6236 Botticella Blvd · Winter Haven, FL 33884

$289,490

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,112 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The first floor of this new two-story home is host to an open-concept layout that combines the kitchen with the living and dining areas, and an outdoor patio is easily reached off the main living space. Upstairs, five bedrooms surround a versatile loft, including the luxe owner's suite, complete with a generous walk-in closet and en-suite bathroom.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bathroom
• Outdoor patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• OUTDOOR PATIO
• VERSATILE LOFT
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $289,490

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family new-construction (Edison plan)
• Exterior features: Property at 6236 Botticella Blvd, Winter Haven, FL 33884

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec new-construction home (Edison plan); Living area approximately 2,112

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 680 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,321 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.28%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-55,021
• Equity at exit: $43,164

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-65,485
• Equity at exit: $25,030

Cash invested: $81,057 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33884

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 680
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,423 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,518
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,342/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $-86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,532

Max offer price $277,007

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,372
• Closing costs: $8,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6428 Domizio Dr Winter Haven, FL	5.0	2.5	2112	$2,200	$1.04	23d	1	0.04mi
6204 Botticella Blvd Winter Haven, FL	5.0	2.5	2280	$2,350	$1.03	3d	1	0.04mi
6472 Domizio Dr Winter Haven, FL	5.0	2.5	2112	$2,300	$1.09	23d	1	0.07mi
3511 Costello Cir Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	2234	$2,100	$0.94	23d	1	0.19mi
4506 Rapallo Ave Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1754	$1,899	$1.08	23d	1	0.29mi
3412 Costello Cir Winter Haven, FL	5.0	3.0	2540	$2,500	$0.98	23d	1	0.32mi
2772 San Marco Way Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	1988	$2,200	$1.11	23d	1	0.34mi
4442 Rapallo Ave Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1607	$1,895	$1.18	23d	1	0.40mi
632 Vittorio Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1597	$1,895	$1.19	23d	1	0.64mi
2107 Cartgate Ln Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	2217	$2,600	$1.17	23d	1	0.66mi
2116 Cartgate Ln Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	2217	$2,500	$1.13	23d	1	0.67mi
1310 Benevento Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1964	$2,500	$1.27	23d	1	0.73mi
1343 Benevento Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1849	$2,000	$1.08	14d	1	0.76mi
810 Terranova Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	2056	$1,900	$0.92	23d	1	0.83mi
850 Terranova Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1770	$2,176	$1.23	3d	1	0.85mi
397 Corso Loop Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,395	$1.29	3d	1	0.86mi
554 Reddicks Cir Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,000	$1.00	10d	1	0.93mi
219 Cloverdale Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,300	$1.24	23d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-13
   remarks 350-char remark
2. 2026-06-13
   listed $289,490 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,079
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,216
• − Property taxes: −$4,342
• − Insurance: −$1,447
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,326
• − Management: −$2,326
• − Depreciation: −$8,422
• Taxable loss: −$6,001
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,440
• After-tax cash flow: $405/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,561
• Household income: $70,443
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.69%
• Current HPI: 260.1421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B