1126 Chervil Dr · Poinciana, FL 34759

$5,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,906 sqft · Other public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2016 3,920 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in a very peaceful gated community with a community pool, fitness center, tennis and basketball courts, this 4 bed 2.5 bath townhome is well kept with a tenant in residence. If you like to live near orange groves and Lake Marion come and take a look at this community! Built in November 2016 this property is well maintained and cared for by the tenant and would make an excellent investment.

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2016

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Other water source; Other sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Residential property
• Construction: Construction materials: See remarks
• Exterior features: Front porch; Other roof

Interior

• Flooring: Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Other flooring

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $5,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $5k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $5k).
• Cap rate 390.0% vs local median 4.2% in Poinciana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $35 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $74 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.5% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $1k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $5,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 41.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 389.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 1370.28%
• DSCR: 61.97
• GRM: 0.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 70.69×
• Total profit: $97,568
• Equity at exit: $1,093

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 144.91×
• Total profit: $201,480
• Equity at exit: $1,053

Cash invested: $1,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 0.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,067 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$26
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$6 /mo · $75/yr
• Insurance: −$2
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $1,599

Break-even live

Break-even rent $44

Max offer price $5,000

Occupancy floor 18%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,602	-5% $1,600	+0% $1,599	+5% $1,597	+10% $1,595
Rent	-10% $1,435	-5% $1,517	+0% $1,599	+5% $1,680	+10% $1,762
Rate	-1.0pp $1,601	-0.5pp $1,600	base $1,599	+0.5pp $1,597	+1.0pp $1,596

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,250
• Closing costs: $150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1130 Chervil Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,575	$1.05	24d	1	0.02mi
1110 Chervil Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	2110	$1,575	$0.75	24d	1	0.03mi
1282 Clove Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1906	$1,600	$0.84	4d	1	0.04mi
337 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,980	$1.19	15d	1	0.19mi
325 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,995	$1.24	4d	1	0.22mi
316 Fern Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,775	$1.11	4d	1	0.23mi
344 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,825	$1.09	4d	1	0.25mi
309 Fern Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1767	$2,150	$1.22	4d	1	0.28mi
452 Cinnamon Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1793	$2,000	$1.12	24d	1	0.31mi
302 Elderberry Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,200	$1.32	24d	1	0.33mi
305 Elderberry Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1560	$2,000	$1.28	4d	1	0.35mi
404 Cinnamon Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,775	$1.34	15d	1	0.35mi
439 Caraway Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1791	$1,800	$1.01	4d	1	0.35mi
204 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,080	$1.14	24d	1	0.38mi
333 Daffodil Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,040	$1.10	15d	1	0.38mi
2129 Hibiscus Pl Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1765	$2,100	$1.19	4d	1	0.40mi
446 Caraway Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1334	$1,675	$1.26	24d	1	0.42mi
207 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,855	$1.16	4d	1	0.43mi
210 Goldenrod Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1626	$1,875	$1.15	24d	1	0.43mi
260 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,065	$1.24	4d	1	0.45mi
216 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,080	$1.14	15d	1	0.46mi
216 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,005	$1.08	4d	1	0.46mi
263 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,750	$1.09	15d	1	0.46mi
922 Centaury Dr Unit 1 Poinciana, FL	3.0	3.0	2166	$1,900	$0.88	15d	1	0.48mi
222 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1852	$1,970	$1.06	4d	1	0.50mi
222 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$1,970	$1.08	4d	1	0.50mi
207 Begonia Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1623	$1,925	$1.19	24d	1	0.55mi
260 Hyacinth Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,765	$1.26	24d	1	0.55mi
101 Big Black Dr Kissimmee, FL	5.0	3.0	2530	$2,500	$0.99	24d	1	0.57mi
302 W Aster Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,240	$1.34	4d	1	0.67mi
339 W Aster Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1504	$2,345	$1.56	3d	1	0.70mi
119 Tulip Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,095	$1.25	24d	1	0.76mi
2150 Mystic Ring Loop Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,700	$1.37	12d	1	0.79mi
2005 Maple Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1669	$1,719	$1.03	4d	1	0.80mi
2006 Maple Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1886	$2,040	$1.08	4d	1	0.80mi
2140 Mystic Ring Loop Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,495	$1.20	15d	1	0.80mi
1157 Hudson Harbor Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1626	$1,850	$1.14	24d	1	0.82mi
108 Tulip Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1612	$2,000	$1.24	15d	1	0.83mi
105 Zinnia Ln W Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,100	$1.31	4d	1	0.84mi
430 Big Sioux Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	2430	$2,000	$0.82	24d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-05
   days on market $5,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $5,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $5,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $5,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $5,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-05-27
   listed $5,000 Active
7. 2020-11-04
   soldstatus $170,000
8. 2020-10-30
   soldstatus $170,000 Sold 400-char remark

   Show marketing remark (400 chars)

   Located in a very peaceful gated community with a community pool, fitness center, tennis and basketball courts, this 4 bed 2.5 bath townhome is well kept with a tenant in residence. If you like to live near orange groves and Lake Marion come and take a look at this community! Built in November 2016 this property is well maintained and cared for by the tenant and would make an excellent investment.

9. 2020-09-15
   status Pending 400-char remark

   Show marketing remark (400 chars)

   Located in a very peaceful gated community with a community pool, fitness center, tennis and basketball courts, this 4 bed 2.5 bath townhome is well kept with a tenant in residence. If you like to live near orange groves and Lake Marion come and take a look at this community! Built in November 2016 this property is well maintained and cared for by the tenant and would make an excellent investment.

10. 2020-07-23
    status Pending 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Located in a very peaceful gated community with a community pool, fitness center, tennis and basketball courts, this 4 bed 2.5 bath townhome is well kept with a tenant in residence. If you like to live near orange groves and Lake Marion come and take a look at this community! Built in November 2016 this property is well maintained and cared for by the tenant and would make an excellent investment.

11. 2020-07-23
    historical 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Located in a very peaceful gated community with a community pool, fitness center, tennis and basketball courts, this 4 bed 2.5 bath townhome is well kept with a tenant in residence. If you like to live near orange groves and Lake Marion come and take a look at this community! Built in November 2016 this property is well maintained and cared for by the tenant and would make an excellent investment.

12. 2020-07-20
    listed $175,000 Active 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Located in a very peaceful gated community with a community pool, fitness center, tennis and basketball courts, this 4 bed 2.5 bath townhome is well kept with a tenant in residence. If you like to live near orange groves and Lake Marion come and take a look at this community! Built in November 2016 this property is well maintained and cared for by the tenant and would make an excellent investment.

13. 2015-11-19
    soldstatus $80,000
14. 2013-09-26
    soldstatus $37,500
15. 2005-02-14
    soldstatus $1,600,000
16. 1997-12-24
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,808
• − Mortgage interest: −$280
• − Property taxes: −$75
• − Insurance: −$25
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,985
• − Management: −$1,985
• − Depreciation: −$145
• Taxable income: $20,313
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,875
• After-tax cash flow: $14,309/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-83.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $5,000 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2020-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-30 Sold (MLS) $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-23 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-20 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2013-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $37,500 Public Records
• 2005-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $1,600,000 Public Records
• 1997-12-24 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+31.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,476 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.