807 Colbert Ave · Warrington, FL 32507

$95,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1998

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property has screened-in porch, carport and shed. The roof is pitched so the ceilings are raised inside and the kitchen is open to the living room so it's nice and roomy. Master bedroom is on one end and additional bedroom is on the other. It's conveniently located close to the base and beaches. Shed has electricity.

Key facts

• Shed has electricity
• Screened-in porch
• Shed

Tags

• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• CARPORT
• SHED
• PITCHED ROOF
• OPEN KITCHEN
• SHED HAS ELECTRICITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $642 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 4.3% in Warrington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#631 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 702 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $95k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.97%
• DSCR: 2.29
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $22,772
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $61,667
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32507

• Home prices YoY: -4.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 702
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,538 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $416/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $642

Break-even live

Break-even rent $725

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1007 Winton Ave Unit B Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	810	$1,295	$1.60	23d	1	0.29mi
718 Mills Ave Unit A Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	728	$1,200	$1.65	23d	1	0.58mi
315 Flannan Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	836	$1,745	$2.09	14d	1	0.78mi
300 Gibbs Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1377	$1,999	$1.45	23d	1	0.80mi
570 Quigley Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,525	$1.28	23d	1	0.86mi
103 NW Kalash Rd Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	1250	$1,400	$1.12	23d	1	0.90mi
206 Berry Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,000	$1.34	23d	1	0.96mi
346 Quigley Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1021	$1,500	$1.47	23d	1	1.05mi
7591 W Highway 98 Pensacola, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	872	$1,781	$2.04	14d	9	1.06mi
45 W Carver Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	940	$1,325	$1.41	23d	1	1.21mi
7071 Lake Joanne Dr Unit 2A Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	23d	1	1.23mi
7071 Lake Joanne Dr Unit 2C Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	14d	1	1.23mi
542 S 72nd Ave Unit C Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	23d	1	1.27mi
26 N Lincoln Rd Unit B Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	759	$1,050	$1.38	14d	1	1.28mi
585 S 72nd Ave Pensacola, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	862	$1,300	$1.51	23d	3	1.28mi
7 Mindoro Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	924	$1,395	$1.51	23d	1	1.35mi
2 E Sunset Ave Unit 3 Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	806	$1,350	$1.67	23d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    listed $95,000 Active 318-char remark
15. 2019-05-14
    soldstatus $50,000
16. 2019-05-06
    soldstatus $49,999 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Property has screened-in porch, carport and shed. The roof is pitched so the ceilings are raised inside and the kitchen is open to the living room so it's nice and roomy. Master bedroom is on one end and additional bedroom is on the other. It's conveniently located close to the base and beaches. Shed has electricity.

17. 2019-03-01
    listed $59,900 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Property has screened-in porch, carport and shed. The roof is pitched so the ceilings are raised inside and the kitchen is open to the living room so it's nice and roomy. Master bedroom is on one end and additional bedroom is on the other. It's conveniently located close to the base and beaches. Shed has electricity.

18. 2014-03-04
    soldstatus $27,500

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    Looking for investment opportunity? Here it is! Conveniently located close to bases, shopping, and beaches! Two bedroom, two bath mobile home with large screened porch and handicap ramp! Yard completely fenced in, covered carport! New carpet and ceiling fans! Huge storage building with electricity!

19. 2013-08-12
    listed $28,900

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    Looking for investment opportunity? Here it is! Conveniently located close to bases, shopping, and beaches! Two bedroom, two bath mobile home with large screened porch and handicap ramp! Yard completely fenced in, covered carport! New carpet and ceiling fans! Huge storage building with electricity!

20. 2009-01-12
    historical
21. 2007-07-11
    listed $49,900
22. 1997-08-05
    soldstatus $11,000
23. 1996-02-01
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $416 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $788 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$372/yr (+$31/mo · 89.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,450
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$416
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,476
• − Management: −$1,476
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $6,522
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,565
• After-tax cash flow: $6,141/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Warrington

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #631
• US rank: #12396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warrington, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,226
• Household income: $73,540
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1175.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.23%
• Current HPI: 548.03
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.22%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+850.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $95,000 FSBO.com
• 2019-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2019-05-06 Sold (MLS) $49,999 PARMLS
• 2019-03-01 Listed $59,900 PARMLS
• 2014-03-04 Sold (MLS) $27,500 PARMLS
• 2013-08-12 Listed $28,900 PARMLS
• 2009-01-12 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2007-07-11 Listed $49,900 PARMLS
• 1997-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records
• 1996-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $416 · +41.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.