245 Lake Dr SW · Varnamtown, NC 28462

$169,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,270 sqft · Manufactured public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1988 0.31 ac lot $19/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the highly desirable community Riverside, this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home would make for a fantastic primary or secondary residence. This property features fantastic pond views and a screened in back porch to enjoy wildlife watching. In this community, residents enjoy daily walks on the low traffic streets. Varnamtown is a hub for fishermen and shrimpers alike, situated on the banks of the Lockwood Folly River. Location allows for freshwater, saltwater, and brackish fishing within minutes. Community boat ramp available as a member of POA as well as public boat ramp within 2 miles. Lockwood Folly Golf Course located within 3 miles. Award winning Holden Beach located within 4 miles

Key facts

• Community boat ramp
• Pond views
• Public boat ramp

Tags

• POND VIEWS
• SCREENED IN BACK PORCH
• COMMUNITY BOAT RAMP
• PUBLIC BOAT RAMP
• LOCKWOOD FOLLY GOLF COURSE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee ($225/year); Association amenities include a boat dock

Exterior

• Parking: On-site carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Well and public water available; Water connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; One story; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Vinyl siding; See remarks for additional construction and foundation details
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Porch with screened area; Storm door(s); No fencing; Metal roof; Pond frontage / on waterfront; Water view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric forced-air heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Window coverings; Partially furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $151 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 3.8% in Varnamtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#521 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, employment B; Watch: crime D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Virginia Williamson Elem (math 50% / reading 49%, grade D, #417 of 1,410 statewide, top 32%, 502 students, 99% FRL); Cedar Grove Middle (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #305 of 475 statewide, top 65%, 434 students, 99% FRL); West Brunswick High (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,526 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 506 active listings in the ZIP; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,899 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.57%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-17,716
• Equity at exit: $25,347

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,217
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28462

• Active inventory: 506
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,025 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $489/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$19
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,834

Max offer price $169,999

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $247	-5% $199	+0% $151	+5% $103	+10% $55
Rent	-10% $-9	-5% $71	+0% $151	+5% $231	+10% $311
Rate	-1.0pp $237	-0.5pp $194	base $151	+0.5pp $107	+1.0pp $62

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $19 · $228/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,999 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,999 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,999 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,999 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,999 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,999 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,999 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,999 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,999 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,999 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,999 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,999 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,999 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,999 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,999 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,999 Active 38 DOM
17. 2026-04-20
    listed $169,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $489 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,394 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: +$905/yr (+$75/mo · 185.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,301
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$489
• − Insurance: −$5,968
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,944
• − Management: −$1,944
• − HOA: −$228
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$740
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$178
• After-tax cash flow: $1,992/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Varnamtown

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #19194

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 131,536 people
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 12,340
• Household income: $60,349
• Rent vs Own: 15.5% rent · 84.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 269.0

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -259.44%
• Current HPI: 144.2462
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $169,999 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $489 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.