Hugo Estates- #15 Plan · Hugo, MN 55038

$94,499

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured · 61 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BRAND NEW HOME COMING SOON! This 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom (one standing shower, and a full tub in the other) mobile home is the perfect place to call HOME! Home Features: * Luxury Siding * Natural Lighting * Ceiling Fans * OTR microwave * Abundant cabinetry space * Actual finishes and layout may vary from model pictures. See office for full details.

Key facts

• Natural lighting
• Ceiling fans
• Listed 61 days

Tags

• NATURAL LIGHTING
• CEILING FANS
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $94,499

Exterior

• Home design: Plan home in Hugo Estates (Plan: Hugo Estates- #15)
• Construction: New construction (inventory type: Plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (840 living area)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $94k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $996 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.9% vs local median 3.1% in Hugo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#314 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• White Bear Lake School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #83 of 301 in MN (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Matoska International (math 45% / reading 54%, grade D, #423 of 857 statewide, top 55%, 554 students, 24% FRL); Central Middle (math 41% / reading 55%, grade C-, #90 of 258 statewide, top 35%, 1,020 students, 24% FRL); White Bear South Campus Senior (math 37%, 1,111 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools at 25% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 278 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $653 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $88,829 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.19%
• DSCR: 3.01
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $48,179
• Equity at exit: $14,090

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.68×
• Total profit: $123,796
• Equity at exit: $8,171

Cash invested: $26,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55038

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Active inventory: 278
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,088 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$496
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$118 /mo · $1,417/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $996

Break-even live

Break-even rent $827

Max offer price $94,499

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,062	-5% $1,029	+0% $996	+5% $964	+10% $931
Rent	-10% $831	-5% $914	+0% $996	+5% $1,079	+10% $1,161
Rate	-1.0pp $1,044	-0.5pp $1,020	base $996	+0.5pp $972	+1.0pp $947

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,625
• Closing costs: $2,835
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15865 Goodview Ave N Unit D Hugo, MN	1.0	1.0	850	$1,845	$2.17	26d	1	0.75mi
15891 Goodview Ave N Unit J Hugo, MN	1.0	1.0	850	$1,845	$2.17	5d	1	0.75mi
15853 Goodview Ave N Unit L Hugo, MN	2.0	1.0	960	$1,995	$2.08	45d	1	0.75mi
15891 Goodview Ave N Unit D Hugo, MN	2.0	1.0	1060	$2,150	$2.03	19d	1	0.75mi
15865 Goodview Ave N Unit A Hugo, MN	2.0	1.0	960	$1,995	$2.08	26d	1	0.75mi
4631 Rosemary Way Hugo, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	963	$2,330	$2.42	0d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $94,499 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,499 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,499 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,499 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,499 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,499 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,499 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,499 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,499 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,499 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $94,499 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $94,499 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,499 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,499 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,499 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-04-21
    listed $94,499 Active 357-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,055
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,293
• − Property taxes: −$1,417
• − Insurance: −$472
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,004
• − Management: −$2,004
• − Depreciation: −$2,749
• Taxable income: $11,114
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,667
• After-tax cash flow: $9,289/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand new mobile home in Hugo, MN, is move-in ready with excellent condition and no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates like interior painting and landscaping to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Interior painting — Fresh paint can enhance the home's appearance and appeal to potential buyers or renters.
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more interest from potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Interior painting — Fresh paint can enhance the home's appearance and appeal to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more interest from potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: White Bear Lake School District
• NCES district ID: 2742360
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $73,051
• Composite: 45.78/100
• National rank: #2564
• State rank: #83 of 301 in MN

Livability — Hugo

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #314
• US rank: #7032

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hugo, MN
• County: Washington County · 235,613 people
• City population: 25,061
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 25,061
• Household income: $130,931
• Rent vs Own: 8.6% rent · 91.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 222.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Asian 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Lithuanian 7% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.33%
• Current HPI: 223.6524
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B