2161 NE 38th St · Ocala, FL 34479

$152,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,412 sqft · SingleFamily · 8 Days on market

Built 1980 Fair condition 0.34 ac lot $108/sqft · 33% below area Est $227k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This spacious 3Bd/2Ba charmer can be your dream come true for owning an affordable home. It offers a gorgeous wood burning fireplace in the living room area and upgraded kitchen and baths. Experience the serenity of nature with several beautiful trees on over a third of an acre! This one has it all. It needs some TLC but is priced right. Hurry, this will go fast!

Key facts

• Upgraded kitchen
• 0.34 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• OVER A THIRD OF AN ACRE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential zoning (R1); Property type: Single Family Residence
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Carport (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; South-facing entry
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on approximately 0.34-acre lot
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt road access; Lot dimensions approximately 90 x 166

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Wood-burning fireplace
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room (Other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $152k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $379 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $152k).
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 4.2% in Ocala — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.68%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $227,010
• List price: $152,000
• Delta: -33.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3881 NE 22nd Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-0%)	4mo	$265,000	$188	90
3601 NE 24th Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,308 (-7%)	12mo	$199,900	$153	61
3052 NE 21st Court Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+6%)	2mo	$254,490	$169	60
1841 NE 38th St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,603 (+14%)	10mo	$275,200	$172	58
2310 NE 43rd St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,482 (+5%)	20mo	$240,000	$162	58
3993 NE 19th Ave	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+13%)	7mo	$250,000	$156	57
3601 NE 18th Ter	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-9%)	21mo	$200,000	$155	56
2048 NE 45th St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,370 (-3%)	21mo	$234,000	$171	56
4056 NE 20th Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,243 (-12%)	19mo	$250,000	$201	55
4480 NE 25th Ave	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,377 (-2%)	15mo	$236,999	$172	52
2220 NE 41st St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-15%)	17mo	$131,000	$109	51
2864 NE 21st Court Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+6%)	11mo	$272,990	$182	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-474
• Equity at exit: $22,664

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $30,768
• Equity at exit: $13,142

Cash invested: $42,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34479

• Home prices YoY: -31.0%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,809 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$797
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$190 /mo · $2,280/yr
• Insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $379

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,330

Max offer price $152,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $484	-5% $431	+0% $379	+5% $326	+10% $274
Rent	-10% $236	-5% $307	+0% $379	+5% $450	+10% $522
Rate	-1.0pp $455	-0.5pp $418	base $379	+0.5pp $339	+1.0pp $299

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,000
• Closing costs: $4,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3219 NE 16th Ct Unit 3219 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	14d	1	0.67mi
2855 NE 20th Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,875	$1.25	14d	1	0.77mi
2122 NE 28th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1328	$2,100	$1.58	14d	1	0.78mi
3656 NE 30th Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.5	1853	$2,150	$1.16	14d	1	0.87mi
2190 NE 54th St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,450	$0.90	14d	1	1.05mi
3380 NE 44th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,650	$1.19	22d	1	1.19mi
1405 NE 55th St Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,400	$1.36	22d	1	1.35mi
2205 NE 14th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	1.0	1020	$1,345	$1.32	22d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $152,000 Active 366-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,711
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,514
• − Property taxes: −$2,280
• − Insurance: −$760
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,737
• − Management: −$1,737
• − Depreciation: −$4,422
• Taxable income: $2,261
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$543
• After-tax cash flow: $4,004/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathrooms, paint interior walls, and replace carpeting with hardwood or tile. The home's location and size make it a good investment opportunity.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of updating
• Minor bathroom fixtures — standard fixtures
• Moderate exterior siding — showing some wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen would appeal to buyers and renters
• Both update bathrooms with new fixtures and tile — modernizing bathrooms would appeal to buyers and renters
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint would improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace carpeting with hardwood or tile — hardwood or tile flooring would increase the home's value and appeal to buyers and renters
• Both trim and maintain landscaping — well-maintained landscaping would improve the home's curb appeal and attract buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of updating	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · standard fixtures	Minor	$500–3,000
exterior siding · showing some wear	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$6,500–33,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen would appeal to buyers and renters ↑
• Both update bathrooms with new fixtures and tile — modernizing bathrooms would appeal to buyers and renters ↑
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint would improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace carpeting with hardwood or tile — hardwood or tile flooring would increase the home's value and appeal to buyers and renters ↑
• Both trim and maintain landscaping — well-maintained landscaping would improve the home's curb appeal and attract buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ocala

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #8461

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 263,375
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,264
• Household income: $54,283
• Rent vs Own: 25.6% rent · 74.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 664.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 14% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Estonian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.70%
• Current HPI: 248.7063
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Listed $152,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid