11070 Deer Run Rd · Garrison, MN 56401

$55,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily · 66 Days on market

Built 1993 1,263 sqft lot $413/mo HOA · 27% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy simple, up north living in Deer Run Mobile Park with access to Borden Lake. This 3 bedroom, 2 full bathroom home offers true main level living with an open layout and main floor laundry for everyday convenience. The primary bedroom features a private bathroom with a large soaking tub, creating a comfortable space to unwind. Several windows have been replaced since 2022, bringing in great natural light and helping brighten the main living areas. Outside, you’ll find a spacious deck that’s perfect for relaxing or entertaining, along with a storage shed for your extra gear and tools. One of the biggest highlights is shared access to Borden Lake, giving you the up north lake lifestyle without the high cost of lakefront ownership. Located 23 minutes from Brainerd, you’ll have easy access to everything the area has to offer including medical facilities, shopping, restaurants, and more, while still enjoying the peace and simplicity of a quiet community.

Key facts

• Replaced windows
• Large soaking tub
• Main level living

Tags

• MAIN LEVEL LIVING
• OPEN LAYOUT
• MAIN FLOOR LAUNDRY
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• LARGE SOAKING TUB
• REPLACED WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $409 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $52k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.4% vs local median 1.4% in Garrison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#738 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, crime D+.
• Brainerd Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #85 of 301 in MN (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 401 active listings in the ZIP; 420 units permitted in Crow Wing County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Crow Wing County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; HOA is 27% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $51,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.23%
• DSCR: 2.61
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $17,435
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.24×
• Total profit: $49,871
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56401

• Active inventory: 401
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,517 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$9 /mo · $112/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$413
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $409

Break-even live

Break-even rent $999

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $441	-5% $425	+0% $409	+5% $331	+10% $312
Rent	-10% $290	-5% $349	+0% $409	+5% $469	+10% $529
Rate	-1.0pp $437	-0.5pp $423	base $409	+0.5pp $395	+1.0pp $381

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $413 · $4,956/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $55,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $55,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $55,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $55,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $55,000 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-04-14
    listed $55,000 Active 984-char remark

    Show marketing remark (984 chars)

    Enjoy simple, up north living in Deer Run Mobile Park with access to Borden Lake. This 3 bedroom, 2 full bathroom home offers true main level living with an open layout and main floor laundry for everyday convenience. The primary bedroom features a private bathroom with a large soaking tub, creating a comfortable space to unwind. Several windows have been replaced since 2022, bringing in great natural light and helping brighten the main living areas. Outside, you’ll find a spacious deck that’s perfect for relaxing or entertaining, along with a storage shed for your extra gear and tools. One of the biggest highlights is shared access to Borden Lake, giving you the up north lake lifestyle without the high cost of lakefront ownership. Located 23 minutes from Brainerd, you’ll have easy access to everything the area has to offer including medical facilities, shopping, restaurants, and more, while still enjoying the peace and simplicity of a quiet community.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $112 · $9/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $364 · $30/mo
• Expected delta: +$252/yr (+$21/mo · 225.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,207
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$112
• − Insurance: −$942
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,457
• − Management: −$1,457
• − HOA: −$4,956
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $4,603
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,105
• After-tax cash flow: $3,808/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brainerd Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2706090
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $49,059
• Composite: 45.57/100
• National rank: #2596
• State rank: #85 of 301 in MN

Livability — Garrison

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #738
• US rank: #17967

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Crow Wing County · 40,773 people
• Metro: Brainerd, MN
• Population (ZIP): 31,841
• Household income: $73,128
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Crow Wing County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 64,187 people
• By 2030: 64,057 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 62,470 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 59,064 · -8.0%
• By 2075: 48,738 · -24.1%
• By 2100: 36,112 · -43.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crow Wing

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.6% · R 65.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -7.7pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+29.7 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -226.09%
• Current HPI: 220.3299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Brainerd, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $55,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $112 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.