15409 Piney Oaks Ln · Iola, TX 77861

$274,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1990 9.06 ac lot Est $310k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Located very close to Bryan/College Station (Texas A & M University) and Houston, this heavily wooded and fully fenced 9.06 AC tract in Iola, TX offers two ponds, a 720 sq ft home, numerous outbuildings, and prime for recreational or residential use. Build your dream home, invest in the home currently on property, camp, the possibilities are endless! Featuring wildlife and open skies, let your imagination create the vision that can only be yours in this amazing outdoor setting. Priced to sell! Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• Two ponds
• Outdoor setting

Tags

• FULLY FENCED
• TWO PONDS
• NUMEROUS OUTBUILDINGS
• PRIME FOR RECREATIONAL USE
• OUTDOOR SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-355 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (22.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (35.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (35.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,107 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Iola ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #163 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Grimes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Grimes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $275k implies a 1274% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,495 (35.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.53%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $310,320
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14710 Yerby Rd	0.60mi	1/1.0 (-1)	720 (0%)	15mo	$310,000	$431	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $127,054
• Equity at exit: $247,652

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.09×
• Total profit: $391,807
• Equity at exit: $534,070

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77861

• Home prices YoY: 23.3%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,775 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$201 /mo · $2,411/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $-355

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,224

Max offer price $212,208

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-199	-5% $-277	+0% $-355	+5% $-433	+10% $-511
Rent	-10% $-495	-5% $-425	+0% $-355	+5% $-285	+10% $-215
Rate	-1.0pp $-216	-0.5pp $-285	base $-355	+0.5pp $-426	+1.0pp $-499

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-22
   listed $274,900 Active
4. 2017-12-18
   soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,411 · $201/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,031 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,619/yr (+$218/mo · 108.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,299
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$2,411
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,704
• − Management: −$1,704
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$9,290
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,230
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,029/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Iola ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824240
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,213
• Composite: 43.58/100
• National rank: #2979
• State rank: #163 of 826 in TX

Livability — Iola

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1107
• US rank: #19600

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,785

Population outlook (Grimes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,910 people
• By 2030: 29,539 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 30,648 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 31,698 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 34,351 · +18.8%
• By 2100: 33,565 · +16.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Grimes

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.3) · D 19.5% · R 79.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.9pp toward R · 2008: -34.3pp · 2024: -60.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.3 2020: R+53.2 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+44.2 2008: R+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 50.14%
• Current HPI: 264.958
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1274.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Pending — BCSRMLS
• 2026-03-25 Contingent — BCSRMLS
• 2026-03-22 Listed $274,900 BCSRMLS
• 2017-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,411 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.