3112 Loubelia Ln · Bonifay, FL 32425

$139,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 151 Days on market

Built 2002 2.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience the charm of country living with the roomy 3-bedroom, 2-bath doublewide mobile home. As you walk through the front door you will see the expansive living room, dining area with views of the back porch and yard, lots of kitchen cabinets and a cozy breakfast area. With a split bedroom plan the generous master bedroom features an ensuite bathroom with a shower and a double sink vanity. The two extra bedrooms are large and has large closets. The outside features some chain-link fencing that encloses part of the front yard and the backyard. With two acres you have plenty of room for your dog etc to run around. The property has paved road frontage.

Key facts

• Cozy breakfast area
• Dining area
• Split bedroom plan

Tags

• EXPANSIVE LIVING ROOM
• DINING AREA
• COZY BREAKFAST AREA
• SPLIT BEDROOM PLAN
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• DOUBLE SINK VANITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $144 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.8% in Bonifay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#577 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Washington (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #45 of 73 in FL (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Washington County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $109k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.45%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $84,849
• Equity at exit: $125,222

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.23×
• Total profit: $242,532
• Equity at exit: $270,046

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32425

• Home prices YoY: 16.2%
• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,254 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $713/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,071

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 661-char remark

   Show marketing remark (661 chars)

   Experience the charm of country living with the roomy 3-bedroom, 2-bath doublewide mobile home. As you walk through the front door you will see the expansive living room, dining area with views of the back porch and yard, lots of kitchen cabinets and a cozy breakfast area. With a split bedroom plan the generous master bedroom features an ensuite bathroom with a shower and a double sink vanity. The two extra bedrooms are large and has large closets. The outside features some chain-link fencing that encloses part of the front yard and the backyard. With two acres you have plenty of room for your dog etc to run around. The property has paved road frontage.

2. 2026-05-13
   status Active 661-char remark

   Show marketing remark (661 chars)

   Experience the charm of country living with the roomy 3-bedroom, 2-bath doublewide mobile home. As you walk through the front door you will see the expansive living room, dining area with views of the back porch and yard, lots of kitchen cabinets and a cozy breakfast area. With a split bedroom plan the generous master bedroom features an ensuite bathroom with a shower and a double sink vanity. The two extra bedrooms are large and has large closets. The outside features some chain-link fencing that encloses part of the front yard and the backyard. With two acres you have plenty of room for your dog etc to run around. The property has paved road frontage.

3. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 661-char remark

   Show marketing remark (661 chars)

   Experience the charm of country living with the roomy 3-bedroom, 2-bath doublewide mobile home. As you walk through the front door you will see the expansive living room, dining area with views of the back porch and yard, lots of kitchen cabinets and a cozy breakfast area. With a split bedroom plan the generous master bedroom features an ensuite bathroom with a shower and a double sink vanity. The two extra bedrooms are large and has large closets. The outside features some chain-link fencing that encloses part of the front yard and the backyard. With two acres you have plenty of room for your dog etc to run around. The property has paved road frontage.

4. 2026-03-12
   price $139,000 661-char remark

   Show marketing remark (661 chars)

   Experience the charm of country living with the roomy 3-bedroom, 2-bath doublewide mobile home. As you walk through the front door you will see the expansive living room, dining area with views of the back porch and yard, lots of kitchen cabinets and a cozy breakfast area. With a split bedroom plan the generous master bedroom features an ensuite bathroom with a shower and a double sink vanity. The two extra bedrooms are large and has large closets. The outside features some chain-link fencing that encloses part of the front yard and the backyard. With two acres you have plenty of room for your dog etc to run around. The property has paved road frontage.

5. 2026-01-30
   price $149,000 661-char remark

   Show marketing remark (661 chars)

   Experience the charm of country living with the roomy 3-bedroom, 2-bath doublewide mobile home. As you walk through the front door you will see the expansive living room, dining area with views of the back porch and yard, lots of kitchen cabinets and a cozy breakfast area. With a split bedroom plan the generous master bedroom features an ensuite bathroom with a shower and a double sink vanity. The two extra bedrooms are large and has large closets. The outside features some chain-link fencing that encloses part of the front yard and the backyard. With two acres you have plenty of room for your dog etc to run around. The property has paved road frontage.

