49 Blanca Ln #33 · Watsonville, CA 95076

$454,950

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,325 sqft · Manufactured · 99 Days on market

Built 2025 Est $429k · 6% over ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICED TO SELL. ALL AGE PARK, POOL/SPA AND CLUBHOUSE. NOTE THIS COACH HAS 3 BEDROOMS. SPACE #33 IS ON THE FIRST STREET WHERE YOU CAN MAKE A RIGHT AFTER YOU ENTER THE PARK OFF OF BLANCA LANE. LOCK BOX IS ON POLE IN PATIO AREA NEXT

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 2025
• Listed 99 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Watsonville, CA 95076 (Meadows Manor Mobile Home Community, Unit #33)
• Financial info: Monthly land lease listed as $895 (land lease flag indicates No)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Individual and master electric meters; 220V outlet in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide); Clayton Fairpoint manufactured home; Year built 2025
• Construction: Wood skirting
• Exterior features: Composition roof; No notable lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Free standing refrigerator; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Bathrooms include tub with shower over and separate shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ceiling fans (no central air)
• Interior features: Stone kitchen counters; Kitchen open to family area; Living room with additional features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry hookups inside (inside room/area)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $455k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $438k (3.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $414k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.9% in Watsonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#323 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Pajaro Valley Unified (urban): math 75% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #43 of 517 in CA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 122 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 224 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,382/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($91k/yr) (locally 3051% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Cruz County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $455k implies a 848% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $414,004 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.99%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $429,300
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
49 Blanca Ln #212	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,344 (+1%)	20mo	$435,000	$324	78
49 Blanca Ln #817	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,215 (-8%)	11mo	$379,000	$312	70
49 Blanca Ln #822	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,140 (-14%)	10mo	$390,000	$342	61
501 S Green Valley Rd #85	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,200 (-9%)	14mo	$405,000	$338	38
501 S Green Valley Rd #3	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,495 (+13%)	21mo	$432,500	$289	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-36,797
• Equity at exit: $67,835

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $67,842
• Equity at exit: $39,336

Cash invested: $127,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95076

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,382 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,386
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$569 /mo · $6,824/yr
• Insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$920
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,980

Max offer price $454,950

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $113,738
• Closing costs: $13,648
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
48 Jeanette Way Watsonville, CA	3.0	2.0	1408	$4,999	$3.55	13d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $454,950 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $454,950 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $454,950 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $454,950 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $454,950 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $454,950 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $454,950 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $454,950 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $454,950 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $454,950 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $454,950 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $454,950 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $454,950 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $454,950 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $454,950 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $454,950 Active 80 DOM
17. 1999-01-19
    historical 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL. ALL AGE PARK, POOL/SPA AND CLUBHOUSE. NOTE THIS COACH HAS 3 BEDROOMS. SPACE #33 IS ON THE FIRST STREET WHERE YOU CAN MAKE A RIGHT AFTER YOU ENTER THE PARK OFF OF BLANCA LANE. LOCK BOX IS ON POLE IN PATIO AREA NEXT

18. 1999-01-07
    soldstatus $48,000 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL. ALL AGE PARK, POOL/SPA AND CLUBHOUSE. NOTE THIS COACH HAS 3 BEDROOMS. SPACE #33 IS ON THE FIRST STREET WHERE YOU CAN MAKE A RIGHT AFTER YOU ENTER THE PARK OFF OF BLANCA LANE. LOCK BOX IS ON POLE IN PATIO AREA NEXT

19. 1998-12-31
    listed $49,900 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL. ALL AGE PARK, POOL/SPA AND CLUBHOUSE. NOTE THIS COACH HAS 3 BEDROOMS. SPACE #33 IS ON THE FIRST STREET WHERE YOU CAN MAKE A RIGHT AFTER YOU ENTER THE PARK OFF OF BLANCA LANE. LOCK BOX IS ON POLE IN PATIO AREA NEXT

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥85°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,581
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,484
• − Property taxes: −$6,824
• − Insurance: −$2,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,207
• − Management: −$4,207
• − Depreciation: −$13,235
• Taxable loss: −$3,650
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$876
• After-tax cash flow: $4,687/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pajaro Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0629490
• Math proficiency: 75% ▲ 52.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▲ 42.00%
• Median HH income: $60,619
• Composite: 64.53/100
• National rank: #537
• State rank: #43 of 517 in CA

Livability — Watsonville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #323
• US rank: #10972

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment C Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watsonville, CA
• County: Santa Cruz County · 225,113 people
• City population: 82,806
• Metro: Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA
• Population (ZIP): 82,806
• Household income: $91,099
• Rent vs Own: 43.3% rent · 56.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 3051.0

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 299,046 people
• By 2030: 311,246 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 332,813 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 352,797 · +18.0%
• By 2075: 406,837 · +36.0%
• By 2100: 435,763 · +45.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% White 22% Two or more races 19% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 69%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada
• Languages at home: 35% English-only · Spanish 61% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+54.4) · D 75.3% · R 20.9% · Other 3.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 57.7pp · 2024: 54.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+54.4 2020: D+60.3 2016: D+57.3 2012: D+54.1 2008: D+57.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -883.52%
• Current HPI: 273.5604
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.64%
• Metro: Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 1999-01-19 Listing Removed — MLSListings
• 1999-01-07 Sold (MLS) $48,000 MLSListings
• 1998-12-31 Listed $49,900 MLSListings