13 Creamery · Livingston Manor, NY 12758

$280,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 259 Days on market

Built 2016 $127/sqft · 34% below area Est $426k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE REDUCED 12/4/25 to 299900..LOCATION LOCATION. .This 2,200 Sq. ft. 3 bedroom one bathroom house is in the Hamlet of Livingston Manor.this house has municipal water and sewer... walk to all of the town amenities.. great weekend house/air b n b or live here for all the 4 seasons in the Catskill Mountains.. ..Low taxes..12'ceilings with a large family room with a huge dry bar..HIGH SPEED INTERNET. .over sized bathroom ..large bedrooms. .large eat in kitchen..the Cattail Brook runs along a section at the back of the property yearround..pull up a chair and buy a firepit and relax by the babbling brook..and an added bonus this property is flat and is zoned commerical ..nearby is Bethel woods/Casino/water park and lots of shopping in Liberty or Monticello..2 hours to NYC..come and take a look..all offers presented

Key facts

• Cattail brook
• High speed internet
• Built 2016

Tags

• HAMLET OF LIVINGSTON MANOR
• WALK TO ALL TOWN AMENITIES
• HIGH SPEED INTERNET
• CATTAIL BROOK
• FLAT AND ZONED COMMERCIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-305 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (19.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (30.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (30.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.0% in Livingston Manor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,173 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Livingston Manor Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #456 of 755 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 259 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $69k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $195,727 (30.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 259 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.67%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $425,553
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: -34.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Dubois St	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,986 (-10%)	1mo	$475,000	$239	69
17 Hazel Spur Rd	0.17mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,346 (+7%)	11mo	$489,000	$208	59
534 Old Route 17	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,900 (-14%)	6mo	$372,000	$196	42
16 Hazel Rd	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,932 (-12%)	12mo	$465,000	$241	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $133,059
• Equity at exit: $252,246

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.19×
• Total profit: $407,060
• Equity at exit: $543,978

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12758

• Home prices YoY: 15.4%
• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,957 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$266 /mo · $3,193/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $-305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,343

Max offer price $226,152

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 259 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,000 Active 258 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,000 Active 257 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,000 Active 256 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,000 Active 254 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $280,000 Active 253 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $280,000 Active 250 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $280,000 Active 249 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $280,000 Active 248 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $280,000 Active 247 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $280,000 Active 244 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,000 Active 243 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,000 Active 242 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,000 Active 241 DOM
15. 2025-12-05
    price $299,900 824-char remark

    Show marketing remark (824 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED 12/4/25 to 299900..LOCATION LOCATION. .This 2,200 Sq. ft. 3 bedroom one bathroom house is in the Hamlet of Livingston Manor.this house has municipal water and sewer... walk to all of the town amenities.. great weekend house/air b n b or live here for all the 4 seasons in the Catskill Mountains.. ..Low taxes..12'ceilings with a large family room with a huge dry bar..HIGH SPEED INTERNET. .over sized bathroom ..large bedrooms. .large eat in kitchen..the Cattail Brook runs along a section at the back of the property yearround..pull up a chair and buy a firepit and relax by the babbling brook..and an added bonus this property is flat and is zoned commerical ..nearby is Bethel woods/Casino/water park and lots of shopping in Liberty or Monticello..2 hours to NYC..come and take a look..all offers presented

16. 2025-10-26
    price $329,000 824-char remark

    Show marketing remark (824 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED 12/4/25 to 299900..LOCATION LOCATION. .This 2,200 Sq. ft. 3 bedroom one bathroom house is in the Hamlet of Livingston Manor.this house has municipal water and sewer... walk to all of the town amenities.. great weekend house/air b n b or live here for all the 4 seasons in the Catskill Mountains.. ..Low taxes..12'ceilings with a large family room with a huge dry bar..HIGH SPEED INTERNET. .over sized bathroom ..large bedrooms. .large eat in kitchen..the Cattail Brook runs along a section at the back of the property yearround..pull up a chair and buy a firepit and relax by the babbling brook..and an added bonus this property is flat and is zoned commerical ..nearby is Bethel woods/Casino/water park and lots of shopping in Liberty or Monticello..2 hours to NYC..come and take a look..all offers presented

17. 2025-10-02
    listed $349,000 Active 824-char remark

    Show marketing remark (824 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED 12/4/25 to 299900..LOCATION LOCATION. .This 2,200 Sq. ft. 3 bedroom one bathroom house is in the Hamlet of Livingston Manor.this house has municipal water and sewer... walk to all of the town amenities.. great weekend house/air b n b or live here for all the 4 seasons in the Catskill Mountains.. ..Low taxes..12'ceilings with a large family room with a huge dry bar..HIGH SPEED INTERNET. .over sized bathroom ..large bedrooms. .large eat in kitchen..the Cattail Brook runs along a section at the back of the property yearround..pull up a chair and buy a firepit and relax by the babbling brook..and an added bonus this property is flat and is zoned commerical ..nearby is Bethel woods/Casino/water park and lots of shopping in Liberty or Monticello..2 hours to NYC..come and take a look..all offers presented

18. 2023-09-08
    listed $425,000 Active
19. 2023-03-10
    historical
20. 2022-06-03
    listed $418,000 Active
21. 2021-03-23
    historical
22. 2021-03-04
    listed $329,000 Active
23. 2020-12-28
    historical
24. 2020-06-28
    listed $299,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,193 · $266/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,962 · $330/mo
• Expected delta: +$770/yr (+$64/mo · 24.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,487
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$3,193
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,879
• − Management: −$1,879
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$8,693
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,086
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,572/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Manor Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617580
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $51,401
• Composite: 44.96/100
• National rank: #5872
• State rank: #456 of 755 in NY

Livability — Livingston Manor

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1173
• US rank: #25609

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Livingston Manor, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,061

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Danish 4% Subsaharan African 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 59.59%
• Current HPI: 446.6757
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $299,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-26 Price Changed $329,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-02 Listed $349,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-08 Listed $425,000 PWMLS
• 2023-03-10 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-03 Listed $418,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-23 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-04 Listed $329,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-28 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-28 Listed $299,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid