6532 W Dogtown Rd · Sahuarita, AZ 85629

$140,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1998 4.20 ac lot $78/sqft · 55% below area Est $155k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Situated on over 4 private acres, this 1-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home presents a unique investment opportunity in a peaceful rural setting. Zoned for horses with ample space for corrals, RV parking, trailers, equipment, or future improvements. The property offers privacy, wide-open views, and flexible potential for renovation or redevelopment. Conveniently located within reach of town amenities while still offering the space and seclusion of private desert living. A rare chance for investors or buyers with vision to unlock the full potential of this property.

Key facts

• 4.2 acre lot
• Built 1998
• Listed 34 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned Sahuarita - R1; Road maintenance agreement in place
• HOA & community: Horses allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; One story; Property faces north
• Construction: Siding exterior; Shingle roof; Built as a manufactured home; 891 total living area
• Exterior features: Deck; Wire fencing; Dirt road access; East/West and North/South exposure

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Gas range; Gas oven
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas and propane compatible); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Gas range and gas oven; Washer and dryer; Vinyl flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $240 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (1.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.8% in Sahuarita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#43 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sahuarita Unified District (4411) (town): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #63 of 249 in AZ (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sahuarita Primary School (363 students, 33% FRL); Sahuarita Middle School (math 26% / reading 43%, grade F, #65 of 218 statewide, top 30%, 579 students, 40% FRL); Sahuarita High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #212 of 381 statewide, top 57%, 1,146 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 444 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($109k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.35%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,237
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -9.82%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-11,074
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-4,282
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85629

• Home prices YoY: -20.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 444
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,378 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $671/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,074

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $140,000 Active 570-char remark
17. 2021-09-13
    soldstatus $122,500
18. 2002-10-03
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $671 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $924 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$253/yr (+$21/mo · 37.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,535
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$671
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,323
• − Management: −$1,323
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $604
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$145
• After-tax cash flow: $2,737/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sahuarita Unified District (4411)
• NCES district ID: 0407300
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $63,564
• Composite: 34.91/100
• National rank: #5072
• State rank: #63 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sahuarita

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #8414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 31,668
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,668
• Household income: $109,253
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 220.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 17% Black 2% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.38%
• Current HPI: 234.6422
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.31%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+300.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $140,000 MLSSAZ
• 2021-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $122,500 Public Records
• 2002-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $671 · +19.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.