8809 Valleybrook Rd · Birmingham, AL 35206

$194,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1959 0.57 ac lot $75/sqft · 24% below area Est $256k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious one-story home featuring 5 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms with a functional and versatile layout. The main living area offers plenty of space for both everyday living and entertaining and flows into the kitchen with ample cabinet and counter space. The primary suite provides a comfortable retreat, while additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, office space, or hobbies. The basement includes additional living space, perfect for a den, recreation area, or extra storage. Enjoy a large yard ideal for relaxing or entertaining, with practical features throughout completing this home. One or more photo(s) was virtually staged.

Key facts

• 0.57 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1959

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-85 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (22.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools F, crime F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $136k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,813 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.87%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $256,070
• List price: $194,900
• Delta: -23.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
520 Hickory St	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,590 (-0%)	9mo	$204,000	$79	70
424 Larue St	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,516 (-3%)	18mo	$264,000	$105	66
215 Observatory Dr	0.45mi	4/3.0	2,554 (-2%)	10mo	$287,400	$113	65
833 86th Pl S	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,420 (-7%)	8mo	$250,000	$103	64
501 Chestnut St	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,554 (-2%)	16mo	$230,000	$90	60
8821 Valley Hill Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0	2,932 (+13%)	2mo	$279,900	$95	59
8905 Glendale Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0	2,226 (-14%)	8mo	$235,000	$106	56
601 Elm St	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,815 (+8%)	2mo	$216,000	$77	56
686 Ridge Top Cir	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,436 (-6%)	4mo	$269,000	$110	48
633 Chestnut St	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,988 (+15%)	2mo	$275,000	$92	47
313 Observatory Dr	0.44mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,958 (+14%)	2mo	$290,000	$98	46
640 Shadywood Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,984 (+15%)	10mo	$275,000	$92	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-38,795
• Equity at exit: $29,060

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-47,939
• Equity at exit: $16,851

Cash invested: $54,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35206

• Home prices YoY: -32.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,508 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,079/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $-85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,616

Max offer price $179,860

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $25	-5% $-30	+0% $-85	+5% $-140	+10% $-195
Rent	-10% $-204	-5% $-145	+0% $-85	+5% $-26	+10% $34
Rate	-1.0pp $13	-0.5pp $-36	base $-85	+0.5pp $-136	+1.0pp $-187

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,725
• Closing costs: $5,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
730 80th Pl S Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.0	2002	$1,350	$0.67	24d	1	1.11mi
7801 Vienna Ave Unit 1 Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.5	1880	$1,300	$0.69	44d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $194,900 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,900 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,900 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,900 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,900 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $194,900 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,999 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,999 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,999 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,999 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,999 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,999 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,999 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,999 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    price $214,950 639-char remark

    Show marketing remark (639 chars)

    Spacious one-story home featuring 5 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms with a functional and versatile layout. The main living area offers plenty of space for both everyday living and entertaining and flows into the kitchen with ample cabinet and counter space. The primary suite provides a comfortable retreat, while additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, office space, or hobbies. The basement includes additional living space, perfect for a den, recreation area, or extra storage. Enjoy a large yard ideal for relaxing or entertaining, with practical features throughout completing this home. One or more photo(s) was virtually staged.

16. 2026-04-10
    listed $230,250 Active 639-char remark

    Show marketing remark (639 chars)

    Spacious one-story home featuring 5 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms with a functional and versatile layout. The main living area offers plenty of space for both everyday living and entertaining and flows into the kitchen with ample cabinet and counter space. The primary suite provides a comfortable retreat, while additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, office space, or hobbies. The basement includes additional living space, perfect for a den, recreation area, or extra storage. Enjoy a large yard ideal for relaxing or entertaining, with practical features throughout completing this home. One or more photo(s) was virtually staged.

17. 2025-02-26
    historical $1,710
18. 2025-01-27
    price $1,745
19. 2025-01-22
    price $1,795
20. 2025-01-13
    price $1,845
21. 2024-12-30
    listed $1,860
22. 2023-08-05
    historical
23. 2023-08-02
    historical
24. 2021-06-18
    soldstatus $136,462
25. 2018-10-17
    soldstatus $120,000
26. 2018-10-12
    soldstatus $120,000 75-char remark

    Show marketing remark (75 chars)

    Amazing home in Birmingham with big rooms! Beautiful interior. With carport

27. 2018-09-07
    listed $120,000 75-char remark

    Show marketing remark (75 chars)

    Amazing home in Birmingham with big rooms! Beautiful interior. With carport

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,079 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,079 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,098
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,917
• − Property taxes: −$2,079
• − Insurance: −$974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,448
• − Management: −$1,448
• − Depreciation: −$5,670
• Taxable loss: −$4,439
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,065
• After-tax cash flow: $44/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 15,621
• Household income: $42,549
• Rent vs Own: 51.1% rent · 48.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1169.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 73% White 22% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.70%
• Current HPI: 146.2168
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.82%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+79.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $214,950 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $230,250 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-02-26 Rental Removed $1,710 RENT.
• 2025-01-27 Price Changed $1,745 RENT.
• 2025-01-22 Price Changed $1,795 RENT.
• 2025-01-13 Price Changed $1,845 RENT.
• 2024-12-30 Listed for Rent $1,860 RENT.
• 2023-08-05 Rental Removed — APPFOLIO
• 2023-08-02 Rental Removed — RENT.
• 2021-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $136,462 Public Records
• 2018-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2018-10-12 Sold (MLS) $120,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-09-07 Listed $120,000 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,079 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.