1095 Pine Valley Rd · Upper Brookville, NY 11771

$3,499,999

6 bd · 5.5 ba · 7,366 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1951 2.25 ac lot $475/sqft · 9% below area Est $4312k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• Schools +7.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this exceptional estate tucked away at the end of a long, winding driveway on just over two pristine acres in Upper Brookville. This stunning property offers the perfect blend of luxury, comfort, and versatility. The main residence features 5 bedrooms and 4.5 fully updated bathrooms across two thoughtfully designed levels. The expansive first floor hosts 4 bedrooms and 3.5 bathrooms, while the second floor offers a private bedroom with a full bath — all beneath dramatic double-height ceilings that flood every room with natural light. Sliding glass doors throughout all living areas seamlessly connect the indoors to the gorgeous grounds outside. The gourmet kitchen and all bathrooms have been meticulously updated with high-end finishes throughout. Radiant heated floors, four-zone AC and heat, integrated Sonos speakers, central vacuum, and a full-house generator ensure effortless comfort and year-round peace of mind. Outside, resort-style living awaits with a heated gunite pool featuring stunning waterfall and fountain elements, a outdoor kitchen, and beautifully manicured grounds. A separate one-bedroom guest cottage with a full kitchen, living room, and dining room provides ideal accommodations for guests or extended family. A three-car garage with its own basement completes this remarkable offering.

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Manicured grounds
• Heated gunite pool

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• HEATED GUNITE POOL
• OUTDOOR KITCHEN
• SEPARATE GUEST COTTAGE
• MANICURED GROUNDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/5.5-bath multifamily listed at $3.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($90/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.88M (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.88M (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,153 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Locust Valley Central School District (suburban): math 83% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #38 of 590 in NY (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $24k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $105k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($3.39M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.60M; list at $3.50M implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,880,000 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $4,311,879
• List price: $3,499,999
• Delta: -18.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-567,123
• Equity at exit: $521,861

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-495,060
• Equity at exit: $302,616

Cash invested: $980,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11771

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $28,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$18,354
• Tax from tax record: −$2,932 /mo · $35,181/yr
• Insurance: −$1,458
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,048
• Net cashflow: $8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $28,790

Max offer price $3,499,999

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,989	-5% $998	+0% $8	+5% $-983	+10% $-1,974
Rent	-10% $-2,268	-5% $-1,130	+0% $8	+5% $1,145	+10% $2,283
Rate	-1.0pp $1,770	-0.5pp $898	base $8	+0.5pp $-899	+1.0pp $-1,822

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $875,000
• Closing costs: $105,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
121 Piping Rock Rd Locust Valley, NY	7.0	5.5	9329	$28,800	$3.09	2d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $3,499,999 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $3,499,999 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $3,499,999 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $3,499,999 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,499,999 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,499,999 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $3,499,999 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $3,499,999 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $3,499,999 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $3,499,999 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $3,499,999 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $3,499,999 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $3,499,999 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $3,499,999 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-04-22
    listed $3,499,999 Active 1337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1337 chars)

    Welcome to this exceptional estate tucked away at the end of a long, winding driveway on just over two pristine acres in Upper Brookville. This stunning property offers the perfect blend of luxury, comfort, and versatility. The main residence features 5 bedrooms and 4.5 fully updated bathrooms across two thoughtfully designed levels. The expansive first floor hosts 4 bedrooms and 3.5 bathrooms, while the second floor offers a private bedroom with a full bath — all beneath dramatic double-height ceilings that flood every room with natural light. Sliding glass doors throughout all living areas seamlessly connect the indoors to the gorgeous grounds outside. The gourmet kitchen and all bathrooms have been meticulously updated with high-end finishes throughout. Radiant heated floors, four-zone AC and heat, integrated Sonos speakers, central vacuum, and a full-house generator ensure effortless comfort and year-round peace of mind. Outside, resort-style living awaits with a heated gunite pool featuring stunning waterfall and fountain elements, a outdoor kitchen, and beautifully manicured grounds. A separate one-bedroom guest cottage with a full kitchen, living room, and dining room provides ideal accommodations for guests or extended family. A three-car garage with its own basement completes this remarkable offering.

16. 2016-06-23
    soldstatus $1,600,000
17. 2016-05-31
    historical
18. 2015-12-20
    listed $1,848,000
19. 2015-09-12
    historical
20. 2015-03-13
    listed $1,848,000
21. 2014-04-21
    historical
22. 2013-05-17
    listed $1,899,000
23. 2012-10-31
    historical
24. 2012-03-19
    listed $2,099,000
25. 1997-04-08
    soldstatus $995,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $35,181 · $2,932/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $47,166 · $3,930/mo
• Expected delta: +$11,984/yr (+$999/mo · 34.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $345,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$196,054
• − Property taxes: −$35,181
• − Insurance: −$17,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$27,648
• − Management: −$27,648
• − Depreciation: −$101,818
• Taxable loss: −$60,250
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$14,460
• After-tax cash flow: $14,550/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Locust Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617700
• Math proficiency: 83% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $104,480
• Composite: 73.72/100
• National rank: #171
• State rank: #38 of 590 in NY

Livability — Upper Brookville

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1153
• US rank: #24111

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Brookville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,173

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 9% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.23%
• Current HPI: 255.4961
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+251.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $3,499,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $1,600,000 Public Records
• 2016-05-31 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-20 Listed $1,848,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-12 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-13 Listed $1,848,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-21 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-05-17 Listed $1,899,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-31 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-19 Listed $2,099,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $995,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $35,181 · +11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.