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18651 Buckskin Dr 🏗️ New Construction
D+ Composite 45.91
Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +13.5/30.0
  • ARV discount +7.5/15.0
  • Schools +6.9/10.0
  • Condition / age +5.0/5.0
  • DSCR +4.1/10.0
  • Livability +4.0/5.0
  • 1% rule +3.8/10.0
  • Rent growth +1.2/5.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$310,000

18651 Buckskin Dr · Bradenton, FL 34211
3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,464 sqft · Townhouse · 107 Days on market
Built 2026 Excellent condition 2,200 sqft lot Garage $257/mo HOA · 9% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

This townhome features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage, all in a spacious 1,464 sq. ft. area. As you enter the home, you will find a foyer as well as a powder room. Beyond that is the open-concept kitchen and living area, which includes countertop seating and ample space for a dining table. Upstairs, you'll find the primary bedroom with a walk-in closet and an en suite bathroom featuring a double-bowl vanity. You'll also find two additional bedrooms available, each with ample closet space. The hallway conveniently houses another full bathroom and an upstairs laundry room. Discover why the Pearson Townhome will be the perfect fit for your next move!

Key facts

  • Double-bowl vanity
  • Quartz countertops
  • Open-concept kitchen

Tags

OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHENWALK-IN CLOSETDOUBLE-BOWL VANITYUPSTAIRS LAUNDRY ROOMLUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORINGQUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
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🏗️ New construction. The $310,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $313,995.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $310k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $9 ($108/yr) — positive.
  • The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (11.2% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $275k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
  • Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.5% in Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 81/100 on livability (#101 in FL, #1,528 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
  • Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: B.D. Gullett Elementary School (math 78% / reading 73%, grade A, #211 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,121 students, 20% FRL); R. Dan Nolan Middle School (math 79% / reading 72%, grade A, #38 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 760 students, 28% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 51% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
  • Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
  • Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 1553 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 88d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Recommended offer $275,323 (11.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
  6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.88%
Cap rate
6.33%
Cash-on-cash
0.12%
DSCR
1.01
GRM
9.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$313,995
List price
$310,000
Delta
-0.32%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
18548 Buckskin Dr 0.07mi 3/2.5 1,464 (0%) 0mo $306,500 $209 96
18602 Buckskin Dr 0.06mi 3/2.5 1,464 (0%) 1mo $304,000 $208 96
18556 Buckskin Dr 0.07mi 3/2.5 1,464 (0%) 1mo $309,000 $211 96
18610 Buckskin Dr 0.06mi 3/2.5 1,464 (0%) 2mo $349,000 $238 96
18552 Buckskin Dr 0.07mi 3/2.5 1,464 (0%) 2mo $315,000 $215 95
18614 Buckskin Dr 0.05mi 3/2.5 1,463 (-0%) 3mo $325,000 $222 95
2629 Fetlock Run 0.07mi 3/2.5 1,464 (0%) 4mo $315,000 $215 94
2621 Fetlock Run 0.07mi 3/2.5 1,464 (0%) 4mo $319,000 $218 93
2617 Fetlock Run 0.07mi 3/2.5 1,464 (0%) 4mo $312,000 $213 93
2613 Fetlock Run 0.08mi 3/2.5 1,464 (0%) 4mo $312,000 $213 93
18544 Buckskin Dr 0.08mi 3/2.5 1,463 (-0%) 4mo $334,000 $228 93
2625 Fetlock Run 0.07mi 3/2.5 1,464 (0%) 5mo $310,000 $212 93

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-19.5%
Equity multiple
0.34×
Total profit
$-58,335
Equity at exit
$46,818
10-year hold
IRR
-20.3%
Equity multiple
0.08×
Total profit
$-81,079
Equity at exit
$27,149

Cash invested: $87,919 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
21 active · 8 under contract
Months of supply
6.3 mo (16%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$310,000 ($211/sqft)
Median days on market
112 d
This list price
43% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+1.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34211

