Lindburgh Plan · Olmsted Falls, OH 44138

$152,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 259 Days on market

Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Listed 259 days

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $153k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-30 ($-365/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.2% in Olmsted Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#343 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Olmsted Falls City (suburban): math 70% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #134 of 656 in OH (top 20%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 183 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,441 units permitted in Cuyahoga County in 2024 (700 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cuyahoga County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 259 days — a 12% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $129,900 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 259 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.85%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-26,696
• Equity at exit: $22,798

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-25,664
• Equity at exit: $13,220

Cash invested: $42,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44138

• Home prices YoY: -30.8%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,299 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$191 /mo · $2,294/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $-30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,338

Max offer price $148,494

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,225
• Closing costs: $4,587
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26875 Bagley Rd Olmsted Twp, OH	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	890	$1,299	$1.46	2d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $152,900 Active 259 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $152,900 Active 258 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $152,900 Active 257 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $152,900 Active 256 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $152,900 Active 254 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $152,900 Active 253 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $152,900 Active 250 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $152,900 Active 249 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $152,900 Active 248 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $152,900 Active 244 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $152,900 Active 243 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $152,900 Active 242 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $152,900 Active 241 DOM
14. 2026-03-13
    status Active
15. 2025-05-23
    historical
16. 2024-12-13
    listed $152,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,588
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,565
• − Property taxes: −$2,294
• − Insurance: −$764
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,247
• − Management: −$1,247
• − Depreciation: −$4,448
• Taxable loss: −$2,977
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$714
• After-tax cash flow: $349/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 40/100 Cosmetic rehab

A manufactured home with average condition, requiring minor repairs and maintenance. Simple updates can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint touch-ups — Paint appears faded in some areas
• Minor Window caulking — Some windows have visible gaps

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Window caulking — Sealing gaps can improve energy efficiency and appearance
• Both Landscaping upgrade — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint touch-ups · Paint appears faded in some areas	Minor	$500–3,000
Window caulking · Some windows have visible gaps	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Window caulking — Sealing gaps can improve energy efficiency and appearance ↑
• Both Landscaping upgrade — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Olmsted Falls City
• NCES district ID: 3904657
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $68,307
• Composite: 61.12/100
• National rank: #787
• State rank: #134 of 656 in OH

Livability — Olmsted Falls

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #343
• US rank: #5595

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cuyahoga · 1,045,444 people
• Metro: Cleveland, OH
• Population (ZIP): 23,129
• Household income: $93,877
• Rent vs Own: 23.4% rent · 76.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 7.6

Population outlook (Cuyahoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,244,621 people
• By 2030: 1,230,093 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 1,189,108 · -4.5%
• By 2050: 1,145,706 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 1,076,557 · -13.5%
• By 2100: 978,987 · -21.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cuyahoga

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+31.5) · D 65.4% · R 33.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 38.9pp · 2024: 31.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+31.5 2020: D+34.1 2016: D+35.0 2012: D+38.7 2008: D+38.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.76%
• Current HPI: 201.9716
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-05-23 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-12-13 Listed $152,900 Zillow