1421 Martin Luther King Junior Blvd Unit B · Panama City, FL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 10/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 105°F)
- 6 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 18 days/yr
Wind risk 9/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 0 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +8.3/15.0
- Cash flow +8.2/30.0
- Schools +4.1/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Livability +3.6/5.0
- 1% rule +2.6/10.0
- Rent growth +2.6/5.0
- DSCR +2.2/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$199,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Perfectly positioned for convenience and comfort, this beautifully designed 2-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome offers easy access to shopping, dining, schools, and is just minutes from the new Martin Luther King Jr. Recreation Center. The main level features a spacious open living area and a well-appointed kitchen with stainless steel appliances, making everyday living and entertaining effortless. A private garage adds everyday convenience with secure parking, additional storage space, and easy access during Florida's unpredictable weather. Upstairs, each bedroom features its own private bathroom, creating the ideal setup for families, guests, or roommates who appreciate privacy.
Key facts
- Private garage
- Open living area
- Private bathroom
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $199k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-188 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (13.7% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (24.5% below list).
- Recommended offer: $150k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
- Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Northside Elementary School (math 49% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,191 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 598 students, 59% FRL); Jinks Middle School (math 41% / reading 42%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 570 students, 70% FRL); Bay High School (math 37% / reading 34%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 1,255 students, 53% FRL).
- Market conditions: Rents flat; 401 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 109d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.76% ✗
- Cap rate
- 5.16%
- Cash-on-cash
- -4.04%
- DSCR
- 0.82
- GRM
- 11.0
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $202,783
- List price
- $199,000
- Delta
- -1.87%
- Verdict
- FAIR
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1218 Louisiana Ave | 0.20mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,072 (+6%) | 0mo | $225,000 | $210 | 72 |
| 718 E 12th St | 0.32mi | 2/2.0 | 910 (-10%) | 8mo | $190,000 | $209 | 61 |
| 1210 Hamilton Ave | 0.24mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,122 (+11%) | 10mo | $255,000 | $227 | 54 |
| 1208 Louisiana Ave | 0.25mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,122 (+11%) | 11mo | $125,000 | $111 | 53 |
| 1332 N Palo Alto Ave | 0.19mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,134 (+13%) | 8mo | $150,000 | $132 | 53 |
| 908 Cone Ave | 0.68mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 988 (-2%) | 3mo | $115,000 | $116 | 52 |
| 709 E 10th Ct | 0.44mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,137 (+13%) | 1mo | $225,000 | $198 | 50 |
| 911 Wilson Ave | 0.66mi | 2/2.0 | 900 (-11%) | 3mo | $242,500 | $269 | 47 |
| 1017 E Hamilton Ave | 0.46mi | 2/1.0 | 856 (-15%) | 8mo | $258,000 | $301 | 41 |
| 713 E 10th Ct | 0.44mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,152 (+14%) | 11mo | $225,000 | $195 | 40 |
| 910 E 9th Ct | 0.64mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,111 (+10%) | 8mo | $225,000 | $203 | 40 |
| 909 Louisiana Ave | 0.62mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,137 (+13%) | 8mo | $240,000 | $211 | 36 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.45% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -26.0%
- Equity multiple
- 0.14×
- Total profit
- $-47,941
- Equity at exit
- $29,672
- IRR
- -33.7%
- Equity multiple
- -0.29×
- Total profit
- $-71,715
- Equity at exit
- $17,206
Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 22 active · 11 under contract
- Months of supply
- 13.2 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $215,000 ($208/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 113 d
- This list price
- 14% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- -3.1% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 32401
- Home prices YoY
- -32.9%
- Rents YoY
- 0.5%
- Active inventory
- 401
- Price-to-rent
- 11.0×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,503 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,044
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
- Insurance
- −$83
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$316