Home prices YoY
-27.5%
Rents YoY
-5.2%
Active inventory
1553
Price-to-rent
9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,753 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,647
Tax from tax record
$132 /mo · $1,579/yr
Insurance
$131
HOA
$257
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$578
Net cashflow
$9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,742
Max offer price $313,995
Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $187 -5% $98 +0% $9 +5% $-80 +10% $-169
Rent -10% $-208 -5% $-100 +0% $9 +5% $118 +10% $227
Rate -1.0pp $167 -0.5pp $89 base $9 +0.5pp $-72 +1.0pp $-155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$78,499
Closing costs
$9,420
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 21 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
2617 Fetlock Run Unit 2617 Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.5 1464 $2,350 $1.61 111d 1 0.08mi
18524 Buckskin Dr Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.5 1464 $2,300 $1.57 119d 1 0.13mi
18143 Wheathouse Pl Bradenton, FL 4.0 2.0 1828 $3,300 $1.81 119d 1 0.42mi
18047 Cropside Trl Lakewood Ranch, FL 3.0 2.0 1565 $2,899 $1.85 2d 1 0.70mi
19910 Florida 64 Fl -64 Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 1456 $2,800 $1.92 9d 1 0.72mi
17624 Crescent Moon Loop Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.5 1784 $2,950 $1.65 119d 1 0.77mi
17649 Crescent Moon Loop Bradenton, FL 3.0 3.0 1673 $2,749 $1.64 119d 1 0.79mi
17550 Crescent Moon Loop Lakewood Ranch, FL 3.0 2.5 1661 $2,500 $1.51 2d 1 0.83mi
17769 Crescent Moon Loop Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.5 1561 $2,600 $1.67 88d 1 0.85mi
17777 Crescent Moon Loop Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.5 1464 $2,300 $1.57 117d 1 0.85mi
18123 Gulf Ranch Pl Lakewood Ranch, FL 3.0 2.0 1844 $4,250 $2.30 2d 1 0.87mi
3222 Bitterroot Ln Bradenton, FL 4.0 2.0 1665 $3,000 $1.80 119d 1 0.93mi
2725 Georgina CIR Lakewood Ranch, FL 3.0–4.0 2.5–3.5 2094 $2,549 $1.22 0d 42 1.11mi
2206 Washington Palm Ct Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.5 1800 $2,800 $1.56 77d 1 1.16mi
16929 Yard Spring Dr Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.0 1504 $2,700 $1.80 99d 1 1.25mi
17903 Cherished Loop Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1672 $2,800 $1.67 119d 1 1.30mi
17929 Cherished Loop Lakewood Ranch, FL 2.0 2.0 1432 $2,800 $1.96 0d 1 1.33mi
17918 Cherished Loop Bradenton, FL 2.0 2.0 1452 $3,000 $2.07 119d 1 1.34mi
3109 Novara Ln Lakewood Ranch, FL 3.0 3.0 1373 $2,199 $1.60 2d 1 1.42mi
16656 Bergamo Pl Bradenton, FL 3.0 2.5 1553 $2,300 $1.48 9d 1 1.44mi
16620 Bergamo Pl Lakewood Ranch, FL 3.0 2.5 1373 $3,800 $2.77 2d 1 1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Home warranty included
Financial info
Total monthly fees $257; total annual fees $3,084Lease restrictions apply
HOA & community
HOA managed by Access ManagementMonthly HOA fee $257 (covers maintenance of grounds)Association approval requiredCommunity clubhouseCommunity amenities: fitness center, pool, tennis courtsPets allowed

Exterior

Parking
Attached garage (1 car) — approximately 10 x 20
Utilities
Public sewerPublic water: None specifiedUnderground utilities
Home design
Residential townhouseUnder construction (projected completion September 11, 2026)Two levelsSouthwest facingEntry on slab foundation
Construction
New constructionBlock, stone and stucco constructionShingle roofBuilt by D.R. Horton (model: PEARSON)Slab foundation
Exterior features
PatioPond viewPaved road access

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRangeRefrigeratorElectric water heater
Bedrooms
3 bedrooms
Flooring
Carpet
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling
Electric heatingHeat pumpCentral air conditioning
Interior features
Kitchen/family room comboLiving room/dining room comboOpen floorplanSliding doorsHurricane shutters
Laundry & utility
Laundry roomWasherDryer

