9616 SE 167th Pl · The Villages, FL 34491

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,610 sqft · Manufactured public records · 244 Days on market

Built 2003 7,405 sqft lot Est $150k · 34% over $130/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

PRICE DROP!!!! RESORT STYLE LIVING AT ITS BEST!!! GOLF CART INCLUDED!! HUGE 3-BEDROOM, 2-BATH HOME IN SOUGHT-AFTER HILLTOP ESTATES (55+ Community). WHERE YOU OWN YOUR OWN LAND!! NO BOND, 1,610 SQ. FT. UNDER AIR, 2,999 TOTAL SQ. FT. THIS GORGEOUS UPDATED KITCHEN HAS GRANITE COUNTERTOPS, EAT-IN KITCHEN, PANTY, BAY WINDOWS WITH A VIEW. FORMAL DINING ROOM AND LIVING ROOM ARE PERFECT FOR ENTERTAINING. 3 SKYLIGHTS, CROWN MOLDING THROUGHOUT WASHER AND DRYER INSIDE, LARGE PRIMARY BEDROOM WITH BRAND NEW CARPET, CEILING FAN, WALK IN CLOSET. PRIMARY EN-SUITE BATH HAS A DOUBLE SINK, WALK IN SHOWER, AND A LINEN CLOSET. SPLIT FLOOR PLAN PROVIDES EXCELLENT PRIVACY WHEN HOSTING GUESTS. #2 GUEST ROOM FEATU

Key facts

• Walk-in closets
• Updated kitchen
• Bay windows

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• BAY WINDOWS
• COZY EAT-IN-KITCHEN
• GREAT VIEW OF THE GARDEN
• CROWN MOLDING
• WALK-IN CLOSETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a senior community; Pets allowed (dogs OK)
• Financial info: Total annual fees noted at $1,560; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA with monthly fee of $130; Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, spa/hot tub, park, pickleball courts, shuffleboard court, maintenance, recreational facilities; Association fee covers pool, insurance, maintenance, private road, sewer, trash, water, escrow reserves

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway; Garage facing side; Carport with 5 spaces
• Utilities: Private well water; Private sewer; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; Private utilities
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Single-story; East-facing; Entry level: One
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Side porch; Private mailbox; Sliding doors; Outdoor storage; Fruit trees; Private lot; Asphalt road frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 75 x 100

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Open floor plan; Split bedroom layout; Walk-in closets; Skylights; Inside utility and storage rooms
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 705 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 244 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 244 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.82%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $149,730
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9653 SE 171st Pl	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+1%)	9mo	$95,000	$59	74
16780 SE 101st Court Rd	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-10%)	12mo	$135,000	$93	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-12,105
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $15,637
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34491

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Active inventory: 705
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,126 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$130
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,723

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9523 SE 168th Maplesong Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,975	$1.56	21d	1	0.13mi
16962 SE 94th Sunnybrook Cir The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1160	$2,000	$1.72	21d	1	0.27mi
17199 SE 97th Ter Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,990	$1.42	21d	1	0.47mi
9195 SE 163rd St Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,800	$1.28	21d	1	0.63mi
16475 SE 89th Ter Summerfield, FL	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	14d	1	0.70mi
17522 SE 95th Cir Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1884	$1,875	$1.00	21d	1	0.76mi
9871 SE 161st Lane Rd Unit 0 Summerfield, FL	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,200	$1.20	21d	1	0.86mi
10326 SE 162nd Place Rd Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1419	$2,300	$1.62	14d	1	0.90mi
17532 SE 100th Ct Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1217	$1,800	$1.48	21d	1	0.91mi
17582 SE 96th Ct Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1652	$1,750	$1.06	21d	1	0.93mi
9393 SE 158th Pl Summerfield, FL	4.0	3.0	1990	$2,500	$1.26	21d	1	0.96mi
17713 SE 95th Cir Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,000	$1.38	21d	1	1.04mi
10397 SE 176th St Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1296	$2,150	$1.66	21d	1	1.19mi
8721 SE 157th St Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,650	$1.33	21d	1	1.42mi
8198 SE 164th Pl Summerfield, FL	3.0	1.5	1965	$2,650	$1.35	21d	1	1.45mi
17324 SE 82nd Pecan Ter The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1358	$2,500	$1.84	21d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $130 · $1,560/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-11
   price $199,900
3. 2026-02-14
   price $213,000
4. 2025-12-27
   price $219,000
5. 2025-12-27
   price $225,000
6. 2025-11-08
   price $219,000
7. 2025-09-12
   listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,198 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,659 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$461/yr (+$38/mo · 38.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,514
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,041
• − Management: −$2,041
• − HOA: −$1,560
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $661
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$159
• After-tax cash flow: $3,660/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,318
• Household income: $66,679
• Rent vs Own: 13.2% rent · 86.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 256.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.67%
• Current HPI: 200.0792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-11.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $213,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-27 Price Changed $219,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-27 Price Changed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $219,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-12 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,198 · +24.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.