663 Avoy Rd · Lake, PA 18436

$260,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,039 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1910 6.40 ac lot $250/sqft · 33% above area Est $283k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare opportunity to own over 6 acres of open and usable land in a quiet Lake Ariel setting. The property features a large, traditional 30 x 40 sq. ft. barn with strong presence and multiple potential uses including storage, workshop space, or future conversion. The existing farmhouse is in poor condition and requires a complete renovation or possible teardown, making this an ideal opportunity for investors, builders, or buyers looking to start fresh. With its combination of acreage, privacy, and a standout barn, this property offers excellent potential for those looking to create their own vision in Wayne County.

Key facts

• Complete renovation
• Future conversion
• Usable land

Tags

• OVER 6 ACRES
• USABLE LAND
• LARGE BARN
• MULTIPLE POTENTIAL USES
• COMPLETE RENOVATION
• FUTURE CONVERSION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-329/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Western Wayne SD (rural): math 39% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #165 of 539 in PA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 337 active listings in the ZIP; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $73k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $118k; list at $260k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $216,276 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.45%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $283,117
• List price: $260,000
• Delta: -8.17%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
261 S Fairway Dr	0.41mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,066 (+3%)	16mo	$260,000	$244	54
67 Wedge Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,072 (+3%)	18mo	$280,000	$261	44
36 Fawn Rd	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,100 (+6%)	15mo	$235,000	$214	39
23 Highland Ln	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (-10%)	9mo	$199,900	$214	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $139,854
• Equity at exit: $234,229

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.68×
• Total profit: $413,209
• Equity at exit: $505,123

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18436

• Home prices YoY: 16.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,163 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$264 /mo · $3,170/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,197

Max offer price $255,162

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $260,000 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $260,000 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $260,000 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $260,000 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $260,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $260,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $260,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $260,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $260,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $260,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $260,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $260,000 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $260,000 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,000 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $260,000 Active 70 DOM
16. 2026-03-20
    listed $260,000 Active 620-char remark

    Show marketing remark (620 chars)

    Rare opportunity to own over 6 acres of open and usable land in a quiet Lake Ariel setting. The property features a large, traditional 30 x 40 sq. ft. barn with strong presence and multiple potential uses including storage, workshop space, or future conversion. The existing farmhouse is in poor condition and requires a complete renovation or possible teardown, making this an ideal opportunity for investors, builders, or buyers looking to start fresh. With its combination of acreage, privacy, and a standout barn, this property offers excellent potential for those looking to create their own vision in Wayne County.

17. 2011-07-29
    soldstatus $118,000
18. 2009-02-21
    listed $184,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,170 · $264/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,639 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$469/yr (+$39/mo · 14.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,953
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$3,170
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,076
• − Management: −$2,076
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$4,797
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,151
• After-tax cash flow: $823/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Western Wayne SD
• NCES district ID: 4226070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,358
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2964
• State rank: #165 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,225

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.95%
• Current HPI: 331.9645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+40.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $260,000 PWMLS
• 2011-07-29 Sold (MLS) $118,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2009-02-21 Listed $184,500 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,170 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.