5414 Forest Timbers Dr Dr · Atascocita, TX 77346

$274,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,610 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1978 0.34 ac lot Est $279k · at est. $53/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two Story, 4 bedroom home in the Oaks of Atascocita all bedrooms upstairs. Back yard with mature trees and green space frames out a gazebo. 2 car garage w/ extension offers extra space with storage shed. This lovely home has updates that including a new Hot water heater, new laminate flooring, and newer interior and exterior painting. First floor features Formal Dining space with custom built ins and could easily be used as a study. Formal Living space offers new Laminate flooring and a ceiling fan. Family room has newer carpet and custom bookcases that frame the brick fireplace and opens to the kitchen. Breakfast area has a built in window seat, a wet bar with shelving, and a built in desk area. Kitchen updated with granite, double ovens, electric cook top, and newer dishwasher. Half bathroom and laundry room are downstairs and large enough for a freezer. Master upstairs has 2 walk in closets and both full baths have been updated with granite counters, new tile, and new soaker tubs.

Key facts

• Built in shelving
• Private backyard
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• TWO STORY HOME
• COZY FIREPLACE
• BUILT IN SHELVING
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• AMPLE CABINET STORAGE
• GENEROUS COUNTER SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by GOODWIN MANAGEMENT INC; Annual association fee; Community amenities include pool, playground, park, picnic area, marina, and basketball court; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; Driveway parking; Boat parking available; Garage with door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Two-story (entry on first floor); Composition roof
• Construction: Built in 1978; Brick and wood siding exterior; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio and deck; Fence around back yard; Sprinkler/irrigation system; Storage shed; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Double oven; Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor (16 x 15); Bedroom on second floor (13 x 11); Bedroom on second floor (12 x 9); Bedroom on second floor (11 x 11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Wet bar; Crown molding; Dual sinks; Granite counters; Kitchen open to family room; Primary bedroom with private bath; Pots & pan drawers; Pantry; Tub/shower combination; Ceiling fans; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $180 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $275k).
• Recommended offer: $271k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.0% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Timberwood Middle (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,094 students, 54% FRL); Atascocita H S (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 3,829 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 32% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 681 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,776 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.81%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,270
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19518 Alinawood Dr	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,634 (+1%)	1mo	$265,000	$101	88
5606 Timbers Trail Dr	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,498 (-4%)	1mo	$255,000	$102	81
5706 Upper Lake Dr	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,667 (+2%)	2mo	$285,000	$107	79
5726 Green Timbers Dr	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,592 (-1%)	1mo	$249,999	$96	78
19311 Forest Fern Ct	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,276 (-13%)	1mo	$299,900	$132	73
5527 Enchanted Timbers Dr	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,348 (-10%)	2mo	$279,900	$119	72
5535 Enchanted Timbers Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,931 (+12%)	2mo	$265,900	$91	66
5422 Enchanted Mist Dr	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,876 (+10%)	2mo	$299,900	$104	66
19402 Kacey Lane Ct	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,793 (+7%)	2mo	$318,550	$114	60
5811 Forest Timbers Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,292 (-12%)	1mo	$264,500	$115	53
6007 Summer Oaks Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0	2,821 (+8%)	1mo	$299,500	$106	52
5531 Flax Bourton St	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,318 (-11%)	1mo	$285,000	$123	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-16,936
• Equity at exit: $66,963

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-8,997
• Equity at exit: $70,833

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 681
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,984 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$568 /mo · $6,821/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$53
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$627
• Net cashflow: $180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,756

Max offer price $274,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $336	-5% $258	+0% $180	+5% $102	+10% $24
Rent	-10% $-56	-5% $62	+0% $180	+5% $298	+10% $416
Rate	-1.0pp $319	-0.5pp $250	base $180	+0.5pp $109	+1.0pp $36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19322 Forest Fern Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2626	$3,500	$1.33	44d	1	0.09mi
5303 Hill Timbers Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,050	$1.09	44d	1	0.69mi
20914 Lake Park Trl Humble, TX	5.0	2.5	2462	$2,460	$1.00	6d	1	1.16mi
20906 Greenfield Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2603	$2,200	$0.85	44d	1	1.20mi
18406 S Roaring River Ct Humble, TX	4.0	4.0	3319	$3,600	$1.08	44d	1	1.26mi
20823 Water Point Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.5	2550	$2,525	$0.99	23d	1	1.26mi
20618 Carmine Oak Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2087	$2,195	$1.05	44d	1	1.33mi
18810 Woodbreeze Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,279	$1.04	25d	1	1.39mi
20707 Redbud Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1965	$2,450	$1.25	23d	1	1.40mi
12214 Landsdown Ridge Way Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2389	$2,165	$0.91	12d	1	1.40mi
18222 Noble Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	3265	$2,681	$0.82	0d	1	1.43mi
18810 Summer Anne Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	3000	$2,376	$0.79	44d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $53 · $636/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $274,900 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,900 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,900 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,900 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $274,900 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $289,900 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    listed $299,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,821 · $568/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,821 · $568/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,813
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$6,821
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,865
• − Management: −$2,865
• − HOA: −$636
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$2,145
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$515
• After-tax cash flow: $2,676/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+49.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-01 Rental Removed $2,100 HARMLS
• 2025-07-22 Listed for Rent $2,100 HARMLS
• 2025-07-21 Rental Removed $2,300 HARMLS
• 2025-07-14 Listed for Rent $2,300 HARMLS
• 2019-09-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-09-10 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-08-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-08-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-08-07 Price Changed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2019-07-12 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,821 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.