- Net cashflow
- $-188
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-50 | -5% $-119 | +0% $-188 | +5% $-256 | +10% $-325 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-306 | -5% $-247 | +0% $-188 | +5% $-128 | +10% $-69 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-88 | -0.5pp $-137 | base $-188 | +0.5pp $-239 | +1.0pp $-292 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $49,750
- Closing costs
- $5,970
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 24 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 606 E 13th St Unit 1 Panama City, FL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 700 | $1,250 | $1.79 | 116d | 1 | 0.20mi |
| 1114 Mc Kenzie Ave Unit 1 Panama City, FL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 880 | $1,850 | $2.10 | 116d | 1 | 0.50mi |
| 1129 Magnolia Ave Panama City, FL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 828 | $895 | $1.08 | 6d | 1 | 0.59mi |
| 400 E 19th St Unit A1 Panama City, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 785 | $1,095 | $1.39 | 108d | 1 | 0.66mi |
| 1525 Oak Ave Panama City, FL | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1280 | $2,200 | $1.72 | 116d | 1 | 0.78mi |
| 2002 Wilson Ave Panama City, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 977 | $1,754 | $1.79 | 0d | 27 | 0.81mi |
| 265 15th St Panama City, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 967 | $1,252 | $1.29 | 108d | 4 | 0.83mi |
| 1538 Mulberry Ave Panama City, FL | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1000 | $1,100 | $1.10 | 6d | 1 | 0.85mi |
| 1164 Mulberry Ave Panama City, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1234 | $1,495 | $1.21 | 6d | 1 | 0.86mi |
| 1132 Mulberry Ave Panama City, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1400 | $1,795 | $1.28 | 6d | 1 | 0.88mi |
| 2121 Harrison Ave Panama City, FL | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 800 | $1,550 | $1.94 | 116d | 13 | 0.97mi |
| 2121 Harrison Ave Panama City, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 900 | $1,525 | $1.69 | 2d | 5 | 1.00mi |
| 705 Satsuma Ave Panama City, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1030 | $1,700 | $1.65 | 5d | 1 | 1.10mi |
| 540 E 4th Ct Panama City, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1196 | $1,800 | $1.51 | 116d | 1 | 1.26mi |
| 723 W 19th St Panama City, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1170 | $1,596 | $1.36 | 2d | 15 | 1.29mi |
| 725 Sherman Ave Unit B Panama City, FL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 878 | $1,250 | $1.42 | 116d | 1 | 1.30mi |
| 388 Massalina Dr Panama City, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 800 | $1,800 | $2.25 | 108d | 1 | 1.33mi |
| 810 E 25th St Panama City, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1000 | $1,050 | $1.05 | 6d | 1 | 1.33mi |
| 804 College Ave Panama City, FL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 810 | $1,250 | $1.54 | 6d | 1 | 1.43mi |
| 300 W 23rd Pl Unit 1491599P Panama City, FL | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1313 | $2,592 | $1.97 | 116d | 1 | 1.44mi |
| 329 N Palo Alto Ave Unit B Panama City, FL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 800 | $750 | $0.94 | 116d | 1 | 1.44mi |
| 329 N Palo Alto Ave Panama City, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1300 | $1,950 | $1.50 | 108d | 1 | 1.44mi |
| 335 Massalina Dr Panama City, FL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 742 | $1,200 | $1.62 | 108d | 1 | 1.46mi |
| 2623 E 16th St Unit A Panama City, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1250 | $1,395 | $1.12 | 6d | 1 | 1.49mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- HOA & community
- Short-term rentals allowed
Exterior
- Parking
- Attached garage with garage door opener (1 car)
- Security
- Fire alarm
- Utilities
- Electricity availableHigh-speed internet availableSewer available
- Home design
- New constructionTwo-story propertySlab foundation
- Construction
- HardiPlank exteriorWood frame constructionMetal roof
- Exterior features
- Paved lotCity street frontagePublicly maintained road
Interior
- Kitchen
- Electric cooktopElectric ovenIcemaker
- Bedrooms
- Two bedrooms, both on the second floor (approx. 12 x 10 and 13 x 13)
- Bathrooms
- Two full bathrooms and one half bathroom
- Heating & cooling
- Central heating (electric)Central air conditioningCeiling fans
- Interior features
- Double-pane windowsFire alarm
- Laundry & utility
- Electric water heater
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-09-24days on market $199,000 Active 145 DOM
-
2026-09-22days on market $199,000 Active 144 DOM
-
2026-09-20days on market $199,000 Active 142 DOM
-
2026-09-19days on market $199,000 Active 141 DOM
-
2026-09-18days on market $199,000 Active 140 DOM
-
2026-09-17days on market $199,000 Active 139 DOM
-
2026-09-16days on market $199,000 Active 138 DOM
-
