1106 N Pierce St · Lexington, NE 68850

$130,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,612 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 180 Days on market

Built 1966 9,198 sqft lot $81/sqft · 33% below area Est $193k · 33% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the potential in this 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch-style home located in a quiet, established neighborhood. This spacious single-level layout offers two generous living areas, providing flexibility for relaxing, entertaining, or creating a dedicated home office. While the exterior needs some TLC, the solid floor plan and location make this property an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to add value with updates

Key facts

• Ranch-style home
• Solid floor plan
• 9,198 sq ft lot

Tags

• RANCH-STYLE HOME
• QUIET ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• TWO GENEROUS LIVING AREAS
• SOLID FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $199 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.6% in Lexington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#112 in NE, #4,483 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Lexington Public Schools (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #106 of 111 in NE (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 61 units permitted in Dawson County in 2024 (36 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dawson County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.57%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,684
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -32.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1112 N Fillmore St	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,529 (-5%)	11mo	$225,000	$147	77
405 E 12th St	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,675 (+4%)	2mo	$66,000	$39	77
1205 N Pierce St	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,741 (+8%)	8mo	$190,000	$109	75
504 E 5th St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-3%)	4mo	$150,000	$96	64
503 N Fillmore St	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,624 (+1%)	11mo	$200,000	$123	60
1109 E 4th St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,524 (-6%)	13mo	$279,900	$184	51
1113 E 4th St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,524 (-6%)	16mo	$279,900	$184	48
509 N Fillmore St	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,798 (+12%)	7mo	$130,000	$72	46
1302 N Madison St	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (-14%)	5mo	$162,500	$118	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-8,359
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $9,125
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68850

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,377 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,835/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,125

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1002 E 7th St Unit 14-1114 Lexington, NE	3.0	2.0	1360	$768	$0.56	43d	1	0.40mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $130,000 Pending 180 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 179 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 178 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $130,000 Active 177 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $130,000 Active 175 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on market $130,000 Active 173 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $145,000 Active 172 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $145,000 Active 171 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $145,000 Active 170 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 169 DOM
11. 2026-04-08
    price $145,000 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    Discover the potential in this 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch-style home located in a quiet, established neighborhood. This spacious single-level layout offers two generous living areas, providing flexibility for relaxing, entertaining, or creating a dedicated home office. While the exterior needs some TLC, the solid floor plan and location make this property an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to add value with updates

12. 2026-02-17
    price $155,000 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    Discover the potential in this 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch-style home located in a quiet, established neighborhood. This spacious single-level layout offers two generous living areas, providing flexibility for relaxing, entertaining, or creating a dedicated home office. While the exterior needs some TLC, the solid floor plan and location make this property an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to add value with updates

13. 2025-12-11
    listed $165,000 Active 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    Discover the potential in this 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch-style home located in a quiet, established neighborhood. This spacious single-level layout offers two generous living areas, providing flexibility for relaxing, entertaining, or creating a dedicated home office. While the exterior needs some TLC, the solid floor plan and location make this property an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to add value with updates

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,835 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,249 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$414/yr (+$34/mo · 22.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 9% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,528
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,835
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,322
• − Management: −$1,322
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $335
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$80
• After-tax cash flow: $2,311/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lexington Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3172810
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,799
• Composite: 26.54/100
• National rank: #7195
• State rank: #106 of 111 in NE

Livability — Lexington

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #4483

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington, NE
• County: Dawson County · 12,428 people
• City population: 12,428
• Metro: Lexington, NE
• Population (ZIP): 12,428
• Household income: $69,238
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Dawson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,318 people
• By 2030: 22,912 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 22,097 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 21,358 · -8.4%
• By 2075: 19,801 · -15.1%
• By 2100: 17,647 · -24.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 62% White 23% Two or more races 18% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada
• Languages at home: 35% English-only · Spanish 56% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dawson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.6) · D 24.7% · R 74.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -49.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.6 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+45.0 2012: R+41.8 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.28%
• Current HPI: 231.9947
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lexington, NE
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

-12.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $145,000 GMNMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $155,000 GMNMLS
• 2025-12-11 Listed $165,000 GMNMLS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,835 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.