Ross Plan · Huntsville, AL 35811

$261,400

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,480 sqft · SingleFamily · 22 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks

This new single-level home features a spacious family room ideal for entertainment, while nearby is a peninsula-style kitchen that connects to an intimate dining area and a covered patio for outdoor activities. The owner's suite boasts an attached bathroom and walk-in closet, while two comfortable bedrooms are located at the opposite end of the home with access to an adjacent bathroom.

Key facts

• Attached bathroom
• Walk-in closet
• Dining area

Tags

• PENINSULA-STYLE KITCHEN
• DINING AREA
• COVERED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ATTACHED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active; Last modified: 2026-05-27
• Financial info: List price $261,400

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Plan: Ross; New construction plan
• Exterior features: Address: 128 Southern Trl, Huntsville, AL 35811

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (1,480 finished living space)

🏗️ New construction. The $261,400 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $302,535.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $261k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-616 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (18.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (28.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#3 in AL, #1,082 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Madison County (rural): math 27% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #19 of 129 in AL (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 560 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 4,709 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (1,186 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,681 (28.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.73%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $302,535
• List price: $261,400
• Delta: -13.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
249 Catalyst St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,556 (+5%)	1mo	$286,500	$184	83
114 Starling Mill Trl	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,355 (-8%)	1mo	$245,390	$181	74
6023 Edwin Jones Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,475 (-0%)	19mo	$230,000	$156	65
417 Tracer St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,556 (+5%)	19mo	$265,000	$170	62
377 Robinson Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,525 (+3%)	10mo	$266,000	$174	55
135 Oakcrest Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,551 (+5%)	4mo	$167,000	$108	54
3102 Ray Blair Pl	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,520 (+3%)	12mo	$286,000	$188	53
155 Oakcrest Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,563 (+6%)	13mo	$246,000	$157	46
3007 Lolita Pamplin Cir	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,610 (+9%)	22mo	$220,000	$137	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-80,797
• Equity at exit: $45,109

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-87,778
• Equity at exit: $26,158

Cash invested: $84,710 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35811

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 560
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,867 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,587
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$378 /mo · $4,538/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-616

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,647

Max offer price $213,403

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-407	-5% $-511	+0% $-616	+5% $-721	+10% $-825
Rent	-10% $-763	-5% $-690	+0% $-616	+5% $-542	+10% $-468
Rate	-1.0pp $-464	-0.5pp $-539	base $-616	+0.5pp $-694	+1.0pp $-774

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,634
• Closing costs: $9,076
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Marcus Byers Dr NE Huntsville, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	970	$1,405	$1.45	15d	48	0.84mi
149 Wolfe Ln Huntsville, AL	3.0	3.0	1442	$2,000	$1.39	15d	1	1.05mi
147 Wolfe Ln Huntsville, AL	3.0	3.0	1442	$2,100	$1.46	15d	1	1.05mi
128 Somerset Park Dr Huntsville, AL	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,750	$1.11	25d	1	1.12mi
229 Paca Ln Huntsville, AL	3.0	2.0	1850	$1,950	$1.05	45d	1	1.14mi
119 Wind Rush Rd Huntsville, AL	3.0	2.0	1690	$1,875	$1.11	45d	1	1.15mi
150 LILLIAN FARMS Blvd Huntsville, AL	3.0	2.0	1703	$1,900	$1.12	25d	1	1.16mi
153 LILLIAN FARMS Blvd Huntsville, AL	3.0	2.0	1703	$1,900	$1.12	25d	1	1.16mi
6111 Homestead Rd Huntsville, AL	4.0	2.0	1640	$2,500	$1.52	45d	1	1.42mi
123 Ann Bradley Dr Huntsville, AL	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,500	$1.29	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $261,400 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $261,400 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $261,400 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $261,400 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $261,400 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $261,400 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $261,400 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $261,400 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $261,400 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $261,400 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $261,400 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $261,400 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $261,400 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-02
    price $264,150 388-char remark
15. 2026-04-23
    price $259,150 388-char remark
16. 2026-03-22
    price $258,150 388-char remark
17. 2026-02-16
    listed $257,900 Active 388-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,402
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,947
• − Property taxes: −$4,538
• − Insurance: −$1,513
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,792
• − Management: −$1,792
• − Depreciation: −$8,801
• Taxable loss: −$12,981
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,115
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County
• NCES district ID: 0102220
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $66,058
• Composite: 37.15/100
• National rank: #4483
• State rank: #19 of 129 in AL

Livability — Huntsville

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #1082

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Madison County · 380,832 people
• Metro: Huntsville, AL
• Population (ZIP): 31,008
• Household income: $90,812
• Rent vs Own: 22.4% rent · 77.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 517.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 392,086 people
• By 2030: 409,788 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 440,557 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 460,990 · +17.6%
• By 2075: 502,872 · +28.3%
• By 2100: 513,623 · +31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 27% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.0) · D 44.7% · R 53.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.0pp toward D · 2008: -14.9pp · 2024: -9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.0 2020: R+8.0 2016: R+16.8 2012: R+18.7 2008: R+14.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.13%
• Current HPI: 332.9423
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.81%
• Metro: Huntsville, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B