38 Split Rock Rd · The Woodlands, TX 77381

$475,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,316 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1983 0.26 ac lot $205/sqft · 15% below area Est $560k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CUSTOM HOME IN BEAUTIFUL WEDGEWOOD FOREST - CLOSE TO THE FRONT OF THE WOODLANDS. LARGE AND ROOMY - 4 BEDROOMS, 2.5 BATHS - MASTER DOWN - Home remodeled in May, 2016 with new stainless appliances, granite counters in kitchen and bathrooms, light fixtures, bath tub in master, new tile surround, fresh paint inside & outside, laminate in entry, dining & family rooms, new carpeting, new roof, sheet rock in the garage. Too much to describe here - must see for yourself. Hurry!

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1983; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding exterior
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Private yard; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (20 x 12.5); Bedroom on second floor (10.5 x 11.5); Bedroom on second floor (14 x 11.5); Bedroom on second floor (17 x 12.5)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $475k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-487 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $389k (18.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $347k (27.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $347k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ride El (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A, #55 of 4,322 statewide, top 1%, 569 students, 32% FRL); Knox J H (math 65% / reading 67%, grade A-, #92 of 1,662 statewide, top 6%, 1,448 students, 31% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 261 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $475k implies a 227% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $346,972 (27.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.39%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $559,620
• List price: $475,000
• Delta: -15.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
38 Split Rock Rd	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,316 (0%)	1mo	$475,000	$205	99
4 Hickory Oak Dr	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,367 (+2%)	6mo	$400,000	$169	74
3 Ridgeline Ct	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,394 (+3%)	4mo	$479,900	$200	68
6 Fairmeade Bend Dr	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,150 (-7%)	6mo	$400,000	$186	66
14 Ridgeline Ct	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,464 (+6%)	1mo	$497,000	$202	66
16 Terravale Ct	0.12mi	4/3.5	2,658 (+15%)	1mo	$515,000	$194	65
17 Greenridge Forest Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,408 (+4%)	1mo	$535,000	$222	64
11 Feather Branch Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,507 (+8%)	1mo	$590,000	$235	57
110 S Mill Trace Dr	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,221 (-4%)	1mo	$525,000	$236	57
19 Hickory Oak Dr	0.44mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,508 (+8%)	6mo	$498,000	$199	56
12 Dunlin Meadow Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,575 (+11%)	4mo	$585,000	$227	55
18 Mayfair Grove Ct	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,544 (+10%)	2mo	$575,000	$226	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-111,095
• Equity at exit: $70,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-149,260
• Equity at exit: $41,069

Cash invested: $133,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77381

• Home prices YoY: -31.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 261
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,470 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax from tax record: −$539 /mo · $6,466/yr
• Insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$729
• Net cashflow: $-487

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,086

Max offer price $389,032

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-218	-5% $-352	+0% $-487	+5% $-621	+10% $-756
Rent	-10% $-761	-5% $-624	+0% $-487	+5% $-350	+10% $-213
Rate	-1.0pp $-247	-0.5pp $-366	base $-487	+0.5pp $-610	+1.0pp $-735

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,750
• Closing costs: $14,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1950 Hughes Landing Blvd Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1162	$4,613	$3.97	0d	39	1.32mi
1956 Hughes Landing Blvd The Woodlands, TX	3.0	2.0	1645	$3,865	$2.35	45d	1	1.34mi
15 Thorn Berry Pl Spring, TX	4.0	2.5	2100	$2,595	$1.24	22d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 845-char remark
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $475,000 Active 845-char remark
3. 2026-04-29
   historical $475,000 845-char remark
4. 2021-04-28
   soldstatus
5. 2021-04-27
   soldstatus Sold 486-char remark

   Show marketing remark (486 chars)

   CUSTOM HOME IN BEAUTIFUL WEDGEWOOD FOREST - CLOSE TO THE FRONT OF THE WOODLANDS. LARGE AND ROOMY - 4 BEDROOMS, 2.5 BATHS - MASTER DOWN - Home remodeled in May, 2016 with new stainless appliances, granite counters in kitchen and bathrooms, light fixtures, bath tub in master, new tile surround, fresh paint inside & outside, laminate in entry, dining & family rooms, new carpeting, new roof, sheet rock in the garage. Too much to describe here - must see for yourself. Hurry!

6. 2021-02-09
   status Pending 486-char remark

   Show marketing remark (486 chars)

   CUSTOM HOME IN BEAUTIFUL WEDGEWOOD FOREST - CLOSE TO THE FRONT OF THE WOODLANDS. LARGE AND ROOMY - 4 BEDROOMS, 2.5 BATHS - MASTER DOWN - Home remodeled in May, 2016 with new stainless appliances, granite counters in kitchen and bathrooms, light fixtures, bath tub in master, new tile surround, fresh paint inside & outside, laminate in entry, dining & family rooms, new carpeting, new roof, sheet rock in the garage. Too much to describe here - must see for yourself. Hurry!

7. 2021-02-09
   listed $320,000 Active 486-char remark

   Show marketing remark (486 chars)

   CUSTOM HOME IN BEAUTIFUL WEDGEWOOD FOREST - CLOSE TO THE FRONT OF THE WOODLANDS. LARGE AND ROOMY - 4 BEDROOMS, 2.5 BATHS - MASTER DOWN - Home remodeled in May, 2016 with new stainless appliances, granite counters in kitchen and bathrooms, light fixtures, bath tub in master, new tile surround, fresh paint inside & outside, laminate in entry, dining & family rooms, new carpeting, new roof, sheet rock in the garage. Too much to describe here - must see for yourself. Hurry!

8. 1993-07-01
   soldstatus $145,435

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,466 · $539/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,692 · $724/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,226/yr (+$186/mo · 34.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,637
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,607
• − Property taxes: −$6,466
• − Insurance: −$2,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,331
• − Management: −$3,331
• − Depreciation: −$13,818
• Taxable loss: −$14,292
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,430
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,410/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Woodlands, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,139
• Household income: $143,565
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 530.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.06%
• Current HPI: 271.7165
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+226.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-06-02 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $475,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Coming Soon $475,000 HARMLS
• 2021-04-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-04-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-02-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-02-09 Listed $320,000 HARMLS
• 1993-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $145,435 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,466 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.