Santa Rosa - Limited Series Plan · Zephyrhills, FL 33540

$179,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 141 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -3.2

Listing remarks

55+ age qualified community. COMING SOON! Currently under construction. Welcome to Forest Lake Estates, a 55+ age-qualified active and vibrant community, where your dream home is coming to life. We are excited to offer a stunning and brand new 2026 3 bed, 2 bath home for sale, featuring approximately 1456 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space. Located in/near Zephyrhills, this soon-to-be-completed property will offer the perfect blend of modern design and timeless comfort. Construction is underway, and soon you'll be able to step inside and experience an open-concept floor plan, high ceilings, and an abundance of natural light.

Key facts

• Modern design
• Natural light
• Under construction

Tags

• UNDER CONSTRUCTION
• MODERN DESIGN
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

🏗️ New construction. The $179,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $222,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-440 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (11.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (22.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#330 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Elementary School (math 30% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 802 students, 82% FRL); Raymond B. Stewart Middle School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 988 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 48% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 404 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $138,523 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.49%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,000
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: -19.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
41033 Lynbrook Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+4%)	26mo	$332,000	$220	62
7249 Berry Rd	1.32mi	3/2.0	1,534 (+5%)	15mo	$343,000	$224	43
7207 Elwood Rd	0.69mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,580 (+8%)	4mo	$290,000	$184	43
41310 Merrick Rd	0.89mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+24%)	1mo	$289,000	$161	39
6835 Elwood Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,736 (+19%)	28mo	$360,000	$207	37
41310 Merrick Rd	0.89mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+24%)	5mo	$155,000	$86	36
40019 Pretty Redbird Rd	1.28mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-12%)	13mo	$250,000	$194	35
40019 Proud Mockingbird Rd	1.26mi	3/1.5	1,192 (-18%)	16mo	$275,000	$231	25
40202 Proud Mockingbird Rd	1.09mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-12%)	25mo	$307,000	$240	25
40126 Proud Mockingbird Rd	1.15mi	3/2.5	1,232 (-15%)	20mo	$310,000	$252	22
40111 Pretty Redbird Rd	1.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-18%)	12mo	$150,000	$125	21
40135 Proud Mockingbird Rd	1.14mi	3/1.0	1,124 (-23%)	30mo	$260,000	$231	16

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-63,968
• Equity at exit: $33,101

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.48×
• Total profit: $-91,691
• Equity at exit: $19,195

Cash invested: $62,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 34 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 102.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $117,000 ($88/sqft)
• Median days on market: 1 d
• This list price: 74% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +74.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33540

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 404
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,385 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,164
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$278 /mo · $3,330/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $-440

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,942

Max offer price $158,352

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-286	-5% $-363	+0% $-440	+5% $-517	+10% $-593
Rent	-10% $-549	-5% $-495	+0% $-440	+5% $-385	+10% $-330
Rate	-1.0pp $-328	-0.5pp $-383	base $-440	+0.5pp $-497	+1.0pp $-556

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,500
• Closing costs: $6,660
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40984 Roselle Loop Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,799	$1.18	85d	1	0.20mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $179,000

Exterior

• Home design: New construction planLocated in Zephyrhills, FL
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,456 (living area provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan name: Santa Rosa - Limited Series

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $179,000 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $179,000 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $179,000 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $179,000 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $179,000 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $179,000 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 135 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $179,000 Active 130 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $179,000 Active 129 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $179,000 Active 128 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $179,000 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $179,000 Active 121 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 120 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 117 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $179,000 Active 116 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $179,000 Active 115 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $179,000 Active 114 DOM
20. 2026-08-26
    days on market $179,000 Active 112 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $179,000 Active 111 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $179,000 Active 110 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $179,000 Active 109 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $179,000 Active 108 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $179,000 Active 106 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $179,000 Active 105 DOM
27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $179,000 Active 104 DOM
28. 2026-08-17
    days on market $179,000 Active 103 DOM
29. 2026-08-16
    days on market $179,000 Active 102 DOM
30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $179,000 Active 101 DOM
31. 2026-08-14
    days on market $179,000 Active 100 DOM
32. 2026-08-12
    days on market $179,000 Active 99 DOM
33. 2026-08-11
    days on market $179,000 Active 98 DOM
34. 2026-08-10
    days on market $179,000 Active 97 DOM
35. 2026-08-09
    days on market $179,000 Active 96 DOM
36. 2026-08-08
    days on market $179,000 Active 95 DOM
37. 2026-08-06
    days on market $179,000 Active 93 DOM
38. 2026-08-05
    days on market $179,000 Active 92 DOM
39. 2026-08-04
    days on market $179,000 Active 91 DOM
40. 2026-08-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 90 DOM
41. 2026-07-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 87 DOM
42. 2026-07-30
    days on market $179,000 Active 85 DOM
43. 2026-07-28
    days on market $179,000 Active 84 DOM
44. 2026-07-26
    days on market $179,000 Active 82 DOM
45. 2026-07-24
    days on market $179,000 Active 80 DOM
46. 2026-07-23
    days on market $179,000 Active 79 DOM
47. 2026-07-22
    days on market $179,000 Active 78 DOM
48. 2026-07-21
    days on market $179,000 Active 77 DOM
49. 2026-07-20
    days on market $179,000 Active 76 DOM
50. 2026-07-18
    days on market $179,000 Active 73 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,623
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,435
• − Property taxes: −$3,330
• − Insurance: −$1,110
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,330
• − Management: −$1,330
• − Depreciation: −$6,458
• Taxable loss: −$9,371
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,249
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,029/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from landscaping and exterior painting to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced curb appeal can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Woodland Elementary School F FL #1,862/2,144 Nat'l #26,279/41,679 Middle Raymond B. Stewart Middle School F FL #453/571 Nat'l #8,497/14,009 High Zephyrhills High School F FL #359/667 Nat'l #9,405/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Zephyrhills

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #5760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco · 570,045 people
• City population: 48,266
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,098
• Household income: $55,426
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.57%
• Current HPI: 370.8747
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $179,000

Exterior

• Home design: New construction planLocated in Zephyrhills, FL
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,456 (living area provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan name: Santa Rosa - Limited Series