142 Thunderhead · Canyon Lake, TX 78070

$119,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,012 sqft · Manufactured public records · 142 Days on market

Built 1999 0.41 ac lot $60/sqft · 51% below area ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Here is your own piece of the Hill Country in Spring Branch! This open, airy 4 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home provides over 2,000 square feet of living space. It offers a split master and study with large bathroom and a second bedroom on one side. In the center is a living room that leads to the kitchen/dining area with a view to the back yard. On the right side are two more bedrooms and a full bath. Sold as-is.

Key facts

• Study
• Back yard
• Living room

Tags

• SPLIT MASTER
• STUDY
• LIVING ROOM
• KITCHEN DINING AREA
• BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $971 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 633 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.72%
• DSCR: 2.55
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $246,945
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -51.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $42,463
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.48×
• Total profit: $116,726
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78070

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Active inventory: 633
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,249 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,520/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $971

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,019

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,039	-5% $1,005	+0% $971	+5% $938	+10% $904
Rent	-10% $794	-5% $883	+0% $971	+5% $1,060	+10% $1,149
Rate	-1.0pp $1,032	-0.5pp $1,002	base $971	+0.5pp $940	+1.0pp $909

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $119,900 Pending 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,900 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $119,900 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $119,900 Active 135 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $119,900 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $119,900 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $119,900 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-04-16
    price $119,900 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    Here is your own piece of the Hill Country in Spring Branch! This open, airy 4 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home provides over 2,000 square feet of living space. It offers a split master and study with large bathroom and a second bedroom on one side. In the center is a living room that leads to the kitchen/dining area with a view to the back yard. On the right side are two more bedrooms and a full bath. Sold as-is.

11. 2026-02-20
    price $133,000 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    Here is your own piece of the Hill Country in Spring Branch! This open, airy 4 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home provides over 2,000 square feet of living space. It offers a split master and study with large bathroom and a second bedroom on one side. In the center is a living room that leads to the kitchen/dining area with a view to the back yard. On the right side are two more bedrooms and a full bath. Sold as-is.

12. 2026-01-19
    listed $140,000 New 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    Here is your own piece of the Hill Country in Spring Branch! This open, airy 4 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home provides over 2,000 square feet of living space. It offers a split master and study with large bathroom and a second bedroom on one side. In the center is a living room that leads to the kitchen/dining area with a view to the back yard. On the right side are two more bedrooms and a full bath. Sold as-is.

13. 2025-04-17
    historical
14. 2025-03-07
    price $130,000
15. 2025-02-12
    price $119,000
16. 2025-01-30
    price $159,000
17. 2025-01-27
    price $165,000
18. 2025-01-20
    listed $170,000 Active
19. 1999-04-23
    soldstatus
20. 1995-01-25
    soldstatus
21. 1984-01-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,520 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,194 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$674/yr (+$56/mo · 44.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,990
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,520
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,159
• − Management: −$2,159
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $10,348
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,483
• After-tax cash flow: $9,174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,200
• Household income: $115,175
• Rent vs Own: 10.8% rent · 89.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 73.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.35%
• Current HPI: 233.2875
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-29.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $119,900 LERA
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $133,000 LERA
• 2026-01-19 Listed $140,000 LERA
• 2025-04-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-07 Price Changed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-12 Price Changed $119,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-30 Price Changed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-27 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-20 Listed $170,000 HARMLS
• 1999-04-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-01-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1984-01-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,520 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.