2841 Fowler Rd #89 · Ceres, CA 95307

$149,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 69 Days on market

Built 1973 Good condition $112/sqft · 7% above area Est $140k · 7% over ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +4.4/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this 2 bed, 2 bath gem in the Casitas Mobile Home Park. This is an all ages community. Newly added floors and freshly painted interior makes the place feel like home. This home has a new AC unit, 3 car port, storage unit, Nest thermostat, Ring doorbell and a large outdoor space to have a BBQ area or Garden. Enjoy some quiet time on your spacious porch or go hang out in the community’s recreation center or pool complete with BBQ Pits where you can enjoy larger gatherings with friends and family. You don’t want to miss out on this opportunity. Open House on Sunday September 26th from 11:00am-2:00pm.

Key facts

• Exterior paint
• Updated hvac system
• Dual-pane windows

Tags

• UPDATED HVAC SYSTEM
• DUAL-PANE WINDOWS
• NEWER ROOF
• EXTERIOR PAINT
• NEWER PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $718 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 3.8% in Ceres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#923 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools D-.
• Ceres Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #303 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,999 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.50%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $140,270
• List price: $149,999
• Delta: 6.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2841 Fowler Rd #42	0.01mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,287 (-4%)	1mo	$145,000	$113	87
2841 Fowler Rd #33	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-7%)	1mo	$145,000	$116	82
2841 Fowler #37	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	9mo	$105,000	$73	80
2841 Fowler Rd #149	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-11%)	4mo	$110,000	$92	66
2841 Fowler Rd #62	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-11%)	20mo	$90,000	$75	65
2845 E Hatch Rd #78	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	3mo	$67,500	$47	58
2845 E Hatch Rd #84	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	1mo	$128,000	$89	56
2845 E Hatch Rd #44	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+4%)	23mo	$160,000	$114	40
2845 E Hatch Rd #71	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	22mo	$110,000	$76	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $21,433
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $77,653
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95307

• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,221 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $718

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $149,999

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2685 Parkway Ceres, CA	2.0	2.0	1150	$795	$0.69	43d	1	0.33mi
2029 Venus Dr Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1336	$2,500	$1.87	23d	1	0.37mi
2121 Moffett Rd Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	43d	1	0.45mi
2232 Ridgeway Dr Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,295	$1.60	13d	1	0.73mi
2808 Canyon Dr Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,495	$1.83	21d	1	0.76mi
2714 Pyramid Ave Unit 2714 Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,895	$1.88	23d	1	0.91mi
1120 Landreth Ct Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1559	$3,395	$2.18	13d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $149,999 Pending 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,999 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,999 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $149,999 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $149,999 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $149,999 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $149,999 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,999 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $149,999 Active 60 DOM
10. 2022-02-01
    soldstatus $139,000 Closed Sale 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Welcome home to this 2 bed, 2 bath gem in the Casitas Mobile Home Park. This is an all ages community. Newly added floors and freshly painted interior makes the place feel like home. This home has a new AC unit, 3 car port, storage unit, Nest thermostat, Ring doorbell and a large outdoor space to have a BBQ area or Garden. Enjoy some quiet time on your spacious porch or go hang out in the community’s recreation center or pool complete with BBQ Pits where you can enjoy larger gatherings with friends and family. You don’t want to miss out on this opportunity. Open House on Sunday September 26th from 11:00am-2:00pm.

11. 2021-12-19
    status Pending Sale 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Welcome home to this 2 bed, 2 bath gem in the Casitas Mobile Home Park. This is an all ages community. Newly added floors and freshly painted interior makes the place feel like home. This home has a new AC unit, 3 car port, storage unit, Nest thermostat, Ring doorbell and a large outdoor space to have a BBQ area or Garden. Enjoy some quiet time on your spacious porch or go hang out in the community’s recreation center or pool complete with BBQ Pits where you can enjoy larger gatherings with friends and family. You don’t want to miss out on this opportunity. Open House on Sunday September 26th from 11:00am-2:00pm.

12. 2021-09-23
    listed $149,000 Active 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Welcome home to this 2 bed, 2 bath gem in the Casitas Mobile Home Park. This is an all ages community. Newly added floors and freshly painted interior makes the place feel like home. This home has a new AC unit, 3 car port, storage unit, Nest thermostat, Ring doorbell and a large outdoor space to have a BBQ area or Garden. Enjoy some quiet time on your spacious porch or go hang out in the community’s recreation center or pool complete with BBQ Pits where you can enjoy larger gatherings with friends and family. You don’t want to miss out on this opportunity. Open House on Sunday September 26th from 11:00am-2:00pm.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,647
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,132
• − Management: −$2,132
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $6,617
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,588
• After-tax cash flow: $7,023/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home is move-in ready with recent improvements and a good condition score.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value
• Both Replace outdoor lighting — Modern lighting can improve safety and aesthetics
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace outdoor lighting — Modern lighting can improve safety and aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ceres Unified
• NCES district ID: 0608130
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,178
• Composite: 27.96/100
• National rank: #6858
• State rank: #303 of 517 in CA

Livability — Ceres

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #923
• US rank: #24224

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ceres, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 3,939
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,310
• Household income: $80,627
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1102.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 34% White 23% Asian 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 49% Other Indo-European 7% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -362.75%
• Current HPI: 307.5192
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2022-02-01 Sold (MLS) $139,000 CRMLS
• 2021-12-19 Pending — CRMLS
• 2021-09-23 Listed $149,000 CRMLS