16 Toms Ln · La Luz, NM 88337

$110,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 972 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1965 Fair condition 1.38 ac lot ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity is knocking! Situated on 1.38 acres with stunning views of the Sacramento Mountains, this property is full of potential for the right buyer ready to bring their vision to life. Whether you're an investor, flipper, or someone looking for a project, this is your chance to create something special. The home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and hardwood flooring throughout, plus a versatile flex room that could easily become a third bedroom, office, or bonus space. With solid bones and plenty of room to customize, this property is the perfect canvas for your next investment. Outside, you’ll find ample space to expand—add a garden, workshop, or even small livestock and enjoy true country living. Even better, this property includes an additional lot at 18 Toms Ln complete with its own water meter and electric pole—ideal for building a second home, guest house, or income-producing rental. Properties with this much land, flexibility, and upside don’t come around often. Unlock the potential and make it yours today!

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• 1.38 acres
• Water meter

Tags

• 1.38 ACRES
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• FLEX ROOM
• AMPLE SPACE
• ADDITIONAL LOT
• WATER METER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $49 ($592/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $102k (6.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#70 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Alamogordo Public Schools (town): math 26% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #26 of 95 in NM (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Otero County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $102,468 (6.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.92%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-14,669
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-8,666
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88337

• Home prices YoY: -8.6%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,025 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $125	-5% $87	+0% $49	+5% $11	+10% $-27
Rent	-10% $-32	-5% $9	+0% $49	+5% $90	+10% $130
Rate	-1.0pp $105	-0.5pp $77	base $49	+0.5pp $21	+1.0pp $-8

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8 Malpais Ave La Luz, NM	3.0	1.0	1015	$1,000	$0.99	45d	1	0.28mi
8 Alicia Dr La Luz, NM	3.0	1.0	960	$1,050	$1.09	23d	1	0.29mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $110,000 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $110,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $110,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 58 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    status Active 1057-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1057 chars)

    Opportunity is knocking! Situated on 1.38 acres with stunning views of the Sacramento Mountains, this property is full of potential for the right buyer ready to bring their vision to life. Whether you're an investor, flipper, or someone looking for a project, this is your chance to create something special. The home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and hardwood flooring throughout, plus a versatile flex room that could easily become a third bedroom, office, or bonus space. With solid bones and plenty of room to customize, this property is the perfect canvas for your next investment. Outside, you’ll find ample space to expand—add a garden, workshop, or even small livestock and enjoy true country living. Even better, this property includes an additional lot at 18 Toms Ln complete with its own water meter and electric pole—ideal for building a second home, guest house, or income-producing rental. Properties with this much land, flexibility, and upside don’t come around often. Unlock the potential and make it yours today!

18. 2026-05-15
    status Pending 1057-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1057 chars)

    Opportunity is knocking! Situated on 1.38 acres with stunning views of the Sacramento Mountains, this property is full of potential for the right buyer ready to bring their vision to life. Whether you're an investor, flipper, or someone looking for a project, this is your chance to create something special. The home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and hardwood flooring throughout, plus a versatile flex room that could easily become a third bedroom, office, or bonus space. With solid bones and plenty of room to customize, this property is the perfect canvas for your next investment. Outside, you’ll find ample space to expand—add a garden, workshop, or even small livestock and enjoy true country living. Even better, this property includes an additional lot at 18 Toms Ln complete with its own water meter and electric pole—ideal for building a second home, guest house, or income-producing rental. Properties with this much land, flexibility, and upside don’t come around often. Unlock the potential and make it yours today!

19. 2026-03-27
    listed $110,000 Active 1057-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1057 chars)

    Opportunity is knocking! Situated on 1.38 acres with stunning views of the Sacramento Mountains, this property is full of potential for the right buyer ready to bring their vision to life. Whether you're an investor, flipper, or someone looking for a project, this is your chance to create something special. The home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and hardwood flooring throughout, plus a versatile flex room that could easily become a third bedroom, office, or bonus space. With solid bones and plenty of room to customize, this property is the perfect canvas for your next investment. Outside, you’ll find ample space to expand—add a garden, workshop, or even small livestock and enjoy true country living. Even better, this property includes an additional lot at 18 Toms Ln complete with its own water meter and electric pole—ideal for building a second home, guest house, or income-producing rental. Properties with this much land, flexibility, and upside don’t come around often. Unlock the potential and make it yours today!

20. 2025-06-05
    price $145,000
21. 2024-11-05
    listed $149,000 Active
22. 2024-07-01
    price $149,000
23. 2024-05-21
    price $150,000
24. 2024-03-06
    price $160,000
25. 2023-10-27
    listed $165,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,296
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$984
• − Management: −$984
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$1,233
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$296
• After-tax cash flow: $888/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This property has solid bones and potential for improvement. It requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathrooms, repair exterior siding, and improve the landscaping. With these updates, it could become a move-in-ready home with increased resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — outdated and possibly leaking
• Minor exterior siding — some discoloration

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen will attract more buyers
• Resale repair or replace windows — new windows will improve energy efficiency and curb appeal
• Resale paint interior walls — fresh paint will make the interior look more inviting
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — improved landscaping will enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · outdated and possibly leaking	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
exterior siding · some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$6,500–33,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen will attract more buyers ↑
• Resale repair or replace windows — new windows will improve energy efficiency and curb appeal ↑
• Resale paint interior walls — fresh paint will make the interior look more inviting ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — improved landscaping will enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alamogordo Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500030
• Math proficiency: 26% —
• Reading proficiency: 39% —
• Median HH income: $42,194
• Composite: 30.24/100
• National rank: #11572
• State rank: #26 of 95 in NM

Livability — La Luz

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #14588

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Luz, NM
• Population (ZIP): 1,945

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,967 people
• By 2030: 62,164 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 60,253 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 58,575 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 55,411 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 48,551 · -22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.4% · R 62.4% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+25.6 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.41%
• Current HPI: 163.7641
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-33.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Relisted — OCAOR
• 2026-05-15 Pending — OCAOR
• 2026-03-27 Listed $110,000 OCAOR
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $145,000 OCAOR
• 2024-11-05 Listed $149,000 OCAOR
• 2024-07-01 Price Changed $149,000 OCAOR
• 2024-05-21 Price Changed $150,000 OCAOR
• 2024-03-06 Price Changed $160,000 OCAOR
• 2023-10-27 Listed $165,000 OCAOR

Property tax history

-19.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $62 · -62.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.