15737 Plum Brook Dr · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$210,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $36/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner's suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 5 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by SBB Community Management; Annual association fee of $432

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Single-story entry (all main rooms listed on the first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2026; Cement siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with island and breakfast bar; Pantry and walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 13); Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (approx. 10 x 11 and 10 x 10)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Pantry and walk-in pantry; Kitchen/dining combo; Six total rooms

🏗️ New construction. The $210,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $262,080.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $211k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-394 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Austin El (math 39% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 950 students, 81% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 34% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 721 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 11% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,962 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.44%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $262,080
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15683 Plum Brook Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,260 (0%)	4mo	$265,990	$211	97
15696 Plum Brook Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,260 (0%)	3mo	$261,990	$208	96
15674 Plum Brook Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,260 (0%)	5mo	$265,990	$211	95
15615 Plum Brook Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,306 (+4%)	5mo	$255,900	$196	87
16422 Blossom Grove Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,306 (+4%)	6mo	$264,900	$203	85
16434 Blossom Grove Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,306 (+4%)	7mo	$264,900	$203	84
16437 Blossom Grove Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,306 (+4%)	7mo	$261,900	$201	84
15814 Berry Hill Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,306 (+4%)	6mo	$264,900	$203	78
16426 Blossom Grove Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-15%)	6mo	$218,900	$203	67
15810 Berry Hill Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-15%)	2mo	$227,900	$212	64
15866 Berry Hill Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-15%)	1mo	$227,900	$212	63
16454 Blossom Grove Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-15%)	10mo	$224,900	$209	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-72,896
• Equity at exit: $39,077

10-year hold

• IRR: -54.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.59×
• Total profit: $-116,411
• Equity at exit: $22,660

Cash invested: $73,382 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,840 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,374
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$328 /mo · $3,931/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-394

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,338

Max offer price $205,085

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-213	-5% $-303	+0% $-394	+5% $-484	+10% $-575
Rent	-10% $-539	-5% $-467	+0% $-394	+5% $-321	+10% $-249
Rate	-1.0pp $-262	-0.5pp $-327	base $-394	+0.5pp $-462	+1.0pp $-531

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,520
• Closing costs: $7,862
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15648 Plum Brook Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1793	$1,930	$1.08	0d	1	0.02mi
15642 Plum Brook Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,610	$1.23	0d	1	0.02mi
15667 Plum Brook Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1793	$1,930	$1.08	0d	1	0.02mi
15663 Plum Brook Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,610	$1.23	0d	1	0.02mi
15793 Bayberry Trace Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1639	$1,705	$1.04	0d	1	0.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $210,990 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,990 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 463-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $210,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,075
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,681
• − Property taxes: −$3,931
• − Insurance: −$1,310
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,766
• − Management: −$1,766
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$7,624
• Taxable loss: −$9,435
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,264
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,462/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and is move-in ready with minor updates that can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Updating the flooring to a more modern style — Modern flooring can improve both resale and rental value
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances to more energy-efficient models — Energy-efficient appliances can reduce utility costs and appeal to buyers
• Both Adding smart home features to the HVAC system — Smart home features can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting both buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Updating the flooring to a more modern style — Modern flooring can improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances to more energy-efficient models — Energy-efficient appliances can reduce utility costs and appeal to buyers ↑
• Both Adding smart home features to the HVAC system — Smart home features can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting both buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $189,991 Zillow
• 2026-06-16 Listed $210,990 HARMLS