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-24
    pricedays on market $310,000 Active 107 DOM
  2. 2026-09-22
    days on market $312,990 Active 105 DOM
  3. 2026-09-21
    days on market $312,990 Active 104 DOM
  4. 2026-09-20
    days on market $312,990 Active 103 DOM
  5. 2026-09-19
    days on market $312,990 Active 102 DOM
  6. 2026-09-18
    days on market $312,990 Active 101 DOM
  7. 2026-09-17
    days on market $312,990 Active 100 DOM
  8. 2026-09-16
    days on market $312,990 Active 99 DOM
  9. 2026-09-15
    days on market $312,990 Active 98 DOM
  10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $312,990 Active 97 DOM
  11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $312,990 Active 96 DOM
  12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $312,990 Active 95 DOM
  13. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $312,990 Active 94 DOM
  14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $322,990 Active 88 DOM
  15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $322,990 Active 87 DOM
  16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $322,990 Active 86 DOM
  17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $322,990 Active 83 DOM
  18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $322,990 Active 82 DOM
  19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $322,990 Active 81 DOM
  20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $322,990 Active 80 DOM
  21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $322,990 Active 79 DOM
  22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $322,990 Active 78 DOM
  23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $322,990 Active 77 DOM
  24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $322,990 Active 76 DOM
  25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $322,990 Active 75 DOM
  26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $322,990 Active 74 DOM
  27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $322,990 Active 73 DOM
  28. 2026-08-20
    price $322,990 Active 72 DOM
  29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $334,990 Active 72 DOM
  30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $334,990 Active 71 DOM
  31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $334,990 Active 70 DOM
  32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $334,990 Active 69 DOM
  33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $334,990 Active 68 DOM
  34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $334,990 Active 67 DOM
  35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $334,990 Active 66 DOM
  36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $334,990 Active 65 DOM
  37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $334,990 Active 64 DOM
  38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $334,990 Active 63 DOM
  39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $334,990 Active 62 DOM
  40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $334,990 Active 61 DOM
  41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $334,990 Active 60 DOM
  42. 2026-08-07
    days on market $334,990 Active 59 DOM
  43. 2026-08-06
    days on market $334,990 Active 58 DOM
  44. 2026-08-05
    days on market $334,990 Active 57 DOM
  45. 2026-08-04
    days on market $334,990 Active 56 DOM
  46. 2026-08-03
    days on market $334,990 Active 55 DOM
  47. 2026-07-31
    days on market $334,990 Active 52 DOM
  48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $334,990 Active 50 DOM
  49. 2026-07-28
    days on market $334,990 Active 49 DOM
  50. 2026-07-26
    days on market $334,990 Active 47 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$1,579 · $132/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$2,573 · $214/mo
Expected delta
+$994/yr (+$83/mo · 63.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$33,039
− Mortgage interest
−$17,589
− Property taxes
−$1,579
− Insurance
−$1,570
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,643
− Management
−$2,643
− HOA
−$3,084
− Depreciation
−$9,134
Taxable loss
−$5,203
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$1,249
After-tax cash flow
$1,357/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This newly constructed townhouse is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a great opportunity for investors looking to maximize both resale and rental value through minor cosmetic improvements.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value
  • Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters
C Composite school gradezoned avg 69/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary B.d. Gullett Elementary School A FL #211/2,144 Nat'l #2,011/41,679 Middle R. Dan Nolan Middle School A FL #38/571 Nat'l #472/14,009 High Lakewood Ranch High School C FL #135/667 Nat'l #4,413/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Manatee
NCES district ID
1201230
Math proficiency
54% ▼ -6.00%
Reading proficiency
50% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income
$49,607
Composite
44.43/100
National rank
#2806
State rank
#26 of 73 in FL
A Composite livability gradescore 81/100

Livability — Bradenton

Score
81/100
State rank
#101
US rank
#1528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County
Manatee County · 447,342 people
City population
52,177
Metro
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
Population (ZIP)
24,980
Household income
$119,911
Rent vs Own
21.7% rent · 78.3% own
Severe rent burden
10% of renters

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
447,342 people
By 2030
488,911 · +9.3%
By 2040
567,934 · +27.0%
By 2050
637,995 · +42.6%
By 2075
781,970 · +74.8%
By 2100
848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (81%)
Race & ethnicity
White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 2% Native American 2%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
Foreign-born
16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
Languages at home
81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

2024 margin
Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
2008→2024 swing
-16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
All cycles
2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

+0.0% since first listed
2 events — show timeline
  • 2026-06-10 Listed $334,990 Zillow
  • 2026-06-09 Listed $334,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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