1306 Berry Brook Dr · Sienna, TX 77459

$619,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,116 sqft · Land · 235 Days on market

Built 2025 8,760 sqft lot $199/sqft · 5% below area Est $653k · 5% under $124/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-Car Garage, Flex Room, French doors at Study, Laundry Access thru Primary Walk-In Closet, Extended Outdoor Living, Built-in Valet Bench at Garage Entry, Fireplace at Great Room, Bay Window at Primary Suite, Stacked Kitchen Cabinets, Stacking Slider Door at Great Room, Tray Ceilings, Walk-In Pantry

Key facts

• Large flex room
• Open concept
• Modern design

Tags

• MODERN DESIGN
• OPEN CONCEPT
• LARGE FLEX ROOM
• LARGE COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $620k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $392 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $531k (14.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $531k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL); Ridge Point H S (math 61% / reading 69%, grade B, #198 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 3,170 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 35% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1229 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,309/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($129k/yr) (locally 1004% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($546k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $530,854 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.71%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $653,424
• List price: $619,990
• Delta: -5.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-55,911
• Equity at exit: $130,030

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-45,447
• Equity at exit: $120,439

Cash invested: $173,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1229
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,309 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,251
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,012/yr
• Insurance: −$258
• HOA: −$124
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,115
• Net cashflow: $392

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,812

Max offer price $619,990

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $743	-5% $568	+0% $392	+5% $217	+10% $41
Rent	-10% $-27	-5% $183	+0% $392	+5% $602	+10% $812
Rate	-1.0pp $705	-0.5pp $550	base $392	+0.5pp $232	+1.0pp $68

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $154,998
• Closing costs: $18,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9006 Meadow Bridge Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	3958	$6,580	$1.66	4d	1	0.88mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	23d	1	1.06mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	0d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $124 · $1,488/yr

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $619,990 Active 235 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $619,990 Active 232 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $619,990 Active 231 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $619,990 Active 230 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $619,990 Active 229 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $619,990 Active 227 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $619,990 Active 223 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $619,990 Active 221 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $619,990 Active 218 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $619,990 Active 217 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $619,990 Active 216 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $619,990 Active 215 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $619,990 Active 214 DOM
14. 2026-04-14
    price $619,990 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    3-Car Garage, Flex Room, French doors at Study, Laundry Access thru Primary Walk-In Closet, Extended Outdoor Living, Built-in Valet Bench at Garage Entry, Fireplace at Great Room, Bay Window at Primary Suite, Stacked Kitchen Cabinets, Stacking Slider Door at Great Room, Tray Ceilings, Walk-In Pantry

15. 2026-04-10
    price $619,010 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    3-Car Garage, Flex Room, French doors at Study, Laundry Access thru Primary Walk-In Closet, Extended Outdoor Living, Built-in Valet Bench at Garage Entry, Fireplace at Great Room, Bay Window at Primary Suite, Stacked Kitchen Cabinets, Stacking Slider Door at Great Room, Tray Ceilings, Walk-In Pantry

16. 2026-04-07
    price $619,990 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    3-Car Garage, Flex Room, French doors at Study, Laundry Access thru Primary Walk-In Closet, Extended Outdoor Living, Built-in Valet Bench at Garage Entry, Fireplace at Great Room, Bay Window at Primary Suite, Stacked Kitchen Cabinets, Stacking Slider Door at Great Room, Tray Ceilings, Walk-In Pantry

17. 2026-04-05
    price $620,070 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    3-Car Garage, Flex Room, French doors at Study, Laundry Access thru Primary Walk-In Closet, Extended Outdoor Living, Built-in Valet Bench at Garage Entry, Fireplace at Great Room, Bay Window at Primary Suite, Stacked Kitchen Cabinets, Stacking Slider Door at Great Room, Tray Ceilings, Walk-In Pantry

18. 2026-03-12
    price $619,990 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    3-Car Garage, Flex Room, French doors at Study, Laundry Access thru Primary Walk-In Closet, Extended Outdoor Living, Built-in Valet Bench at Garage Entry, Fireplace at Great Room, Bay Window at Primary Suite, Stacked Kitchen Cabinets, Stacking Slider Door at Great Room, Tray Ceilings, Walk-In Pantry

19. 2026-03-07
    price $620,520 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    3-Car Garage, Flex Room, French doors at Study, Laundry Access thru Primary Walk-In Closet, Extended Outdoor Living, Built-in Valet Bench at Garage Entry, Fireplace at Great Room, Bay Window at Primary Suite, Stacked Kitchen Cabinets, Stacking Slider Door at Great Room, Tray Ceilings, Walk-In Pantry

