183 Red Hill Loop Rd · Warrenton, NC 27589

$212,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,528 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1956 0.47 ac lot Est $237k · 10% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

* * PRICE IMPROVEMENT * * Welcome to this charming and beautifully updated, 4-bedroom, 2-bath home in historic Warren County. Offering the perfect blend of classic character and modern comfort. Situated on a generous 0.47-acre lot, the property provides plenty of space to enjoy both indoor and outdoor living. Step inside to find a thoughtfully refreshed interior featuring new luxury vinyl plank flooring and plush carpet, complemented by timeless hardwood floors. The kitchen shines with granite countertops, a stainless steel refrigerator, and brand-new range and microwave--ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. With two bedrooms conveniently located downstairs and two upstairs, t

Key facts

• Brand new range
• Patio area
• Bonus room

Tags

• UPDATED INTERIOR
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL REFRIGERATOR
• BRAND NEW RANGE
• BONUS ROOM
• PATIO AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Gravel parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity available and connected; Propane; Cable available
• Home design: House; Two levels
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Built/updated to current condition
• Exterior features: Approximately 0.47-acre lot; Shed(s)/additional storage structures; Covered front porch; Patio; Rain gutters

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump and electric heating; Propane heating available; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled condition; Rain gutters; Storage space; Covered front porch and patio
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup (main level); Electric dryer hookup (main level)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $213k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#250 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A; Watch: housing D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Warren County Schools (rural): math 11% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #174 of 178 in NC (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mariam Boyd Elementary (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,405 of 1,410 statewide, top 100%, 341 students, 99% FRL); Warren County High (math 15% / reading 27%, grade F, #488 of 535 statewide, top 91%, 384 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 79% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 255 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 40% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,678 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.05%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $236,840
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
122 Ridgecrest Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5	1,610 (+5%)	2mo	$249,690	$155	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $120,330
• Equity at exit: $186,278

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.79×
• Total profit: $345,301
• Equity at exit: $395,985

Cash invested: $59,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27589

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,827 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,116
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,038/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,635

Max offer price $212,900

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,225
• Closing costs: $6,387
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $212,900 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $212,900 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $212,900 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $212,900 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $212,900 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $212,900 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $212,900 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $212,900 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $212,900 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $212,900 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $212,900 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $212,900 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $212,900 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-03-17
    listed $220,000 Active
15. 2025-09-13
    historical
16. 2025-09-12
    price $219,000
17. 2025-06-17
    price $224,000
18. 2025-06-16
    price $224,000
19. 2025-04-27
    listed $229,000 Active
20. 2025-04-25
    listed $229,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,038 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,746 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$708/yr (+$59/mo · 68.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 40% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,921
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,926
• − Property taxes: −$1,038
• − Insurance: −$1,064
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,754
• − Management: −$1,754
• − Depreciation: −$6,193
• Taxable loss: −$1,807
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$434
• After-tax cash flow: $2,252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704740
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $33,433
• Composite: 14.62/100
• National rank: #9409
• State rank: #174 of 178 in NC

Livability — Warrenton

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #250
• US rank: #11101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing D+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,763

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,664 people
• By 2030: 17,641 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 15,442 · -17.3%
• By 2050: 13,634 · -27.0%
• By 2075: 10,523 · -43.6%
• By 2100: 7,777 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% White 27% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Native American 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: D (+19.0) · D 58.8% · R 39.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 39.5pp · 2024: 19.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.0 2020: D+25.7 2016: D+33.2 2012: D+36.0 2008: D+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.64%
• Current HPI: 303.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-3.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed $220,000 TMLS
• 2025-09-13 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $219,000 RVLG
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $224,000 RVLG
• 2025-06-16 Price Changed $224,000 TMLS
• 2025-04-27 Listed $229,000 RVLG
• 2025-04-25 Listed $229,000 TMLS

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,038 · +57.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.