27298 Grey Fox Run · Tomball, TX 77354

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,610 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 114 Days on market

Built 2022 4,922 sqft lot $165/sqft · 6% below area Est $281k · 6% under $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BETTER THAN NEW with no back neighbors!! Charming design at every turn, featuring an upgraded kitchen with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, herringbone backsplash and wood-look flooring. Living room has plenty of natural light with a beautiful view of the trees. Primary suite impresses with vaulted ceilings and a spacious ensuite, while secondary bedrooms bring fun and function. Pocket office makes working from home a reality, and the spacious back yard is great for playing. Even the laundry is handled - washer and dryer are included! Enjoy a reverse osmosis at the sink and a whole-home water softener already in place. Recently built and immaculately cared for, this is a step above new construction. It's move-in ready, upgraded, and in a great location close to Highway 249, Tomball, and The Woodlands. Just minutes from shopping, dining and entertainment, as well as beautiful parks and walking trails. Enjoy tranquil living with convenient amenities!

Key facts

• Wood-look flooring
• Pocket office
• Natural light

Tags

• POCKET OFFICE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• HERRINGBONE BACKSPLASH
• WOOD-LOOK FLOORING
• NATURAL LIGHT
• VAULTED CEILINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-588 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (39.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (39.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.7% in Tomball — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cedric C Smith (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 724 students, 55% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,168 (39.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.43%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,651
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: -5.58%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27219 Mockingbird Terrace Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,640 (+2%)	6mo	$279,725	$171	85
10033 Swift Fox Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,693 (+5%)	3mo	$274,900	$162	82
10010 Cottontail Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,538 (-4%)	5mo	$239,990	$156	81
10288 Badger Run Ln	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,597 (-1%)	5mo	$256,724	$161	79
10249 Badger Run Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,566 (-3%)	7mo	$266,475	$170	79
27394 Axis Deer Trl	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,689 (+5%)	6mo	$262,542	$155	78
10260 Badger Run Ln	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,689 (+5%)	4mo	$281,125	$166	71
10272 Badger Run Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,427 (-11%)	3mo	$280,260	$196	66
10228 Badger Run Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,427 (-11%)	7mo	$249,662	$175	66
27076 Badger Way	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,490 (-8%)	7mo	$249,243	$167	65
9315 Central Pl	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,602 (-0%)	5mo	$265,000	$165	65
25062 Lindsey Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,717 (+7%)	2mo	$300,400	$175	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $101,770
• Equity at exit: $238,733

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.31×
• Total profit: $319,888
• Equity at exit: $514,837

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,049 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$602 /mo · $7,225/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-588

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,793

Max offer price $161,168

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-438	-5% $-513	+0% $-588	+5% $-663	+10% $-738
Rent	-10% $-750	-5% $-669	+0% $-588	+5% $-507	+10% $-426
Rate	-1.0pp $-454	-0.5pp $-520	base $-588	+0.5pp $-656	+1.0pp $-726

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9733 Grosbeak Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,798	$1.38	45d	1	0.42mi
9829 Glen Brook Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1637	$1,999	$1.22	4d	1	0.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $265,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $265,000 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $265,000 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-02-27
    listed $265,000 Active 978-char remark

    Show marketing remark (978 chars)

    BETTER THAN NEW with no back neighbors!! Charming design at every turn, featuring an upgraded kitchen with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, herringbone backsplash and wood-look flooring. Living room has plenty of natural light with a beautiful view of the trees. Primary suite impresses with vaulted ceilings and a spacious ensuite, while secondary bedrooms bring fun and function. Pocket office makes working from home a reality, and the spacious back yard is great for playing. Even the laundry is handled - washer and dryer are included! Enjoy a reverse osmosis at the sink and a whole-home water softener already in place. Recently built and immaculately cared for, this is a step above new construction. It's move-in ready, upgraded, and in a great location close to Highway 249, Tomball, and The Woodlands. Just minutes from shopping, dining and entertainment, as well as beautiful parks and walking trails. Enjoy tranquil living with convenient amenities!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,225 · $602/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,225 · $602/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,590
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$7,225
• − Insurance: −$2,122
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,967
• − Management: −$1,967
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$11,701
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,808
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,245/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tomball

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #4239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Listed $265,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+180.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,225 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.