1425 S Ozello Trl · Homosassa, FL 34429

$180,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 160 Days on market

Built 1979 8,866 sqft lot Est $276k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Waterfront Property with Major Potential on Ozello Trail! Whether you’re an investor, AirBnB/VRBO host, a second-home buyer, or a hands-on homeowner, this is an excellent opportunity to create something special in a sought-after waterfront location! Experience the timeless beauty of Old Florida with this three-bedroom, two-bathroom home situated directly on the canal along the picturesque Ozello Trail. This property has experienced flooding and will require restoration efforts to bring it back to life. It presents a unique opportunity for customization, allowing new owners to add personal touches and upgrades to suit their style. Offering 1,500 square feet of living space, this proper

Key facts

• Kayak access
• Private dock
• Paddleboard access

Tags

• WATERFRONT PROPERTY
• LARGE WRAPAROUND DECK
• PRIVATE DOCK
• BOATING ACCESS
• KAYAK ACCESS
• PADDLEBOARD ACCESS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Driveway; Private parking (2 total spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story; Faces west
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Built on a single level
• Exterior features: Deck; Cleared corner lot; Waterfront lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliances listed
• Bedrooms: Total of 8 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Tile flooring; No built-in appliances listed
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-175 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (17.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 1.8% in Homosassa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#749 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rock Crusher Elementary School (math 70% / reading 56%, grade B, #582 of 2,144 statewide, top 28%, 665 students, 68% FRL); Crystal River Middle School (math 49% / reading 47%, grade C-, #286 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 900 students, 64% FRL); Crystal River High School (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 1,249 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 327 active listings in the ZIP; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,056 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.99%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $276,000
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1425 S Ozello Trl	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (0%)	0mo	$180,000	$120	95
1400 S Estuary Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-13%)	21mo	$239,500	$184	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-40,094
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-48,342
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34429

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,773 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,562/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $-175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,994

Max offer price $149,056

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-73	-5% $-124	+0% $-175	+5% $-226	+10% $-277
Rent	-10% $-315	-5% $-245	+0% $-175	+5% $-105	+10% $-35
Rate	-1.0pp $-85	-0.5pp $-129	base $-175	+0.5pp $-222	+1.0pp $-269

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $180,000 Pending 160 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $180,000 Active 159 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $180,000 Active 158 DOM
4. 2026-05-04
   status Active
5. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
6. 2026-04-24
   status Active
7. 2026-04-24
   price $180,000
8. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
9. 2026-01-09
   price $200,000
10. 2025-12-15
    listed $224,900 Active
11. 2025-09-10
    historical
12. 2025-08-27
    price $224,900
13. 2025-08-27
    price $224,900
14. 2025-07-24
    listed $249,900 Active
15. 2024-12-24
    historical
16. 2024-12-12
    price $249,000
17. 2024-11-29
    price $259,000
18. 2024-11-22
    price $269,000
19. 2024-11-13
    listed $279,000 Active
20. 2022-04-20
    soldstatus $285,000
21. 2016-04-13
    soldstatus $180,000
22. 2008-11-18
    historical
23. 2008-05-11
    listed $297,500
24. 2005-05-25
    soldstatus $170,000
25. 2004-07-27
    soldstatus $130,000
26. 2000-10-03
    soldstatus $65,000
27. 1997-07-01
    soldstatus $52,000
28. 1985-06-01
    soldstatus $42,000
29. 1980-02-01
    soldstatus $28,000
30. 1977-08-01
    soldstatus $13,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,562 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,562 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,273
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$1,562
• − Insurance: −$6,018
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,702
• − Management: −$1,702
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$5,030
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,207
• After-tax cash flow: $-895/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Homosassa

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #749
• US rank: #16240

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 29,919
• Population (ZIP): 9,494

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.92%
• Current HPI: 271.3171
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1284.6% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Relisted — RACC
• 2026-05-04 Pending — RACC
• 2026-04-24 Relisted — RACC
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $180,000 RACC
• 2026-04-16 Pending — RACC
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $200,000 RACC
• 2025-12-15 Listed $224,900 RACC
• 2025-09-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $224,900 RACC
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $224,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-24 Listed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-24 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-12 Price Changed $249,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-29 Price Changed $259,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-22 Price Changed $269,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-13 Listed $279,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $285,000 Public Records
• 2016-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2008-11-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-05-11 Listed $297,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2004-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2000-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1997-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 1985-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 1980-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records
• 1977-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,562 · -43.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.