82403 New Circle Dr N · Pinellas Park, FL 33781

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 864 sqft · Manufactured public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1982 4,000 sqft lot Est $102k · 23% over $220/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into your new home in the highly desirable 55+ Golden Gate Mobile Home Park, a resident-owned community in the heart of Pinellas Park! This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfort, convenience, and the perfect layout for relaxed Florida living. Enjoy your morning coffee or peaceful evening in the screened-in patio, your space to unwind or entertain. The home features a spacious two-car carport with two outdoor storage closets, giving you plenty of room for tools, beach gear, and seasonal items! Out back, you’ll find a concrete patio ready for grilling, outdoor seating, or creating your own backyard retreat. Residents of Golden Gate enjoy access to a community pool and hot tub and a

Key facts

• Community pool
• Screened-in patio
• Two-car carport

Tags

• SCREENED-IN PATIO
• TWO-CAR CARPORT
• OUTDOOR STORAGE CLOSETS
• CONCRETE PATIO
• COMMUNITY POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total annual fees $2,640
• HOA & community: Golden Gate Resident's Association; Monthly HOA fee of $220 (includes pool); Community pool; Senior community; Pet restrictions apply (size and number limits, max pet weight 20 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered driveway; 2-space carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available
• Home design: Residential manufactured home (double wide); Single-story; Faces north
• Construction: Metal frame construction; Membrane and metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a 0.09-acre lot
• Exterior features: Front porch; Patio; Screened porch; Exterior lighting; Private mailbox; Sidewalk; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Shutters
• Laundry & utility: Outdoor laundry area; Storage rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $406 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 4.0% in Pinellas Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#170 in FL, #2,546 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pinellas Park Elementary School (math 43% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,454 of 2,144 statewide, top 69%, 452 students, 74% FRL); Pinellas Park High School (math 28% / reading 35%, grade F, #424 of 667 statewide, top 64%, 1,919 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 48% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pinellas average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 226 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $125k implies a 386% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.91%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $101,952
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
82015 A St N #15	0.05mi	2/2.0	915 (+6%)	6mo	$108,000	$118	83
34076 Avocado Dr N	0.40mi	2/1.5	872 (+1%)	5mo	$88,000	$101	74
34041 Azalea Dr N	0.40mi	2/2.0	882 (+2%)	11mo	$80,000	$91	68
34175 Canal Dr	0.40mi	2/2.0	954 (+10%)	2mo	$117,500	$123	62
82264 2nd Ave N #264	0.16mi	2/1.0	768 (-11%)	15mo	$130,000	$169	58
34440 Oleander Dr N	0.51mi	1/1.0 (-1)	802 (-7%)	7mo	$74,000	$92	50
34122 Oak Dr N	0.49mi	2/2.0	740 (-14%)	20mo	$120,000	$162	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $222
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $12,766
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33781

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 226
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,887 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,889/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$220
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $406

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,373

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8851 US Highway 19 N Pinellas Park, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,295	$2.31	2d	23	0.34mi
4355 84th Ave N Pinellas Park, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,550	$2.21	2d	10	0.38mi
4071 76th Ave N Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,724	$2.46	3d	3	0.53mi
4701 88th Ave N Pinellas Park, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	855	$1,853	$2.17	10d	20	0.69mi
3110 Grand Ave Pinellas Park, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,467	$2.23	1d	34	0.72mi
4520 76th Ave N Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,545	$2.21	24d	1	0.75mi
4771 78th Ave N Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	2.0	903	$1,640	$1.82	23d	1	0.79mi
4940 87th Ave Unit C Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$2,600	$3.71	24d	1	0.87mi
8400 49th St N Pinellas Park, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	707	$1,749	$2.47	1d	22	0.87mi
4675 72nd Ave N Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,649	$2.20	21d	1	1.01mi
4973 91st Ave Unit 12 (C) Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	2.0	875	$1,475	$1.69	14d	1	1.01mi
4973 91st Ave Unit C Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	2.0	875	$1,475	$1.69	14d	1	1.01mi
9505 49th St N Pinellas Park, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$2,297	$2.19	2d	19	1.02mi
2790 Grand Ave Saint Petersburg, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$2,782	$2.73	1d	16	1.03mi
5060 76th Ave N #409 Pinellas Park, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	21d	1	1.13mi
7050 48th St N Pinellas Park, FL	3.0	1.5	1008	$2,350	$2.33	24d	1	1.15mi
3715 66th Ave N Unit B Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,475	$1.97	21d	1	1.16mi
9911 Dahlia St #38 Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,300	$1.53	7d	1	1.30mi
8311 56th Way Unit 2 Pinellas Park, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$2,200	$2.93	24d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $220 · $2,640/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 107 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $125,000 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 101 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-05-07
    price $125,000
14. 2026-02-20
    listed $130,000 Active
15. 1999-02-01
    soldstatus $25,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,889 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,889 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,889
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,812
• − Management: −$1,812
• − HOA: −$2,640
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $3,229
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$775
• After-tax cash flow: $4,094/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pinellas Park

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #170
• US rank: #2546

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pinellas Park, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 50,533
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,072
• Household income: $57,785
• Rent vs Own: 35.6% rent · 64.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1115.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 14% Two or more races 11% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 12% Vietnamese 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -409.77%
• Current HPI: 348.546
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.95%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+386.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Listed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $25,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,889 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.