440 Trails End Dr · Camp Nelson, CA 93265

$170,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 948 sqft · SingleFamily · 89 Days on market

9,583 sqft lot Est $161k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +1.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a rustic mountain cabin with some updates and a lot of potential? Well, here you go! This charming cabin located in an older section of Camp Nelson features wood floors and ceilings, a rock fireplace with insert, a large dining room behind the good-sized kitchen, two bedrooms with recent carpet and barn doors, and an updated bath featuring a new vanity and fixtures and a custom shower with wood-look tile walls, a tin ceiling, and pebble stone floor. Not included in the square footage is a bonus large attic room with an unfinished half bath which can be entered via outside stairs or a pull-down ladder from the cabin and could be used as a bonus room or third bedroom. Add in a fla

Key facts

• Large dining room
• Updated bath
• Wood floors

Tags

• RUSTIC MOUNTAIN CABIN
• WOOD FLOORS
• ROCK FIREPLACE
• LARGE DINING ROOM
• UPDATED BATH
• CUSTOM SHOWER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage (1 car) with front-facing garage; Driveway parking; Guest parking
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Private water source; Septic tank; Propane available; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single story; No common walls; Residential use
• Construction: Wood siding; Metal roof; Built on foundation (standard)
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Shed(s); Sloped, gently sloping lot; Paved road access; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range
• Flooring: Laminate; Carpet; Wood; Other
• Bathrooms: One three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating (wall furnace); Wood heating; Fireplace insert; Has cooling with ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Living room wood-burning fireplace with raised hearth and insert
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $94 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 25/100 on livability (#1,489 in CA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Springville Union Elementary (rural): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #476 of 1,400 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 1,447 units permitted in Tulare County in 2024 (307 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tulare County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $170k implies a 673% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,356 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.36%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $161,160
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1998 Tienken Ave	0.06mi	2/2.0	966 (+2%)	3mo	$147,000	$152	88
2015 Bartnett Dr	0.06mi	1/1.0 (-1)	976 (+3%)	10mo	$140,000	$143	79
466 Sutherland Dr	0.42mi	2/1.0	939 (-1%)	7mo	$160,000	$170	74
657 Loop Dr	0.43mi	2/2.0	968 (+2%)	9mo	$185,100	$191	65
427 Sutherland Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	850 (-10%)	24mo	$270,000	$318	32
1495 Nelson Dr	0.70mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,048 (+10%)	20mo	$170,000	$162	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $98,482
• Equity at exit: $153,149

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.99×
• Total profit: $285,192
• Equity at exit: $330,273

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93265

• Home prices YoY: 9.1%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,424 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $824/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,305

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 71 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $170,000 Active 70 DOM
17. 2026-03-21
    listed $170,000 Active
18. 2025-06-19
    price $170,000
19. 2024-06-19
    price $179,000
20. 2023-08-12
    price $189,000
21. 1980-02-01
    soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $824 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,292 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: +$468/yr (+$39/mo · 56.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 13 d/yr ≥82°F today · 35 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 51 unhealthy d/yr today · 54 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,083
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$824
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,367
• − Management: −$1,367
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$1,793
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$430
• After-tax cash flow: $1,554/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0637770
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $53,881
• Composite: 43.58/100
• National rank: #6431
• State rank: #476 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Camp Nelson

• Score: 25/100
• State rank: #1489
• US rank: #27998

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Camp Nelson, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,532

Population outlook (Tulare County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,681 people
• By 2030: 496,241 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 518,507 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 534,920 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 548,417 · +13.2%
• By 2100: 513,085 · +5.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 19% Asian 6% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 2% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tulare

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 38.5% · R 59.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+7.8 2016: R+12.1 2012: R+17.8 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 30.24%
• Current HPI: 361.9818
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+672.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Listed $170,000 TCMLS
• 2025-06-19 Price Changed $170,000 TCMLS
• 2024-06-19 Price Changed $179,000 TCMLS
• 2023-08-12 Price Changed $189,000 TCMLS
• 1980-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $824 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.