42 County Road 2802 · Cleveland, TX 77327

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 17 Days on market

Built 2016 0.64 ac lot Est $159k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.2/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

42 County Road 2802 is a 3/4 AC lot with beautiful trees, no restrictions and plenty of room for activity. Spring Oaks subdivision is located in the highly desirable Tarkington, which is just a few miles from downtown Cleveland. Neighborhood is very family friendly, quiet and lots of nature around you. Home is in very good condition, with amazing finished high end kitchen with upgrades and lots of room for storage. 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths and central AC. Property has full functioning aerobic septic system, public water, and electrical. Property has an amazing exterior fireplace for those cold winter nights or even cooking. Please feel free to contact me regarding any questions or to schedule showings.

Key facts

• 0.64 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2016

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; 2-space carport; Driveway; Additional parking; Electric gate
• Security: Security gate; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2016; Composition roof; Concrete road access; Subdivision lot (cleared); Has additional parcels
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Built in 2016
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Porch; Deck; Patio; Paved driveway; Fully fenced backyard; Fence at backyard; Storage shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Space for 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Kitchen and family room combo; Kitchen and dining combo; Laminate counters; Tub with shower; Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-68/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.6% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tarkington ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #373 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tarkington Early Childhood School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 193 students, 66% FRL); Tarkington Middle (math 45% / reading 32%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 414 students, 58% FRL); Tarkington H S (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 513 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1577 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,119 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.13%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $159,296
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
188 County Road 2800	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	7mo	$159,900	$131	82
40 County Road 2801	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+3%)	8mo	$159,900	$128	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-28,677
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-18,479
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1577
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,611 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,775/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $-6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,618

Max offer price $184,182

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $122	-5% $58	+0% $-6	+5% $-70	+10% $-134
Rent	-10% $-133	-5% $-69	+0% $-6	+5% $58	+10% $122
Rate	-1.0pp $88	-0.5pp $41	base $-6	+0.5pp $-54	+1.0pp $-102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-04
    listed $185,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,334
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,775
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,547
• − Management: −$1,547
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$3,204
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$769
• After-tax cash flow: $701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tarkington ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842210
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,895
• Composite: 35.02/100
• National rank: #5044
• State rank: #373 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+518.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Coming Soon $185,000 HARMLS
• 2022-10-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-10-13 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-09-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-08-21 Price Changed $149,999 HARMLS
• 2022-07-14 Price Changed $169,999 HARMLS
• 2022-06-07 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2022-04-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-04-04 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-03-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-02-21 Listed $45,000 HARMLS
• 2007-03-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-02-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-01-05 Listed $19,900 HARMLS
• 2004-05-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2003-10-11 Listed $29,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $189 · -65.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.