8 Freebern Rd · North Creek, NY 12853

$319,900

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,312 sqft · Townhouse public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1990 435 sqft lot Est $308k · at est. $390/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This highly efficient end unit has no stairs to climb to enter the unit. Has nice wooded views and views of Gore Mountain -- Excellent Condition

Key facts

• $390 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1990

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-6/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $320k (0.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $320k).
• Recommended offer: $320k (0.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.2% in North Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#683 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Johnsburg Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #521 of 755 in NY (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $90k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $320k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $319,805

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $308,320
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Freebern Rd Unit 12B	0.02mi	2/2.5	1,450 (+10%)	3mo	$300,000	$207	79
5 Freebern Rd Unit 5d	0.04mi	2/3.0	1,450 (+10%)	7mo	$300,000	$207	73
36 Freebern Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+14%)	6mo	$355,000	$237	59
30 Freebern Rd Unit 30c	0.08mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,500 (+14%)	9mo	$352,700	$235	58
22 Summit Ridge Rdg Unit 22N	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,450 (+10%)	23mo	$348,500	$240	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $174,454
• Equity at exit: $288,191

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.74×
• Total profit: $514,285
• Equity at exit: $621,495

Cash invested: $89,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12853

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,237 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$357 /mo · $4,278/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$390
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$680
• Net cashflow: $-1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,237

Max offer price $319,805

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,975
• Closing costs: $9,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $390 · $4,680/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-28
   listed $319,900 Active
3. 2020-03-11
   soldstatus $155,000
4. 2020-03-06
   soldstatus $155,000 Closed (Final Sale) 144-char remark

   Show marketing remark (144 chars)

   This highly efficient end unit has no stairs to climb to enter the unit. Has nice wooded views and views of Gore Mountain -- Excellent Condition

5. 2020-01-16
   listed $159,999 New 144-char remark

   Show marketing remark (144 chars)

   This highly efficient end unit has no stairs to climb to enter the unit. Has nice wooded views and views of Gore Mountain -- Excellent Condition

6. 2020-01-01
   historical
7. 2019-05-14
   listed $168,800 Active
8. 2019-04-16
   historical
9. 2017-01-15
   listed $168,800
10. 2010-03-01
    soldstatus $158,000
11. 2009-10-31
    historical
12. 2008-05-28
    listed $168,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,278 · $357/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,842 · $404/mo
• Expected delta: +$564/yr (+$47/mo · 13.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,838
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,919
• − Property taxes: −$4,278
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,107
• − Management: −$3,107
• − HOA: −$4,680
• − Depreciation: −$9,306
• Taxable loss: −$5,159
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,238
• After-tax cash flow: $1,232/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnsburg Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615870
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,308
• Composite: 42.4/100
• National rank: #6915
• State rank: #521 of 755 in NY

Livability — North Creek

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #683
• US rank: #12939

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Creek, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,384

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Asian 3% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Slovak 5% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.16%
• Current HPI: 310.7228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+89.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $319,900 Global MLS
• 2020-03-11 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2020-03-06 Sold (MLS) $155,000 Global MLS
• 2020-01-16 Listed $159,999 Global MLS
• 2020-01-01 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2019-05-14 Listed $168,800 Global MLS
• 2019-04-16 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2017-01-15 Listed $168,800 Global MLS
• 2010-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $158,000 Public Records
• 2009-10-31 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2008-05-28 Listed $168,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,278 · +46.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.