20. 2026-01-27
    price $619,990 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    3-Car Garage, Flex Room, French doors at Study, Laundry Access thru Primary Walk-In Closet, Extended Outdoor Living, Built-in Valet Bench at Garage Entry, Fireplace at Great Room, Bay Window at Primary Suite, Stacked Kitchen Cabinets, Stacking Slider Door at Great Room, Tray Ceilings, Walk-In Pantry

21. 2026-01-24
    price $620,140 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    3-Car Garage, Flex Room, French doors at Study, Laundry Access thru Primary Walk-In Closet, Extended Outdoor Living, Built-in Valet Bench at Garage Entry, Fireplace at Great Room, Bay Window at Primary Suite, Stacked Kitchen Cabinets, Stacking Slider Door at Great Room, Tray Ceilings, Walk-In Pantry

22. 2026-01-13
    price $619,990 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    3-Car Garage, Flex Room, French doors at Study, Laundry Access thru Primary Walk-In Closet, Extended Outdoor Living, Built-in Valet Bench at Garage Entry, Fireplace at Great Room, Bay Window at Primary Suite, Stacked Kitchen Cabinets, Stacking Slider Door at Great Room, Tray Ceilings, Walk-In Pantry

23. 2025-12-27
    price $620,190 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    3-Car Garage, Flex Room, French doors at Study, Laundry Access thru Primary Walk-In Closet, Extended Outdoor Living, Built-in Valet Bench at Garage Entry, Fireplace at Great Room, Bay Window at Primary Suite, Stacked Kitchen Cabinets, Stacking Slider Door at Great Room, Tray Ceilings, Walk-In Pantry

24. 2025-12-19
    price $619,990 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    3-Car Garage, Flex Room, French doors at Study, Laundry Access thru Primary Walk-In Closet, Extended Outdoor Living, Built-in Valet Bench at Garage Entry, Fireplace at Great Room, Bay Window at Primary Suite, Stacked Kitchen Cabinets, Stacking Slider Door at Great Room, Tray Ceilings, Walk-In Pantry

25. 2025-12-18
    price $619,990 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    Spacious 1-story home with 3-car garage, modern design. Features four bedrooms and 3 1/2 baths. Open concept, casual dining, large flex room, plus study. The kitchen is a cook's delight with double ovens and a large quartz island. Large covered patio.

26. 2025-12-16
    price $624,990 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    3-Car Garage, Flex Room, French doors at Study, Laundry Access thru Primary Walk-In Closet, Extended Outdoor Living, Built-in Valet Bench at Garage Entry, Fireplace at Great Room, Bay Window at Primary Suite, Stacked Kitchen Cabinets, Stacking Slider Door at Great Room, Tray Ceilings, Walk-In Pantry

27. 2025-11-21
    price $619,990 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    3-Car Garage, Flex Room, French doors at Study, Laundry Access thru Primary Walk-In Closet, Extended Outdoor Living, Built-in Valet Bench at Garage Entry, Fireplace at Great Room, Bay Window at Primary Suite, Stacked Kitchen Cabinets, Stacking Slider Door at Great Room, Tray Ceilings, Walk-In Pantry

28. 2025-11-06
    price $637,599 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    3-Car Garage, Flex Room, French doors at Study, Laundry Access thru Primary Walk-In Closet, Extended Outdoor Living, Built-in Valet Bench at Garage Entry, Fireplace at Great Room, Bay Window at Primary Suite, Stacked Kitchen Cabinets, Stacking Slider Door at Great Room, Tray Ceilings, Walk-In Pantry

29. 2025-11-04
    listed $638,299 Active 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    3-Car Garage, Flex Room, French doors at Study, Laundry Access thru Primary Walk-In Closet, Extended Outdoor Living, Built-in Valet Bench at Garage Entry, Fireplace at Great Room, Bay Window at Primary Suite, Stacked Kitchen Cabinets, Stacking Slider Door at Great Room, Tray Ceilings, Walk-In Pantry

30. 2025-10-29
    listed $638,299 Active 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    Spacious 1-story home with 3-car garage, modern design. Features four bedrooms and 3 1/2 baths. Open concept, casual dining, large flex room, plus study. The kitchen is a cook's delight with double ovens and a large quartz island. Large covered patio.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,012 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,346 · $945/mo
• Expected delta: +$9,334/yr (+$778/mo · 463.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,702
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,729
• − Property taxes: −$2,012
• − Insurance: −$3,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,096
• − Management: −$5,096
• − HOA: −$1,488
• − Depreciation: −$18,036
• Taxable loss: −$5,855
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,405
• After-tax cash flow: $6,115/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $619,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $619,010 Zillow
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $619,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-05 Price Changed $620,070 Zillow
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $619,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $620,520 Zillow
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $619,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $620,140 Zillow
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $619,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-27 Price Changed $620,190 Zillow
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $619,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $619,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $624,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $619,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $637,599 Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Listed $638,299 Zillow
• 2025-10-29 Listed $638,299 HARMLS