6. 2025-12-10
   listed $159,900 Active 661-char remark

   Show marketing remark (661 chars)

   Experience the charm of country living with the roomy 3-bedroom, 2-bath doublewide mobile home. As you walk through the front door you will see the expansive living room, dining area with views of the back porch and yard, lots of kitchen cabinets and a cozy breakfast area. With a split bedroom plan the generous master bedroom features an ensuite bathroom with a shower and a double sink vanity. The two extra bedrooms are large and has large closets. The outside features some chain-link fencing that encloses part of the front yard and the backyard. With two acres you have plenty of room for your dog etc to run around. The property has paved road frontage.

7. 2025-04-30
   historical
8. 2025-03-28
   price $162,000
9. 2025-03-21
   price $164,000
10. 2025-02-26
    price $169,000
11. 2025-02-17
    listed $184,000 Active
12. 2023-03-12
    historical
13. 2023-01-02
    price $159,900
14. 2023-01-02
    price $159,900
15. 2023-01-02
    status Active
16. 2023-01-02
    status Active
17. 2022-12-30
    status Pending
18. 2022-12-30
    status Pending
19. 2022-12-30
    historical
20. 2022-11-22
    status Active
21. 2022-11-22
    status Active
22. 2022-11-21
    historical
23. 2022-11-21
    historical
24. 2022-11-12
    price $169,900
25. 2022-11-12
    price $169,900
26. 2022-09-26
    price $174,900
27. 2022-09-26
    price $174,900
28. 2022-08-31
    price $179,000
29. 2022-08-31
    price $179,000
30. 2022-07-06
    status Active
31. 2022-07-06
    status Active
32. 2022-06-28
    historical
33. 2022-06-28
    listed $189,000 Active
34. 2022-06-28
    historical
35. 2022-06-21
    listed $189,000 Active
36. 2021-02-25
    soldstatus $109,000
37. 2020-05-28
    listed $109,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $713 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,154 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$441/yr (+$37/mo · 61.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,048
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$713
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,204
• − Management: −$1,204
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$597
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$143
• After-tax cash flow: $1,876/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Washington
• NCES district ID: 1202010
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $36,948
• Composite: 41.12/100
• National rank: #3561
• State rank: #45 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bonifay

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #577
• US rank: #10976

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,944

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,087 people
• By 2030: 23,600 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 22,643 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 21,524 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 18,432 · -23.5%
• By 2100: 13,298 · -44.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 9% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.4) · D 17.0% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: -47.8pp · 2024: -65.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.4 2020: R+61.1 2016: R+57.1 2012: R+47.4 2008: R+47.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 44.87%
• Current HPI: 322.29
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+27.5% since first listed

37 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $139,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $149,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listed $159,900 CPARMLS
• 2025-04-30 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2025-03-28 Price Changed $162,000 MARMLS
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $164,000 MARMLS
• 2025-02-26 Price Changed $169,000 MARMLS
• 2025-02-17 Listed $184,000 MARMLS
• 2023-03-12 Delisted — ECAR
• 2023-01-02 Price Changed $159,900 ECAR
• 2023-01-02 Price Changed $159,900 NAMLS
• 2023-01-02 Relisted — ECAR
• 2023-01-02 Relisted — NAMLS
• 2022-12-30 Pending — NAMLS
• 2022-12-30 Pending — ECAR
• 2022-12-30 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2022-11-22 Relisted — NAMLS
• 2022-11-22 Relisted — ECAR
• 2022-11-21 Delisted — ECAR
• 2022-11-21 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2022-11-12 Price Changed $169,900 ECAR
• 2022-11-12 Price Changed $169,900 NAMLS
• 2022-09-26 Price Changed $174,900 ECAR
• 2022-09-26 Price Changed $174,900 NAMLS
• 2022-08-31 Price Changed $179,000 ECAR
• 2022-08-31 Price Changed $179,000 NAMLS
• 2022-07-06 Relisted — ECAR
• 2022-07-06 Relisted — NAMLS
• 2022-06-28 Delisted — ECAR
• 2022-06-28 Listed $189,000 ECAR
• 2022-06-28 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2022-06-21 Listed $189,000 NAMLS
• 2021-02-25 Sold (MLS) $109,000 CPARMLS
• 2020-05-28 Listed $109,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+20.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $713 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.