7348 Chocco Rd · Big River, CA 92242

$85,000

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 900 sqft · Manufactured · 92 Days on market

Built 1980 0.58 ac lot $94/sqft · 54% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This a 1 Bedroom plus a Den. The Den could be the second bedrom by adding a closet. This home is in the final stages of being remodeled. All new flooring, all new dual paned windows, all new walls. Just needs appliances and finishing one bathroom.

Key facts

• New walls
• New flooring
• 0.58 acre lot

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• NEW DUAL PANED WINDOWS
• NEW WALLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $271 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#327 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
• Needles Unified (town): math 22% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #1,194 of 1,400 in CA (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (7.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,350 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.65%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $55,045
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: 54.42%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7400 Papago Trl	0.52mi	2/2.0 (+1)	800 (-11%)	10mo	$99,000	$124	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $48,294
• Equity at exit: $60,341

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.35×
• Total profit: $127,389
• Equity at exit: $115,949

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92242

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,086 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $329	-5% $300	+0% $271	+5% $241	+10% $212
Rent	-10% $185	-5% $228	+0% $271	+5% $314	+10% $357
Rate	-1.0pp $314	-0.5pp $292	base $271	+0.5pp $249	+1.0pp $226

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $85,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 72 DOM
17. 2026-03-19
    listed $85,000 Active 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    This a 1 Bedroom plus a Den. The Den could be the second bedrom by adding a closet. This home is in the final stages of being remodeled. All new flooring, all new dual paned windows, all new walls. Just needs appliances and finishing one bathroom.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥116°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,035
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,043
• − Management: −$1,043
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $2,016
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$484
• After-tax cash flow: $2,765/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Needles Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626760
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $31,795
• Composite: 23.35/100
• National rank: #13305
• State rank: #1194 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Big River

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #327
• US rank: #11065

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big River, CA
• Population (ZIP): 1,203

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.26%
• Current HPI: 183.526
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $85,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $165 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.