2616 Lemon Tree Ln Unit F · Orlando, FL 32839

$87,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 642 sqft · Condo · 89 Days on market

Built 1976 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is a great opportunity of Investors amazing location tenant in place paying $1250 per month first floor condo need a little TLC 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1976
• Listed 88 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: HOA with monthly fees; Association approval required; HOA includes pool; Community pool; Community tennis courts; Pets allowed (up to 25 lbs)

Exterior

• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Condominium; Residential property; One-level; Faces south; Unit on first floor
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Built on block foundation
• Exterior features: Balcony; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Block foundation
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $88k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-522/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $88k).
• Recommended offer: $83k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.0% in Orlando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in FL, #360 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Catalina Elementary (math 35% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 612 students, 82% FRL); Memorial Middle (math 29% / reading 30%, grade F, #469 of 571 statewide, top 84%, 944 students, 75% FRL); Oak Ridge High (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,477 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 56% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Orange average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 224 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $608 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent.

Recommended offer $82,626 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
12. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
13. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
14. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
15. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.12%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-20,308
• Equity at exit: $13,106

10-year hold

• IRR: -53.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-33,936
• Equity at exit: $7,600

Cash invested: $24,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32839

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,214 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$461
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$110 /mo · $1,318/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA est. from 5 same-building comps: −$395
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $-43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,269

Max offer price $81,611

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $17	-5% $-13	+0% $-43	+5% $-74	+10% $-104
Rent	-10% $-139	-5% $-91	+0% $-43	+5% $4	+10% $52
Rate	-1.0pp $1	-0.5pp $-21	base $-43	+0.5pp $-66	+1.0pp $-89

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,975
• Closing costs: $2,637
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2636 Lemon Tree Ln #2636 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	642	$1,050	$1.64	25d	1	0.03mi
4308 Lakeway Dr Unit E Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	642	$1,200	$1.87	25d	1	0.08mi
5017 City St #1923 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	724	$1,500	$2.07	25d	1	0.39mi
5028 Park Central Dr #2133 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	605	$1,350	$2.23	25d	1	0.43mi
5028 Park Central Dr #2131 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	605	$1,290	$2.13	4d	1	0.43mi
2210 Yankee Pl #316 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	535	$1,375	$2.57	25d	1	0.49mi
2210 Yankee Pl #334 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	535	$1,195	$2.23	16d	1	0.49mi
4028 Billingsgate Rd Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	670	$1,200	$1.79	9d	1	0.50mi
2203 Yankee Pl #427 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	605	$1,325	$2.19	6d	1	0.52mi
4255 Barwood Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1071	$1,185	$1.11	6d	1	0.68mi
1717 Holden Ave Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	980	$1,049	$1.07	0d	24	0.69mi
2437 Americana Blvd Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,851	$2.07	0d	16	0.70mi
1940 Lake Atriums Cir Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	593	$1,225	$2.07	25d	4	0.78mi
1916 Lake Atriums Cir Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	593	$1,172	$1.98	0d	3	0.79mi
1908 Lake Atriums Cir Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	593	$1,124	$1.90	25d	3	0.81mi
4746 Rio Grande Ave Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,146	$1.25	0d	38	0.83mi
1972 Lake Atriums Cir #180 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	526	$1,150	$2.19	0d	1	0.83mi
1902 Honour Rd Unit 1902-23 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,200	$1.85	25d	1	0.85mi
1916 Honour Rd #1 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,100	$1.69	25d	1	0.85mi
1964 Lake Atriums Cir Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	655	$1,225	$1.87	9d	3	0.85mi
1964 Lake Atriums Cir Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	526	$1,250	$2.38	12d	2	0.85mi
1980 Lake Fountain Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	870	$1,199	$1.38	0d	18	0.94mi
4715 Rio Grande Ave Unit 2 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,195	$1.59	23d	1	0.95mi
3024 Rio Grande Ave Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1058	$1,099	$1.04	25d	1	1.10mi
5521 Axiom Ave Orlando, FL	—	1.0	400	$1,000	$2.50	0d	1	1.18mi
4937 Waterway Ct Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$970	$1.25	0d	60	1.19mi
1968 Lake Heritage Cir Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	855	$1,030	$1.20	0d	27	1.35mi
4641 Cason Cove Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,247	$1.56	0d	6	1.43mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $87,900 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $87,900 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $87,900 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $87,900 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $87,900 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $87,900 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $87,900 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $87,900 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $87,900 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $87,900 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $87,900 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $87,900 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $87,900 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $87,900 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $87,900 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-03-19
    listed $87,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,567
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,924
• − Property taxes: −$1,318
• − Insurance: −$440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,165
• − Management: −$1,165
• − HOA: −$4,740
• − Depreciation: −$2,557
• Taxable loss: −$1,743
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$418
• After-tax cash flow: $-103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This first-floor condo is in fair condition with some cosmetic updates needed. Painting and flooring replacements can significantly enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Paint appears worn on interior walls
• Minor Flooring — Tile flooring in good condition

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace tile flooring — New flooring improves aesthetics and durability
• Both Update bathrooms — Modernizing bathrooms can attract more tenants and buyers
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Upgraded appliances can increase both rental and resale value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Paint appears worn on interior walls	Minor	$500–3,000
Flooring · Tile flooring in good condition	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace tile flooring — New flooring improves aesthetics and durability ↑
• Both Update bathrooms — Modernizing bathrooms can attract more tenants and buyers ↑
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Upgraded appliances can increase both rental and resale value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Orlando

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #360

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• City population: 964,969
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 53,242
• Household income: $47,313
• Rent vs Own: 75.1% rent · 24.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 5337.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 35% Two or more races 17% White 16% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 14% Cuban 2% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Estonian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 33% French/Haitian/Cajun 9% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.65%
• Current HPI: 357.4828
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.50%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $87,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid