8212 Pennsylvania Ave · St. Louis, MO 63111

$40,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,175 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1905 4,112 sqft lot ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Motivated Seller! Great project for an experienced investor or an eager, handy homeowner who wants to invest in their future. Selling as-is. Water, gas, and electricity are on. Work is needed in all areas of the home.

Key facts

• 4,112 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1905

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $680 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.7% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Walbridge Elem. Community Ed. (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,099 of 1,115 statewide, top 100%, 128 students, 98% FRL); Roosevelt High (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #517 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 460 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 80% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,400 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 72.82%
• DSCR: 4.24
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $156,275
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
322 E Davis St	0.24mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,156 (-2%)	2mo	$39,000	$34	80
324 Hurck St	0.15mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,157 (-2%)	5mo	$165,900	$143	75
8309 Minnesota Ave	0.11mi	2/1.0	1,292 (+10%)	8mo	$140,000	$108	72
235 Military Rd	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,201 (+2%)	3mo	$84,900	$71	64
7725 Ivory Ave	0.38mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,275 (+8%)	2mo	$150,000	$118	60
7205 Pennsylvania Ave	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,101 (-6%)	1mo	$160,000	$145	53
622 Kayser Ave	0.72mi	2/1.0	1,113 (-5%)	7mo	$159,900	$144	52
116 Horn Ave	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,264 (+8%)	1mo	$167,500	$133	50
8708 S Grand Ave	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,277 (+9%)	1mo	$189,000	$148	48
7342 Alabama Ave	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,116 (-5%)	10mo	$94,900	$85	48
8432 Tennessee Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,074 (-9%)	9mo	$105,000	$98	47
302 Waller Ave	0.67mi	2/1.0	1,040 (-12%)	7mo	$189,000	$182	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 72.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.32×
• Total profit: $37,150
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 76.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.99×
• Total profit: $89,507
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63111

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,205 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $550/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $680

Break-even live

Break-even rent $345

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $702	-5% $691	+0% $680	+5% $668	+10% $657
Rent	-10% $584	-5% $632	+0% $680	+5% $727	+10% $775
Rate	-1.0pp $700	-0.5pp $690	base $680	+0.5pp $669	+1.0pp $659

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8215 Pennsylvania Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	2.0	1252	$1,650	$1.32	18d	1	0.04mi
8125 Michigan Ave St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	797	$1,150	$1.44	15d	1	0.19mi
7924 Michigan Ave Unit 2F St. Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,195	$0.96	3d	1	0.24mi
815 W Courtois St St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	900	$795	$0.88	15d	1	0.38mi
807 W Courtois St Apt D St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$925	$1.03	44d	1	0.38mi
813 W Courtois St Apt C St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1000	$895	$0.90	44d	1	0.38mi
7614 Virginia Ave Unit 7614 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$750	$1.00	24d	1	0.46mi
8511 Idaho Ave Unit 1st Floor St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	750	$850	$1.13	13d	1	0.49mi
125 Koeln Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	833	$1,499	$1.80	44d	1	0.52mi
812 Schirmer St Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	900	$795	$0.88	44d	1	0.57mi
207 Waller Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,075	$1.19	24d	1	0.59mi
7417 Vermont Ave Unit 103 St. Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1069	$1,500	$1.40	15d	1	0.62mi
7417 Vermont Ave St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	2d	8	0.62mi
7851 Bandero Dr Saint Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	12d	1	0.64mi
7320 Vermont Ave Unit 2nd St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	710	$750	$1.06	44d	1	0.68mi
304 Bayless Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,950	$1.77	2d	1	0.71mi
229 Horn Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1301	$1,871	$1.44	2d	1	0.71mi
7024 Pennsylvania Ave Unit F St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1081	$930	$0.86	17d	1	0.79mi
709 Dammert Ave Unit Labs St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	800	$1,100	$1.38	44d	1	0.81mi
336 Lagro Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1340	$1,250	$0.93	44d	1	0.88mi
349 Lagro Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1184	$1,500	$1.27	44d	1	0.88mi
6915 Alabama Ave Unit 1st Floor St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1248	$1,200	$0.96	44d	1	0.93mi
6800 Virginia Ave Unit 1 St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,475	$0.98	18d	1	0.99mi
128 Haven St Unit 2F St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	11d	1	1.04mi
7109 Eugene Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1029	$1,495	$1.45	3d	1	1.06mi
3945 Crosby Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,083	$1.89	2d	1	1.14mi
127 E Holden Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1044	$1,200	$1.15	44d	1	1.15mi
6436 Idaho Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1050	$995	$0.95	44d	1	1.20mi
152 W Etta Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	936	$1,274	$1.36	8d	1	1.21mi
9809 S Broadway Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	1288	$1,450	$1.13	45d	1	1.37mi
3601 Holly Hills Blvd Apt 19 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	700	$875	$1.25	3d	1	1.39mi
6118 Vermont Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	759	$1,150	$1.52	44d	1	1.45mi
6118 Vermont Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	759	$1,250	$1.65	15d	1	1.45mi
4101 Germania Ave Apt 1A St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	800	$925	$1.16	15d	1	1.46mi
7113 Leona St Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,765	$2.04	44d	1	1.47mi
4117 Germania St Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	750	$925	$1.23	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-12
   price $40,000
3. 2026-02-20
   listed $48,000 Active
4. 2022-11-18
   soldstatus
5. 1995-06-05
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $550 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $550 · $46/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,460
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$550
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,157
• − Management: −$1,157
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $7,992
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,918
• After-tax cash flow: $6,238/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,851
• Household income: $47,039
• Rent vs Own: 61.6% rent · 38.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1364.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 41% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, India
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.80%
• Current HPI: 169.4644
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.27%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $40,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Listed $48,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-06-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $550 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.