37340 Neukom Ave · Zephyrhills, FL 33541

$220,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 282 Days on market

Built 2002 6,120 sqft lot Est $168k · 31% over $77/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Live the Active adult 55+ lifestyle in this GATED community of Grand Horizons, where you OWN your land! This Jacobsen manufactured home features a host of impressive features, including a BRAND NEW 2026 Water heater and the ROOF was replaced in September 2021.The convenient galley kitchen is equipped with a 2024 dishwasher and disposal, along with a range and microwave that are just six years old. Enjoy peace of mind with a six-year-old AC unit, complete with a 10-year warranty. The home features inviting laminate floors in the kitchen, dining area, and foyer, enhancing its overall appeal. With two spacious bedrooms PLUS a versatile den/office/flex room, there's plenty of space to relax and

Key facts

• Gated community
• Laminate floors
• Galley kitchen

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• BRAND-NEW ROOF
• GALLEY KITCHEN
• 2024 DISHWASHER
• SIX-YEAR-OLD AC UNIT
• LAMINATE FLOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage is less than 1/4 acre; Shed(s) on property
• HOA & community: Grand Horizons HOA with required monthly fee of $77; Association fee includes common area taxes, pool, management, private road, recreational facilities; Clubhouse, pool, sidewalks, street lights, community mailbox, deed restrictions; Buyer approval required; Golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed with limits (max ~40 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Carport with 1 space
• Security: Gated community; Security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; BB/HS internet available; Underground utilities; Sprinkler meter
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; Faces east; Living area from public records
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed patio/porch; Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Paved lot with sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Window treatments; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Indoor laundry in a laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5 ($63/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.7% in Zephyrhills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#330 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Zephyrhills Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 615 students, 81% FRL); Centennial Middle School (math 39% / reading 41%, grade F, #368 of 571 statewide, top 65%, 648 students, 72% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 48% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 862 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 282 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $220k implies a 147% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,733 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 282 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $168,480
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37501 Campo Ave	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,296 (0%)	2mo	$140,000	$108	78
37652 New Horizons Blvd	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,396 (+8%)	3mo	$240,000	$172	75
37635 Gill Ave	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,407 (+9%)	3mo	$217,000	$154	73
37510 New Horizons Blvd	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (+15%)	2mo	$215,000	$144	67
37533 Rio Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (0%)	14mo	$145,500	$112	61
37539 Rio Ln	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+4%)	14mo	$175,000	$130	60
7109 EL Matador St	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,332 (+3%)	9mo	$128,000	$96	58
37551 Gill Ave	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (+15%)	9mo	$235,000	$158	56
37526 Rio Ln	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,448 (+12%)	3mo	$180,000	$124	54
7131 EL Dewitt St	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+11%)	6mo	$150,000	$104	47
37611 Amigo Dr	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,196 (-8%)	14mo	$140,000	$117	46
37642 Amigo Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,204 (-7%)	14mo	$156,000	$130	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-40,740
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-56,017
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 862
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,847 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,581/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$77
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,841

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $130	-5% $68	+0% $5	+5% $-57	+10% $-119
Rent	-10% $-141	-5% $-68	+0% $5	+5% $78	+10% $151
Rate	-1.0pp $116	-0.5pp $61	base $5	+0.5pp $-52	+1.0pp $-110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7660 Emerson Hill Cir Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1077	$1,970	$1.83	0d	34	0.59mi
37814 Daughtery Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1070	$1,395	$1.30	6d	1	0.76mi
8313 Wheat Stone Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1864	$2,275	$1.22	26d	1	1.06mi
6633 Foxmoor Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	26d	1	1.11mi
6773 Branham Mill Ct Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,950	$1.34	26d	1	1.12mi
7064 Ripple Pond Loop Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$2,047	$1.15	16d	1	1.16mi
6335 Maisie Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,650	$1.21	22d	1	1.32mi
6788 Basswood Cir Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,250	$1.17	26d	1	1.33mi
38350 Ironwood Pl #5 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,800	$1.65	26d	1	1.36mi
6262 Maisie Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,700	$1.25	26d	1	1.37mi
6249 Maisai Rd #6 Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1561	$1,550	$0.99	4d	1	1.39mi
6246 Timberly Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,900	$1.39	26d	1	1.39mi
6302 Abbott Station Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	855	$1,732	$2.02	0d	141	1.39mi
37732 Cecil Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	26d	1	1.40mi
37661 Aaralyn Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,800	$1.32	26d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $77 · $924/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 282 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 281 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 280 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 279 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 277 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 273 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 272 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $220,000 Active 271 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $220,000 Active 268 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 267 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 266 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 265 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 264 DOM
14. 2025-12-06
    price $220,000
15. 2025-09-09
    listed $240,000 Active
16. 2025-06-30
    historical
17. 2025-02-27
    price $260,000
18. 2024-12-28
    listed $275,000 Active
19. 2003-11-10
    soldstatus $89,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,581 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,826 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$245/yr (+$20/mo · 15.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,168
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$1,581
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,773
• − Management: −$1,773
• − HOA: −$924
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$3,707
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$890
• After-tax cash flow: $953/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #5760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 48,266
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+147.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-09 Listed $240,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-27 Price Changed $260,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-28 Listed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-11-10 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,581 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.