller offering $2,000 toward RATE BUY DOWN and/or CLOSING COSTS. Inside, you'll find bright and inviting living areas with wood-look flooring, abundant natural light, and neutral paint that complements any style. The spacious kitchen features oak cabinetry, ample counter space, a large corner pantry, breakfast bar, and cozy eat-in dining area. A front formal dining room offers flexibility and can easily be used as a home office or sitting area for guests. The primary suite is a true retreat with a walk-in closet, dual-sink vanity, and separate shower and tub. Brand new carpet in all bedrooms adds comfort and a fresh, move-in ready feel. Enjoy new wood blinds throughout and step outside to a full-length covered patio. (patio roof has been resealed) A MUST See Property Features & Updates " New interior paint (2026) " Brand new carpet throughout " All tile and grout professionally steam cleaned " Flat roof recoated and sealed (2026) " Deep professional cleaning " New kitchen appliances including range and microwave " Washer and dryer approx. 1.5 years old (Amana) " New garbage disposal " New primary bathroom faucets " Corian countertops " New slider screen " All exterior screens freshly washed " 2 TRANE air conditioners SOLAR The home has a 20 year solar lease that started in 2014, so there is still a good amount of life and savings remaining. The current solar payment is $180 per month. Even during the peak summer month in July, the electric bill was around $200 while keeping the home at 78 degrees, which gives a helpful picture of the overall energy savings.

4. 2026-04-16
   listed $449,000 Active 1656-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1656 chars)

   Seller offering $2,000 toward RATE BUY DOWN and/or CLOSING COSTS. Inside, you'll find bright and inviting living areas with wood-look flooring, abundant natural light, and neutral paint that complements any style. The spacious kitchen features oak cabinetry, ample counter space, a large corner pantry, breakfast bar, and cozy eat-in dining area. A front formal dining room offers flexibility and can easily be used as a home office or sitting area for guests. The primary suite is a true retreat with a walk-in closet, dual-sink vanity, and separate shower and tub. Brand new carpet in all bedrooms adds comfort and a fresh, move-in ready feel. Enjoy new wood blinds throughout and step outside to a full-length covered patio. (patio roof has been resealed) A MUST See Property Features & Updates " New interior paint (2026) " Brand new carpet throughout " All tile and grout professionally steam cleaned " Flat roof recoated and sealed (2026) " Deep professional cleaning " New kitchen appliances including range and microwave " Washer and dryer approx. 1.5 years old (Amana) " New garbage disposal " New primary bathroom faucets " Corian countertops " New slider screen " All exterior screens freshly washed " 2 TRANE air conditioners SOLAR The home has a 20 year solar lease that started in 2014, so there is still a good amount of life and savings remaining. The current solar payment is $180 per month. Even during the peak summer month in July, the electric bill was around $200 while keeping the home at 78 degrees, which gives a helpful picture of the overall energy savings.

5. 2010-09-04
   historical 690-char remark

   Show marketing remark (690 chars)

   Great single story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, window coverings throughout, wood-laminate floors, custom paint, white kitchen appliances & more. Home in great condition-show today! PLEASE do not call for availability-listing status is up-to-date. Property sold AS-IS, no warranties guaranteed or implied, no repairs will be made. Please include Arizona AS-IS addendum along with LSR/Proof of Funds and any applicable HOA addendums with all offers. Buyer to verify all facts, figures & measurements-buyer’s due diligence is expected. No SPDS or CLUE Report will be provided. Please allow 3-5 business days for seller response. Seller requests to choose title company.

6. 2010-09-03
   soldstatus $132,000 Closed 690-char remark

   Show marketing remark (690 chars)

   Great single story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, window coverings throughout, wood-laminate floors, custom paint, white kitchen appliances & more. Home in great condition-show today! PLEASE do not call for availability-listing status is up-to-date. Property sold AS-IS, no warranties guaranteed or implied, no repairs will be made. Please include Arizona AS-IS addendum along with LSR/Proof of Funds and any applicable HOA addendums with all offers. Buyer to verify all facts, figures & measurements-buyer’s due diligence is expected. No SPDS or CLUE Report will be provided. Please allow 3-5 business days for seller response. Seller requests to choose title company.

7. 2010-07-13
   status Pending 690-char remark

   Show marketing remark (690 chars)

   Great single story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, window coverings throughout, wood-laminate floors, custom paint, white kitchen appliances & more. Home in great condition-show today! PLEASE do not call for availability-listing status is up-to-date. Property sold AS-IS, no warranties guaranteed or implied, no repairs will be made. Please include Arizona AS-IS addendum along with LSR/Proof of Funds and any applicable HOA addendums with all offers. Buyer to verify all facts, figures & measurements-buyer’s due diligence is expected. No SPDS or CLUE Report will be provided. Please allow 3-5 business days for seller response. Seller requests to choose title company.

8. 2010-07-02
   price $134,900 690-char remark

   Show marketing remark (690 chars)

   Great single story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, window coverings throughout, wood-laminate floors, custom paint, white kitchen appliances & more. Home in great condition-show today! PLEASE do not call for availability-listing status is up-to-date. Property sold AS-IS, no warranties guaranteed or implied, no repairs will be made. Please include Arizona AS-IS addendum along with LSR/Proof of Funds and any applicable HOA addendums with all offers. Buyer to verify all facts, figures & measurements-buyer’s due diligence is expected. No SPDS or CLUE Report will be provided. Please allow 3-5 business days for seller response. Seller requests to choose title company.

9. 2010-05-23
   listed $149,900 Active 690-char remark

   Show marketing remark (690 chars)

   Great single story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, window coverings throughout, wood-laminate floors, custom paint, white kitchen appliances & more. Home in great condition-show today! PLEASE do not call for availability-listing status is up-to-date. Property sold AS-IS, no warranties guaranteed or implied, no repairs will be made. Please include Arizona AS-IS addendum along with LSR/Proof of Funds and any applicable HOA addendums with all offers. Buyer to verify all facts, figures & measurements-buyer’s due diligence is expected. No SPDS or CLUE Report will be provided. Please allow 3-5 business days for seller response. Seller requests to choose title company.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,735 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,831 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,096/yr (+$91/mo · 63.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 9% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,929
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,031
• − Property taxes: −$1,735
• − Insurance: −$2,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,554
• − Management: −$2,554
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$12,480
• Taxable loss: −$14,411
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,459
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,035/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 35,369
• Household income: $112,164
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 224.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.28%
• Current HPI: 272.9859
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+186.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $429,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $439,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $449,000 ARMLS
• 2010-09-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2010-09-03 Sold (MLS) $132,000 ARMLS
• 2010-07-13 Pending — ARMLS
• 2010-07-02 Price Changed $134,900 ARMLS
• 2010-05-23 Listed $149,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,735 · +9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.