🏗️ New Construction
18651 Buckskin Dr · Bradenton, FL
Flood risk No data
- FEMA flood zone
- —
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- —
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- —
Fire risk No data
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- —
Heat risk No data
- Hot days now (above threshold)
- —
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- —
Wind risk No data
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk No data
- Unhealthy air days now
- —
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- —
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +13.5/30.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Schools +6.9/10.0
- Condition / age +5.0/5.0
- DSCR +4.1/10.0
- Livability +4.0/5.0
- 1% rule +3.8/10.0
- Rent growth +1.2/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$310,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
This townhome features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage, all in a spacious 1,464 sq. ft. area. As you enter the home, you will find a foyer as well as a powder room. Beyond that is the open-concept kitchen and living area, which includes countertop seating and ample space for a dining table. Upstairs, you'll find the primary bedroom with a walk-in closet and an en suite bathroom featuring a double-bowl vanity. You'll also find two additional bedrooms available, each with ample closet space. The hallway conveniently houses another full bathroom and an upstairs laundry room. Discover why the Pearson Townhome will be the perfect fit for your next move!
Key facts
- Double-bowl vanity
- Quartz countertops
- Open-concept kitchen
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $310k. Condition is rated excellent.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $9 ($108/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (11.2% below list).
- Recommended offer: $275k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
- Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.5% in Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 81/100 on livability (#101 in FL, #1,528 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
- Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: B.D. Gullett Elementary School (math 78% / reading 73%, grade A, #211 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,121 students, 20% FRL); R. Dan Nolan Middle School (math 79% / reading 72%, grade A, #38 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 760 students, 28% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 51% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
- Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
- Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 1553 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 88d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.88% ✗
- Cap rate
- 6.33%
- Cash-on-cash
- 0.12%
- DSCR
- 1.01
- GRM
- 9.5
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $313,995
- List price
- $310,000
- Delta
- -0.32%
- Verdict
- FAIR
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18548 Buckskin Dr | 0.07mi | 3/2.5 | 1,464 (0%) | 0mo | $306,500 | $209 | 96 |
| 18602 Buckskin Dr | 0.06mi | 3/2.5 | 1,464 (0%) | 1mo | $304,000 | $208 | 96 |
| 18556 Buckskin Dr | 0.07mi | 3/2.5 | 1,464 (0%) | 1mo | $309,000 | $211 | 96 |
| 18610 Buckskin Dr | 0.06mi | 3/2.5 | 1,464 (0%) | 2mo | $349,000 | $238 | 96 |
| 18552 Buckskin Dr | 0.07mi | 3/2.5 | 1,464 (0%) | 2mo | $315,000 | $215 | 95 |
| 18614 Buckskin Dr | 0.05mi | 3/2.5 | 1,463 (-0%) | 3mo | $325,000 | $222 | 95 |
| 2629 Fetlock Run | 0.07mi | 3/2.5 | 1,464 (0%) | 4mo | $315,000 | $215 | 94 |
| 2621 Fetlock Run | 0.07mi | 3/2.5 | 1,464 (0%) | 4mo | $319,000 | $218 | 93 |
| 2617 Fetlock Run | 0.07mi | 3/2.5 | 1,464 (0%) | 4mo | $312,000 | $213 | 93 |
| 2613 Fetlock Run | 0.08mi | 3/2.5 | 1,464 (0%) | 4mo | $312,000 | $213 | 93 |
| 18544 Buckskin Dr | 0.08mi | 3/2.5 | 1,463 (-0%) | 4mo | $334,000 | $228 | 93 |
| 2625 Fetlock Run | 0.07mi | 3/2.5 | 1,464 (0%) | 5mo | $310,000 | $212 | 93 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -19.5%
- Equity multiple
- 0.34×
- Total profit
- $-58,335
- Equity at exit
- $46,818
- IRR
- -20.3%
- Equity multiple
- 0.08×
- Total profit
- $-81,079
- Equity at exit
- $27,149
Cash invested: $87,919 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 21 active · 8 under contract
- Months of supply
- 6.3 mo (16%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $310,000 ($211/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 112 d
- This list price
- 43% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +1.6% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 34211
- Home prices YoY
- -27.5%
- Rents YoY
- -5.2%
- Active inventory
- 1553
- Price-to-rent
- 9.4×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,753 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,647
- Tax from tax record
- −$132 /mo · $1,579/yr
- Insurance
- −$131
- HOA
- −$257
