2814 Elysian St · Houston, TX 77009

$195,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,266 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1940 5,000 sqft lot $154/sqft · 23% below area Est $360k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

***PRICED below market for quick sale*** Inviting single-story home featuring 4 spacious bedrooms and two full bath is located in prime location Lot I-610 North Loop - Just minutes from Downtown Houston. This home features a cozy kitchen with a breakfast area for your cooking needs, a formal living room for entertaining, and a capacious family room great for relaxing with friends! Enjoy the open backyard great for all your family activates!

Key facts

• Cozy kitchen
• Formal living room
• Single-story home

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• PRIME LOCATION
• COZY KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST AREA
• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• CAPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $189k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 595 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.39%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $360,274
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -45.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2710 Gano St	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,265 (-0%)	2mo	$325,000	$257	82
2212 Semmes St	0.38mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,320 (+4%)	1mo	$181,000	$137	65
1409 Morris St	0.23mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,148 (-9%)	0mo	$315,000	$274	64
1118 Hammock St	0.52mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,252 (-1%)	7mo	$280,000	$224	61
3406 Gano St	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,117 (-12%)	2mo	$199,000	$178	59
2111 Davis St	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,243 (-2%)	6mo	$175,000	$141	58
2006 Stevens St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,243 (-2%)	6mo	$225,000	$181	57
2710 Stevens St	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,168 (-8%)	7mo	$203,900	$175	56
2109 Gentry St	0.74mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,292 (+2%)	2mo	$215,000	$166	53
2112 Terry St	0.44mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,132 (-11%)	2mo	$119,500	$106	51
1816 Mckee St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,170 (-8%)	5mo	$200,000	$171	46
3411 Terry St	0.37mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,078 (-15%)	6mo	$250,000	$232	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-20,649
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-16,201
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77009

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,269 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$444 /mo · $5,324/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,959

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2706 Cochran St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1791	$2,700	$1.51	20d	1	0.31mi
914 Bunton St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1389	$1,950	$1.40	44d	1	0.64mi
1039 Hillstar St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1780	$2,750	$1.54	12d	1	0.96mi
412 Paschall St Unit 1316398P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1130	$4,840	$4.28	13d	1	0.99mi
410 James St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$6,750	$4.21	44d	1	1.02mi
410 James St Unit 1031793P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1593	$7,554	$4.74	16d	1	1.02mi
1524 Evelyn St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1804	$2,800	$1.55	44d	1	1.07mi
1625 N Main St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	994	$2,354	$2.37	3d	42	1.07mi
3300 Lyons Ave Unit 304 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1393	$1,460	$1.05	44d	1	1.17mi
1307 Bayou St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1814	$2,400	$1.32	8d	1	1.25mi
1513 Cage St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,550	$1.06	44d	1	1.26mi
1303 Bayou St Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1869	$3,200	$1.71	44d	1	1.26mi
2516 Ivy St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	44d	1	1.37mi
3730 Lyons Ave Unit 216 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,300	$1.17	44d	1	1.38mi
5124 Gold St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1650	$1,895	$1.15	44d	1	1.43mi
650 McKee St Unit 683 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1136	$2,125	$1.87	44d	1	1.44mi
650 McKee St Unit 3112 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1136	$2,082	$1.83	3d	1	1.44mi
650 McKee St Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1136	$2,114	$1.86	11d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $195,000 Pending 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $195,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $195,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-04-15
   listed $195,000 Active 444-char remark

   Show marketing remark (444 chars)

   ***PRICED below market for quick sale*** Inviting single-story home featuring 4 spacious bedrooms and two full bath is located in prime location Lot I-610 North Loop - Just minutes from Downtown Houston. This home features a cozy kitchen with a breakfast area for your cooking needs, a formal living room for entertaining, and a capacious family room great for relaxing with friends! Enjoy the open backyard great for all your family activates!

5. 2026-04-15
   historical

   Show marketing remark (444 chars)

   ***PRICED below market for quick sale*** Inviting single-story home featuring 4 spacious bedrooms and two full bath is located in prime location Lot I-610 North Loop - Just minutes from Downtown Houston. This home features a cozy kitchen with a breakfast area for your cooking needs, a formal living room for entertaining, and a capacious family room great for relaxing with friends! Enjoy the open backyard great for all your family activates!

6. 2026-02-04
   listed $250,000 Active
7. 2023-10-04
   historical
8. 2023-09-28
   historical $1,950
9. 2023-09-10
   price $1,950
10. 2023-08-29
    price $1,850
11. 2023-08-28
    price $285,000
12. 2023-05-29
    price $300,000
13. 2023-04-05
    listed $350,000 Active
14. 2016-11-01
    listed $145,000 Active
15. 2016-11-01
    historical
16. 2013-02-26
    soldstatus Sold
17. 2013-02-08
    status Pending
18. 2013-02-06
    status Active
19. 2013-01-24
    status Pending
20. 2013-01-16
    price $39,900
21. 2012-12-11
    listed $44,900 Active
22. 2006-06-01
    soldstatus
23. 2003-02-26
    soldstatus
24. 1994-08-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,324 · $444/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,324 · $444/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,232
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$5,324
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,179
• − Management: −$2,179
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$20
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5
• After-tax cash flow: $2,948/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 35,769
• Household income: $83,148
• Rent vs Own: 42.4% rent · 57.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 994.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 33% Two or more races 22% Black 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -533.57%
• Current HPI: 219.5037
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.84%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+334.3% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2023-10-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-09-28 Rental Removed $1,950 HARMLS
• 2023-09-10 Price Changed $1,950 HARMLS
• 2023-08-29 Price Changed $1,850 HARMLS
• 2023-08-28 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2023-05-29 Price Changed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2023-04-05 Listed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2016-11-01 Listed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2016-11-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-02-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-02-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-02-06 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2013-01-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-01-16 Price Changed $39,900 HARMLS
• 2012-12-11 Listed $44,900 HARMLS
• 2006-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-02-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-08-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,324 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.