5810 Buffalo Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14304

$125,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,854 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 121 Days on market

Built 1925 6,240 sqft lot Est $230k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the potential in this classic brick home located in the heart of Niagara Falls. Built in 1925, this spacious residence offers four bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and approximately 1,854 square feet of living space. The layout includes a large living area with a fireplace and a bonus recreation or game room, providing flexibility for a variety of uses. While the home needs updates and some TLC, it offers a solid foundation and timeless character ready to be restored. Set on a nicely sized lot in a well-established neighborhood, the property is conveniently located near schools, parks, and local amenities. This is a great opportunity for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to cre

Key facts

• Large living area
• Classic brick home
• Fireplace

Tags

• CLASSIC BRICK HOME
• LARGE LIVING AREA
• FIREPLACE
• BONUS RECREATION ROOM
• WELL-ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $545 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $125k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.69%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $229,896
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
425 66th St	0.58mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,796 (-3%)	18mo	$190,000	$106	45
204 63rd St	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,617 (-13%)	23mo	$200,000	$124	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $14,462
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $57,305
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14304

• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,736 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,422/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $545

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,046

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
508 59th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	2070	$1,400	$0.68	1d	1	0.52mi
3225 Belden Pl Niagara Falls, NY	5.0	1.5	1344	$1,750	$1.30	1d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-01-16
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-14
   status Active
3. 2025-09-08
   status Pending
4. 2025-09-07
   historical
5. 2025-09-07
   historical
6. 2025-09-06
   historical
7. 2025-09-05
   status Active
8. 2025-09-05
   price $125,000
9. 2025-09-02
   price $139,900
10. 2025-08-27
    listed $149,900 Active
11. 2025-07-28
    listed $225,000 Active
12. 2008-06-02
    soldstatus $69,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,422 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,768 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: +$345/yr (+$29/mo · 24.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,828
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,422
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,666
• − Management: −$1,666
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $4,810
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,154
• After-tax cash flow: $5,386/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 29,208
• Household income: $66,660
• Rent vs Own: 24.9% rent · 75.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 698.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.77%
• Current HPI: 280.3295
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+79.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-10-14 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2025-09-08 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-09-07 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-09-07 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-09-06 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-09-05 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $125,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $139,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-08-27 Listed $149,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-07-28 Listed $225,000 WNYREIS
• 2008-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $69,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,422 · +61.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.