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$578
- Net cashflow
- $9
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $187 | -5% $98 | +0% $9 | +5% $-80 | +10% $-169 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-208 | -5% $-100 | +0% $9 | +5% $118 | +10% $227 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $167 | -0.5pp $89 | base $9 | +0.5pp $-72 | +1.0pp $-155 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $78,499
- Closing costs
- $9,420
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 21 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2617 Fetlock Run Unit 2617 Bradenton, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1464 | $2,350 | $1.61 | 111d | 1 | 0.08mi |
| 18524 Buckskin Dr Bradenton, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1464 | $2,300 | $1.57 | 119d | 1 | 0.13mi |
| 18143 Wheathouse Pl Bradenton, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1828 | $3,300 | $1.81 | 119d | 1 | 0.42mi |
| 18047 Cropside Trl Lakewood Ranch, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1565 | $2,899 | $1.85 | 2d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 19910 Florida 64 Fl -64 Bradenton, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1456 | $2,800 | $1.92 | 9d | 1 | 0.72mi |
| 17624 Crescent Moon Loop Bradenton, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1784 | $2,950 | $1.65 | 119d | 1 | 0.77mi |
| 17649 Crescent Moon Loop Bradenton, FL | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1673 | $2,749 | $1.64 | 119d | 1 | 0.79mi |
| 17550 Crescent Moon Loop Lakewood Ranch, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1661 | $2,500 | $1.51 | 2d | 1 | 0.83mi |
| 17769 Crescent Moon Loop Bradenton, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1561 | $2,600 | $1.67 | 88d | 1 | 0.85mi |
| 17777 Crescent Moon Loop Bradenton, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1464 | $2,300 | $1.57 | 117d | 1 | 0.85mi |
| 18123 Gulf Ranch Pl Lakewood Ranch, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1844 | $4,250 | $2.30 | 2d | 1 | 0.87mi |
| 3222 Bitterroot Ln Bradenton, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1665 | $3,000 | $1.80 | 119d | 1 | 0.93mi |
| 2725 Georgina CIR Lakewood Ranch, FL | 3.0–4.0 | 2.5–3.5 | 2094 | $2,549 | $1.22 | 0d | 42 | 1.11mi |
| 2206 Washington Palm Ct Bradenton, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1800 | $2,800 | $1.56 | 77d | 1 | 1.16mi |
| 16929 Yard Spring Dr Bradenton, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1504 | $2,700 | $1.80 | 99d | 1 | 1.25mi |
| 17903 Cherished Loop Bradenton, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1672 | $2,800 | $1.67 | 119d | 1 | 1.30mi |
| 17929 Cherished Loop Lakewood Ranch, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1432 | $2,800 | $1.96 | 0d | 1 | 1.33mi |
| 17918 Cherished Loop Bradenton, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1452 | $3,000 | $2.07 | 119d | 1 | 1.34mi |
| 3109 Novara Ln Lakewood Ranch, FL | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1373 | $2,199 | $1.60 | 2d | 1 | 1.42mi |
| 16656 Bergamo Pl Bradenton, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1553 | $2,300 | $1.48 | 9d | 1 | 1.44mi |
| 16620 Bergamo Pl Lakewood Ranch, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1373 | $3,800 | $2.77 | 2d | 1 | 1.48mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Home warranty included
- Financial info
- Total monthly fees $257; total annual fees $3,084Lease restrictions apply
- HOA & community
- HOA managed by Access ManagementMonthly HOA fee $257 (covers maintenance of grounds)Association approval requiredCommunity clubhouseCommunity amenities: fitness center, pool, tennis courtsPets allowed
Exterior
- Parking
- Attached garage (1 car) — approximately 10 x 20
- Utilities
- Public sewerPublic water: None specifiedUnderground utilities
- Home design
- Residential townhouseUnder construction (projected completion September 11, 2026)Two levelsSouthwest facingEntry on slab foundation
- Construction
- New constructionBlock, stone and stucco constructionShingle roofBuilt by D.R. Horton (model: PEARSON)Slab foundation
- Exterior features
- PatioPond viewPaved road access
Interior
- Kitchen
- DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRangeRefrigeratorElectric water heater
- Bedrooms
- 3 bedrooms
- Flooring
- Carpet
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
- Heating & cooling
- Electric heatingHeat pumpCentral air conditioning
- Interior features
- Kitchen/family room comboLiving room/dining room comboOpen floorplanSliding doorsHurricane shutters
- Laundry & utility
- Laundry roomWasherDryer
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-09-24pricedays on market $310,000 Active 107 DOM
-
2026-09-22days on market $312,990 Active 105 DOM
-
2026-09-21days on market $312,990 Active 104 DOM
-
2026-09-20days on market $312,990 Active 103 DOM
-
2026-09-19days on market $312,990 Active 102 DOM
-
2026-09-18days on market $312,990 Active 101 DOM
-
