205 Holly Dr · Midland, TX 79703

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1952 7,362 sqft lot Est $99k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 BED 2 BATH HOME READY TO MAKE YOUR OWN. SOLD AS IS.

Key facts

• 7,362 sq ft lot
• Built 1952
• Listed 15 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Permian Estates subdivision; GPS-friendly directions

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; 1 story; Slab foundation
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation; Single-family construction
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fan(s); Has cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Carpet and tile flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $874 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.6% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Long El (math 36% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,464 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 667 students, 80% FRL); Alamo J H (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 865 students, 62% FRL); Legacy H S (math 37% / reading 3%, grade F, #1,397 of 1,632 statewide, top 87%, 2,504 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 64 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,725 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.07%
• DSCR: 2.96
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $98,736
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2907 Mariana Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,292 (-14%)	8mo	$85,500	$66	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $36,319
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.44×
• Total profit: $81,786
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79703

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,923 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,968/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $874

Break-even live

Break-even rent $817

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $922	-5% $898	+0% $874	+5% $850	+10% $826
Rent	-10% $722	-5% $798	+0% $874	+5% $950	+10% $1,026
Rate	-1.0pp $917	-0.5pp $896	base $874	+0.5pp $852	+1.0pp $830

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3403 Thomas Ave Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1472	$2,000	$1.36	14d	1	0.10mi
3811 Cedar Spring Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	44d	1	0.40mi
3506 Apache Dr Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	1004	$1,800	$1.79	21d	1	0.43mi
3105 Barkley Ave Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1730	$2,350	$1.36	14d	1	0.53mi
3607 W Michigan Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1535	$2,500	$1.63	21d	1	0.53mi
3100 Thomas Ave Midland, TX	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,400	$1.85	44d	1	0.53mi
4000 W Illinois Ave Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	755	$1,545	$2.05	21d	10	0.58mi
2812 Mariana Ave Midland, TX	3.0	1.5	1443	$1,750	$1.21	44d	1	0.59mi
3401 Storey Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1531	$2,200	$1.44	44d	1	0.69mi
3401 Storey Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1531	$2,200	$1.44	21d	1	0.69mi
3311 Storey Ave Midland, TX	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,700	$1.55	14d	1	0.70mi
3712 Amelia Dr Midland, TX	3.0	1.0	1046	$2,000	$1.91	21d	1	0.72mi
2704 Delano Ave Midland, TX	3.0	1.0	1220	$1,900	$1.56	45d	1	0.75mi
509 Delmar St Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1116	$1,796	$1.61	14d	8	0.78mi
3007 W Louisiana Ave Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	925	$1,079	$1.17	21d	1	0.78mi
2910 W Michigan Ave Unit 101 Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1215	$1,350	$1.11	44d	1	0.79mi
2910 W Michigan Ave Unit 110 Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	980	$1,250	$1.28	44d	1	0.79mi
2910 W Michigan Ave Unit 110 Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	980	$1,250	$1.28	14d	1	0.79mi
2928 W Louisiana Ave Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,395	$1.47	44d	1	0.86mi
2901 W Louisiana Ave Unit 3 Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	925	$1,090	$1.18	44d	1	0.87mi
2928 W Louisiana Ave Unit 213 Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,400	$0.97	44d	1	0.87mi
2928 W Louisiana Ave Unit 221 Midland, TX	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,200	$1.20	44d	1	0.87mi
2928 W Louisiana Ave Unit 216 Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,050	$1.11	44d	1	0.87mi
4409 Roosevelt Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,750	$1.42	45d	1	0.89mi
2929 W Kansas Ave Unit 317 Midland, TX	2.0	1.5	1050	$1,200	$1.14	44d	1	0.90mi
4313 Storey Ave Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1255	$2,000	$1.59	44d	1	0.90mi
2929 W Kansas Ave Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	44d	1	0.90mi
2805 W Louisiana Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1178	$2,400	$2.04	21d	1	0.93mi
4515 Monty Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1853	$2,400	$1.30	44d	1	0.98mi
4403 Crockett Ave Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1065	$1,800	$1.69	21d	1	1.00mi
4405 Crockett Ave Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	44d	1	1.02mi
2705 W Kentucky Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	924	$1,800	$1.95	21d	1	1.05mi
4603 Mercedes Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$2,199	$1.32	21d	1	1.05mi
4503 Crockett Ave Unit B Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,000	$1.60	44d	1	1.09mi
4506 Storey Ave Midland, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,650	$1.18	14d	1	1.10mi
4519 Crockett Ave Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1465	$1,900	$1.30	21d	1	1.13mi
4525 Crockett Ave Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1400	$4,250	$3.04	21d	1	1.15mi
705 Ainslee St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,900	$1.66	21d	1	1.15mi
2406 W Louisiana Ave Midland, TX	2.0	1.5	1620	$2,500	$1.54	44d	1	1.17mi
4610 Storey Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,899	$1.60	21d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $85,000 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active Under Contract 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active Under Contract 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active Under Contract 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active Under Contract 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $85,000 Active Under Contract 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $85,000 Active Under Contract 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $85,000 Active Under Contract 6 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $85,000 Active Under Contract 5 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active Under Contract 4 DOM
11. 2026-05-26
    listed $85,000 Active
12. 2006-07-05
    soldstatus
13. 2001-08-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,968 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,968 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,076
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,968
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,846
• − Management: −$1,846
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $9,756
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,342
• After-tax cash flow: $8,146/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,419
• Household income: $77,285
• Rent vs Own: 37.9% rent · 62.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 417.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 34% Two or more races 16% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 38% Arabic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -250.72%
• Current HPI: 224.6222
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.33%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $85,000 PBBOR
• 2006-07-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-08-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,968 · -16.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.