1873 Hovsons Blvd · Toms River, NJ 08753

$200,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1968 5,502 sqft lot $200/sqft · 27% below area Est $272k · 27% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Holiday City Silverton, a beautiful 55+ community offering comfort and convenience. This Lakeview model ranch features 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath, an attached garage, and a brand-new roof. Bring your ideas and personal touches to this well-laid-out home with great potential. Enjoy the oversized 3-season room with endless possibilities, all located in a quiet neighborhood close to shopping, dining, and everyday amenities. Residents enjoy a beautiful secluded heated saltwater pool, scenic lake views nearby, and a variety of recreational activities and clubs. Don't miss the opportunity to make this home your own!

Key facts

• Scenic lake views
• Lakeview model ranch
• Quiet neighborhood

Tags

• LAKEVIEW MODEL RANCH
• OVERSIZED 3-SEASON ROOM
• SECLUDED HEATED SALTWATER POOL
• SCENIC LAKE VIEWS
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA fee $75 quarterly; HOA includes use of community pools; Community amenities: Clubhouse, lake, jogging/walking path, outdoor pool, recreational center, retirement community features, shuffleboard

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener and front entry (includes additional storage area); Detached driveway parking space (total 2 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; Oil for heating and hot water
• Home design: Detached property; Shingle roof; Listed as a senior community with 55+ age requirement; Property condition: Good; Ownership: Fee simple
• Construction: Concrete construction; Crawl space foundation; Built according to assessor records
• Exterior features: Porch(es); Lot dimensions: 50.00 x 110.00

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove, Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Oil hot water
• Interior features: Washer, Stove, Refrigerator, Extra refrigerator/freezer; No basement; 6 total rooms; Living area per assessor
• Laundry & utility: Washer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $389 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 424 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,000 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.34%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,214
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -26.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1873 Hovsons Blvd	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,000 (0%)	0mo	$227,500	$228	100
15 Mount Logan Ln	0.13mi	2/1.0	1,000 (0%)	1mo	$375,000	$375	93
1108A Argyll Cir	0.42mi	2/1.0	982 (-2%)	1mo	$246,000	$251	77
1134A Argyll Cir	0.40mi	2/1.0	982 (-2%)	2mo	$239,000	$243	77
23 Mount Dashan Ln	0.19mi	2/1.0	1,092 (+9%)	1mo	$332,500	$304	75
1190A Clydebank Ct	0.45mi	2/1.0	982 (-2%)	1mo	$260,000	$265	75
1190B Clydebank Ct	0.46mi	2/1.0	982 (-2%)	1mo	$250,000	$255	75
1010 Fife Ct Unit B	0.45mi	2/1.0	1,036 (+4%)	1mo	$243,000	$235	72
1236B Hamilton Ct	0.51mi	2/1.0	982 (-2%)	2mo	$180,000	$183	72
1568 Mount Everest Ln	0.66mi	2/1.0	1,000 (0%)	0mo	$315,000	$315	69
10 Acapulco Pl	0.53mi	2/1.0	1,072 (+7%)	1mo	$269,900	$252	62
1245C Hamilton Ct	0.46mi	2/1.0	858 (-14%)	1mo	$166,000	$193	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-10,955
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $9,087
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08753

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 424
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,262 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$241 /mo · $2,889/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,770

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1042C Aberdeen Dr Unit C Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,000	$2.04	4d	1	0.66mi
824A Balmoral Ct Unit A Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,200	$2.24	19d	1	1.01mi
335A Canterbury Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$1,950	$1.99	19d	1	1.38mi
341B Canterbury Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,275	$2.32	22d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-04
   status $200,000 Pending 19 DOM
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $200,000 Active 625-char remark

   Show marketing remark (625 chars)

   Welcome to Holiday City Silverton, a beautiful 55+ community offering comfort and convenience. This Lakeview model ranch features 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath, an attached garage, and a brand-new roof. Bring your ideas and personal touches to this well-laid-out home with great potential. Enjoy the oversized 3-season room with endless possibilities, all located in a quiet neighborhood close to shopping, dining, and everyday amenities. Residents enjoy a beautiful secluded heated saltwater pool, scenic lake views nearby, and a variety of recreational activities and clubs. Don't miss the opportunity to make this home your own!

3. 2026-05-07
   listed $200,000 Active 625-char remark

   Show marketing remark (625 chars)

   Welcome to Holiday City Silverton, a beautiful 55+ community offering comfort and convenience. This Lakeview model ranch features 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath, an attached garage, and a brand-new roof. Bring your ideas and personal touches to this well-laid-out home with great potential. Enjoy the oversized 3-season room with endless possibilities, all located in a quiet neighborhood close to shopping, dining, and everyday amenities. Residents enjoy a beautiful secluded heated saltwater pool, scenic lake views nearby, and a variety of recreational activities and clubs. Don't miss the opportunity to make this home your own!

4. 1998-05-15
   soldstatus $72,500
5. 1998-04-11
   soldstatus $72,500

   Show marketing remark (246 chars)

   CHURCH TO MT CARMEL LEFT ON MT MATTERHORN RIGHT ON HOVSONS TO 1873 GREAT LAKEVIEW MODEL RECENTLY PAINTED AND SHOWS GREAT, VERY LARGE HOME NEW WINDOWS, , MANY UPGRADES VACANT AND PRICED TO SELL, SHOW TODAY AND CALL LB WITH ANY QUESTIONS OR OFFERS.

6. 1998-02-01
   historical

   Show marketing remark (246 chars)

   CHURCH TO MT CARMEL LEFT ON MT MATTERHORN RIGHT ON HOVSONS TO 1873 GREAT LAKEVIEW MODEL RECENTLY PAINTED AND SHOWS GREAT, VERY LARGE HOME NEW WINDOWS, , MANY UPGRADES VACANT AND PRICED TO SELL, SHOW TODAY AND CALL LB WITH ANY QUESTIONS OR OFFERS.

7. 1997-08-21
   listed $79,900

   Show marketing remark (246 chars)

   CHURCH TO MT CARMEL LEFT ON MT MATTERHORN RIGHT ON HOVSONS TO 1873 GREAT LAKEVIEW MODEL RECENTLY PAINTED AND SHOWS GREAT, VERY LARGE HOME NEW WINDOWS, , MANY UPGRADES VACANT AND PRICED TO SELL, SHOW TODAY AND CALL LB WITH ANY QUESTIONS OR OFFERS.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,889 · $241/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,935 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,045/yr (+$87/mo · 36.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,148
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,889
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,172
• − Management: −$2,172
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $1,594
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$383
• After-tax cash flow: $4,289/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 65,448
• Household income: $105,224
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 828.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -527.36%
• Current HPI: 374.5075
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.49%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+184.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Sold (MLS) $227,500 MOMLS
• 2026-06-13 Sold (MLS) $227,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-03 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-03 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-05-26 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $200,000 MOMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1998-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $72,500 Public Records
• 1998-04-11 Sold (MLS) $72,500 MOMLS
• 1998-02-01 Delisted — MOMLS
• 1997-08-21 Listed $79,900 MOMLS

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,889 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.