2026-09-17days on market $312,990 Active 100 DOM
-
2026-09-16days on market $312,990 Active 99 DOM
-
2026-09-15days on market $312,990 Active 98 DOM
-
2026-09-14days on market $312,990 Active 97 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $312,990 Active 96 DOM
-
2026-09-12days on market $312,990 Active 95 DOM
-
2026-09-11pricedays on market $312,990 Active 94 DOM
-
2026-09-05days on market $322,990 Active 88 DOM
-
2026-09-04days on market $322,990 Active 87 DOM
-
2026-09-03days on market $322,990 Active 86 DOM
-
2026-08-31days on market $322,990 Active 83 DOM
-
2026-08-30days on market $322,990 Active 82 DOM
-
2026-08-29days on market $322,990 Active 81 DOM
-
2026-08-28days on market $322,990 Active 80 DOM
-
2026-08-27days on market $322,990 Active 79 DOM
-
2026-08-26days on market $322,990 Active 78 DOM
-
2026-08-25days on market $322,990 Active 77 DOM
-
2026-08-24days on market $322,990 Active 76 DOM
-
2026-08-23days on market $322,990 Active 75 DOM
-
2026-08-22days on market $322,990 Active 74 DOM
-
2026-08-21days on market $322,990 Active 73 DOM
-
2026-08-20price $322,990 Active 72 DOM
-
2026-08-20days on market $334,990 Active 72 DOM
-
2026-08-19days on market $334,990 Active 71 DOM
-
2026-08-18days on market $334,990 Active 70 DOM
-
2026-08-17days on market $334,990 Active 69 DOM
-
2026-08-16days on market $334,990 Active 68 DOM
-
2026-08-15days on market $334,990 Active 67 DOM
-
2026-08-14days on market $334,990 Active 66 DOM
-
2026-08-13days on market $334,990 Active 65 DOM
-
2026-08-12days on market $334,990 Active 64 DOM
-
2026-08-11days on market $334,990 Active 63 DOM
-
2026-08-10days on market $334,990 Active 62 DOM
-
2026-08-09days on market $334,990 Active 61 DOM
-
2026-08-08days on market $334,990 Active 60 DOM
-
2026-08-07days on market $334,990 Active 59 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $334,990 Active 58 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $334,990 Active 57 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $334,990 Active 56 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $334,990 Active 55 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $334,990 Active 52 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $334,990 Active 50 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $334,990 Active 49 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $334,990 Active 47 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $1,579 · $132/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $2,573 · $214/mo
- Expected delta
- +$994/yr (+$83/mo · 63.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $33,039
- − Mortgage interest
- −$17,589
- − Property taxes
- −$1,579
- − Insurance
- −$1,570
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,643
- − Management
- −$2,643
- − HOA
- −$3,084
- − Depreciation
- −$9,134
- Taxable loss
- −$5,203
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$1,249
- After-tax cash flow
- $1,357/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos
This newly constructed townhouse is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a great opportunity for investors looking to maximize both resale and rental value through minor cosmetic improvements.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
- Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters ↑
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Manatee
- NCES district ID
- 1201230
- Math proficiency
- 54% ▼ -6.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 50% ▼ -2.00%
- Median HH income
- $49,607
- Composite
- 44.43/100
- National rank
- #2806
- State rank
- #26 of 73 in FL
Livability — Bradenton
- Score
- 81/100
- State rank
- #101
- US rank
- #1528
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- Manatee County · 447,342 people
- City population
- 52,177
- Metro
- North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 24,980
- Household income
- $119,911
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 10% of renters
Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 447,342 people
- By 2030
- 488,911 · +9.3%
- By 2040
- 567,934 · +27.0%
- By 2050
- 637,995 · +42.6%
- By 2075
- 781,970 · +74.8%
- By 2100
- 848,272 · +89.6%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (81%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 2% Native American 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
- Foreign-born
- 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
- Languages at home
- 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%
Political lean MEDSL · Manatee
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -100.84%
- Current HPI
- 265.946
- Rent YoY
- ▼ -5.17%
- Metro
- North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
||
| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
||
| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
|
||
Price history
+0.0% since first listed2 events — show timeline
- 2026-06-10 Listed $334,990 Zillow
- 2026-06-09 Listed $334,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…