929 Mary Ellen St · Pampa, TX 79065

$74,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,828 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 122 Days on market

↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

OWNER FINANCE AND NOW OFFERING 3% in incentives. Two story with basement. 2-4 bedrooms, garage, central heat and air. Master room upstairs with bathroom and balcony. Main floor bedroom also has bathroom and basement could be two more bedrooms and has utility. Backyard has a approx. 7 foot deep tank style swimming pool. Living room has a wood-burning stove. Close to park for kids to play and downtown area.

Key facts

• Master room
• Basement
• Wood-burning stove

Tags

• TWO STORY
• BASEMENT
• MASTER ROOM
• BACKYARD
• SWIMMING POOL
• WOOD-BURNING STOVE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage
• Home design: Two-story single family residence; Residential property
• Exterior features: In-ground pool; Composition roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace in the living room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $791 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#128 in TX, #3,885 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Pampa ISD (town): math 38% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #482 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7 units permitted in Gray County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gray County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.28%
• DSCR: 3.01
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $38,296
• Equity at exit: $11,168

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.69×
• Total profit: $98,367
• Equity at exit: $6,476

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79065

• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,664 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,190/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $791

Break-even live

Break-even rent $662

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
828 N Nelson St Pampa, TX	4.0	2.5	1778	$2,000	$1.12	43d	1	0.57mi
1404 Coronado Dr Pampa, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,200	$0.80	43d	1	0.67mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,900 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,900 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 408-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,900 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,900 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,900 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $74,900 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $74,900 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $74,900 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $74,900 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $74,900 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,900 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,900 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,900 Active 104 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    status Active
17. 2026-02-28
    price $74,900
18. 2026-01-22
    listed $79,900 Active
19. 2021-09-09
    soldstatus
20. 2021-06-17
    soldstatus
21. 2021-03-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,190 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,371 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$181/yr (+$15/mo · 15.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 18% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,968
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,190
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,597
• − Management: −$1,597
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $8,834
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,120
• After-tax cash flow: $7,377/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pampa ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834170
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,741
• Composite: 31.43/100
• National rank: #5986
• State rank: #482 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pampa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #128
• US rank: #3885

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pampa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,569

Population outlook (Gray County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,965 people
• By 2030: 26,105 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 28,752 · +15.2%
• By 2050: 31,859 · +27.6%
• By 2075: 39,812 · +59.5%
• By 2100: 43,284 · +73.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Gray

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.1) · D 11.2% · R 88.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -71.0pp · 2024: -77.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.1 2020: R+77.2 2016: R+78.8 2012: R+75.2 2008: R+71.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.67%
• Current HPI: 128.8525
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Relisted — PBOR
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $74,900 PBOR
• 2026-01-22 Listed $79,900 PBOR
• 2021-09-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-03-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,190 · -6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.