2026-09-15days on market $199,000 Active 137 DOM
-
2026-09-14days on market $199,000 Active 136 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $199,000 Active 135 DOM
-
2026-09-12days on market $199,000 Active 134 DOM
-
2026-09-12days on market $199,000 Active 133 DOM
-
2026-09-05days on market $199,000 Active 127 DOM
-
2026-09-04days on market $199,000 Active 126 DOM
-
2026-09-03days on market $199,000 Active 125 DOM
-
2026-08-30days on market $199,000 Active 121 DOM
-
2026-08-29days on market $199,000 Active 120 DOM
-
2026-08-28days on market $199,000 Active 119 DOM
-
2026-08-27days on market $199,000 Active 118 DOM
-
2026-08-26days on market $199,000 Active 117 DOM
-
2026-08-25days on market $199,000 Active 116 DOM
-
2026-08-24days on market $199,000 Active 115 DOM
-
2026-08-23days on market $199,000 Active 114 DOM
-
2026-08-22days on market $199,000 Active 113 DOM
-
2026-08-21days on market $199,000 Active 112 DOM
-
2026-08-20days on market $199,000 Active 111 DOM
-
2026-08-19days on market $199,000 Active 110 DOM
-
2026-08-18days on market $199,000 Active 109 DOM
-
2026-08-17days on market $199,000 Active 108 DOM
-
2026-08-16days on market $199,000 Active 107 DOM
-
2026-08-15days on market $199,000 Active 106 DOM
-
2026-08-14days on market $199,000 Active 105 DOM
-
2026-08-13days on market $199,000 Active 104 DOM
-
2026-08-12days on market $199,000 Active 103 DOM
-
2026-08-11days on market $199,000 Active 102 DOM
-
2026-08-10days on market $199,000 Active 101 DOM
-
2026-08-09days on market $199,000 Active 100 DOM
-
2026-08-08days on market $199,000 Active 99 DOM
-
2026-08-07days on market $199,000 Active 98 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $199,000 Active 97 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $199,000 Active 96 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $199,000 Active 95 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $199,000 Active 94 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $199,000 Active 91 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $199,000 Active 90 DOM
-
2026-07-30price $199,000 Active 89 DOM
-
2026-07-29days on market $204,000 Active 89 DOM
-
2026-07-27days on market $204,000 Active 87 DOM
-
2026-07-25days on market $204,000 Active 85 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $204,000 Active 83 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $18,038
- − Mortgage interest
- −$11,147
- − Property taxes
- −$2,985
- − Insurance
- −$995
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,443
- − Management
- −$1,443
- − Depreciation
- −$5,789
- Taxable loss
- −$5,764
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$1,383
- After-tax cash flow
- $-869/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
This well-maintained townhome is move-in ready with a good condition score and potential for further value enhancement through minor updates.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
- Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
- Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
- Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and attractive to potential buyers/tenants. ↑
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Bay
- NCES district ID
- 1200090
- Math proficiency
- 51% ▼ -8.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 51% ▼ -7.00%
- Median HH income
- $47,740
- Composite
- 43.41/100
- National rank
- #3014
- State rank
- #29 of 73 in FL
Livability — Panama City
- Score
- 72/100
- State rank
- #350
- US rank
- #5823
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Panama City, FL
- County
- Bay County · 206,264 people
- City population
- 91,445
- Metro
- Panama City, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 18,947
- Household income
- $52,523
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 18% of renters
Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 206,264 people
- By 2030
- 217,740 · +5.6%
- By 2040
- 238,738 · +15.7%
- By 2050
- 255,545 · +23.9%
- By 2075
- 288,295 · +39.8%
- By 2100
- 288,638 · +39.9%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 60% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
- Common ancestry
- Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
- Foreign-born
- 9% · Canada, Vietnam
- Languages at home
- 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Bay
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -142.12%
- Current HPI
- 290.3312
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 0.45%
- Metro
- Panama City, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
||
| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
||
| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
|
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Price history
-2.4% since first listed2 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-22 Price Changed $204,000 CPARMLS
- 2026-05-02 Listed $209,000 CPARMLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…