123 Zartop · Oakley, CA 94561

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Manufactured · 47 Days on market

Built 1973 $125/sqft · 26% below area Est $169k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful clean oversized double wide Eagle City home ready for quick close. 2 bed 2 bath charming built-ins with laminate flooring and updated nuetral color carpets in the extension area. The additional space can be used for additional dining/family room option. Built-in hutch/ decorated kitchen and indoor laundry.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Community clubhouse
• Primary bedroom

Tags

• DOUBLE WIDE MOBILE HOME
• PRIMARY BEDROOM
• SEPARATE DINING AREA
• COMMUNITY POOL
• COMMUNITY CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed upon approval; Senior community; Community clubhouse; Community pool; Community activities available; Park name: EAGLE CITY

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Double wide mobile home; 1,000 sq ft living area
• Exterior features: No yard; Level site

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (street level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Dining area
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 3.3% in Oakley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#608 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Antioch Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #200 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 243 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.09%
• DSCR: 2.78
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,074
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -26.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Geneseo St	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,020 (+2%)	6mo	$184,950	$181	85
69 Oneida St	0.09mi	2/2.0	960 (-4%)	21mo	$180,000	$188	72
24 Otsego St	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+8%)	11mo	$199,500	$185	70
19 Otsego St	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+10%)	14mo	$215,000	$195	66
105 Ontario St	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (+4%)	24mo	$190,000	$183	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.68% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $56,030
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.35×
• Total profit: $152,220
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94561

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 243
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,574 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $1,169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,256	-5% $1,212	+0% $1,169	+5% $1,126	+10% $1,083
Rent	-10% $966	-5% $1,068	+0% $1,169	+5% $1,271	+10% $1,373
Rate	-1.0pp $1,232	-0.5pp $1,201	base $1,169	+0.5pp $1,137	+1.0pp $1,104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
49 Carol Ln Oakley, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	686	$2,134	$3.11	0d	1	0.25mi
1888 Babbe St Oakley, CA	3.0	2.0	1330	$3,000	$2.26	0d	1	0.26mi
69 Carol Ln Oakley, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	802	$1,813	$2.26	0d	9	0.30mi
4290 Mehaffey Way Oakley, CA	2.0	2.0	750	$2,295	$3.06	3d	1	0.88mi
3560 E 18th St Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	828	$1,772	$2.14	0d	9	1.26mi
3560 E 18th St Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	828	$1,954	$2.36	4d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    historical
17. 2026-05-05
    listed $125,000 Active 356-char remark
18. 2026-01-20
    listed Active
19. 2021-11-23
    soldstatus $133,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Beautiful clean oversized double wide Eagle City home ready for quick close. 2 bed 2 bath charming built-ins with laminate flooring and updated nuetral color carpets in the extension area. The additional space can be used for additional dining/family room option. Built-in hutch/ decorated kitchen and indoor laundry.

20. 2021-10-15
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Beautiful clean oversized double wide Eagle City home ready for quick close. 2 bed 2 bath charming built-ins with laminate flooring and updated nuetral color carpets in the extension area. The additional space can be used for additional dining/family room option. Built-in hutch/ decorated kitchen and indoor laundry.

21. 2021-10-02
    price $133,500

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Beautiful clean oversized double wide Eagle City home ready for quick close. 2 bed 2 bath charming built-ins with laminate flooring and updated nuetral color carpets in the extension area. The additional space can be used for additional dining/family room option. Built-in hutch/ decorated kitchen and indoor laundry.

22. 2021-09-17
    listed $147,000 New

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Beautiful clean oversized double wide Eagle City home ready for quick close. 2 bed 2 bath charming built-ins with laminate flooring and updated nuetral color carpets in the extension area. The additional space can be used for additional dining/family room option. Built-in hutch/ decorated kitchen and indoor laundry.

23. 2018-10-29
    soldstatus $74,000 Sold
24. 2018-08-23
    status Pending
25. 2018-08-17
    price $88,500
26. 2018-07-12
    status Back On Market
27. 2018-07-06
    status Pending
28. 2018-06-21
    listed $99,900 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 17 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,883
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,471
• − Management: −$2,471
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $12,804
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,073
• After-tax cash flow: $10,959/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Antioch Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602850
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 25.00%
• Median HH income: $65,935
• Composite: 37.57/100
• National rank: #4386
• State rank: #200 of 517 in CA

Livability — Oakley

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #608
• US rank: #19421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakley, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 46,368
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,368
• Household income: $134,678
• Rent vs Own: 22.1% rent · 77.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 614.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 15% Asian 9% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Russian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -249.42%
• Current HPI: 301.9916
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.68%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+25.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-05 Listed $125,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-20 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2021-11-23 Sold (MLS) $133,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2021-10-15 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2021-10-02 Price Changed $133,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2021-09-17 Listed $147,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-10-29 Sold (MLS) $74,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-08-23 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-08-17 Price Changed $88,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-07-12 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-07-06 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-06-21 Listed $99,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR