2216 Moonstruck Pl · Celina, TX 75009

$3,600

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,933 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2023 7,971 sqft lot $147/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One story, 60 feet lot home finished 11-16-2023. It is a Perry Homes 2885 plan in park at Wilson Creek community with a lot of upgrades, 12 inchs ceiling and level 3 wood floors in whole open area, countertops and faucets are upgraded. Large primary bedroom and bathroom. Guest bedroom is with a private bathroom. Separate 3 car garage.

Key facts

• 7,971 sq ft lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2023

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Parks At Wilson Creek Phase 1; No known restrictions
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with monthly fee; HOA fee $147 monthly; HOA management by AAMC

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 3-car garage with garage door opener (garage faces front); Covered parking for 3 vehicles; Carport space for 4 additional vehicles; Additional parking and direct access
• Security: Prewired security; Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors; Fire alarm
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity available and connected; Individual gas meter; Individual water meter; Part of a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story; Built in 2023; Brick exterior
• Construction: Brick construction; Asphalt roof; Slab foundation; Smart home features enabled
• Exterior features: Wood privacy fence with gate around backyard; Front yard maintenance included by HOA

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas range; Gas oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Vented exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level (22 x 15); Total of 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fans; HVAC energy-efficient features (mechanical fresh air, efficient HVAC and lighting)
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Open floorplan; Kitchen island; Pantry; Double vanity; Chandelier and decorative lighting; Cable TV available; Smart home system (app/voice control); Wired for data; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality
• Laundry & utility: Tankless gas water heater; Gas water heater

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $3,600 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$527,940) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $4k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($31k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $4k).
• Cap rate 878.9% vs local median 2.8% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 2895 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $25 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $108 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $1k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $3,600

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 98.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 878.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 3116.43%
• DSCR: 139.66
• GRM: 0.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $527,940
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1812 Bistineau Ct	0.41mi	4/3.5	3,118 (+6%)	0mo	$699,900	$224	70
1900 Palmetto Rd	0.47mi	4/3.0	3,024 (+3%)	0mo	$534,990	$177	70
2608 Muirwood Way	0.48mi	4/3.5	2,834 (-3%)	3mo	$475,000	$168	70
2149 Ten Mile Creek Dr	0.47mi	4/3.0	3,039 (+4%)	1mo	$624,990	$206	69
2124 Ten Mile Creek Rd	0.41mi	4/3.5	3,164 (+8%)	0mo	$569,000	$180	67
1610 Foxtail Dr	0.59mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,013 (+3%)	4mo	$522,927	$174	58
1121 Saltbrush Mews	0.71mi	4/3.5	3,162 (+8%)	0mo	$497,945	$157	54
1117 Saltbrush Mews	0.71mi	4/3.5	3,181 (+8%)	1mo	$483,950	$152	52
2226 Ten Mile Creek Rd	0.56mi	4/4.0	3,286 (+12%)	2mo	$595,000	$181	50
1712 Palo Duro Way	0.61mi	4/3.5	3,342 (+14%)	4mo	$599,900	$180	45
1805 Penstemon Dr	0.71mi	4/3.5	2,596 (-12%)	4mo	$489,965	$189	45
1932 Yaupon Ct	0.73mi	4/4.5	3,363 (+15%)	3mo	$664,326	$198	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 155.70×
• Total profit: $155,941
• Equity at exit: $537

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 309.60×
• Total profit: $311,071
• Equity at exit: $311

Cash invested: $1,008 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 2895
• Price-to-rent: 0.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,531 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$19
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$4 /mo · $54/yr
• Insurance: −$2
• HOA: −$147
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$742
• Net cashflow: $2,618

Break-even live

Break-even rent $218

Max offer price $3,600

Occupancy floor 21%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $900
• Closing costs: $108
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2437 Plumeria Ln Celina, TX	5.0	5.0	3257	$3,611	$1.11	44d	1	0.30mi
1637 Palo Duro Way Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$5,800	$2.28	1d	1	0.60mi
1720 Yaupon Ct Celina, TX	4.0	5.0	3271	$3,450	$1.05	24d	1	0.83mi
2004 Huntersridge Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2815	$3,200	$1.14	24d	1	0.89mi
1513 Mill Creek Way Celina, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1364	$2,995	$2.19	1d	12	1.02mi
2009 Brookhurst St Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2386	$2,895	$1.21	19d	1	1.02mi
2706 Boca Dr Prosper, TX	4.0	3.0	2102	$3,445	$1.64	44d	1	1.13mi
1837 Whispering Pines Dr Celina, TX	5.0	4.0	3670	$3,550	$0.97	1d	1	1.13mi
2522 Runhappy Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2395	$3,500	$1.46	44d	1	1.25mi
2432 Preakness Pl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2309	$3,500	$1.52	44d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $147 · $1,764/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $3,600 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $3,600 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $3,600 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $3,600 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-05-27
   listed $3,600 Active
6. 2025-08-06
   historical $3,600
7. 2025-07-01
   price $3,600
8. 2025-06-17
   price $3,750
9. 2025-06-07
   listed $4,000
10. 2024-06-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,375
• − Mortgage interest: −$202
• − Property taxes: −$54
• − Insurance: −$18
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,390
• − Management: −$3,390
• − HOA: −$1,764
• − Depreciation: −$105
• Taxable income: $33,453
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$8,029
• After-tax cash flow: $23,385/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 152.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $3,600 NTREIS
• 2025-08-06 Rental Removed $3,600 NTREIS
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $3,600 NTREIS
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $3,750 NTREIS
• 2025-06-07 Listed for Rent $4,000 NTREIS
• 2024-06-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+166.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $13,778 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.