22 River St · Chateaugay, NY 12920

$90,360

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,530 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 144 Days on market

Built 1910 0.26 ac lot $59/sqft · 43% below area Est $158k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this inviting two-story residence that blends warmth, character, and smart design, all at an affordable price point. Rich wood finishes throughout give the home a timeless, natural feel creating a cozy atmosphere from the moment you walk in. Close to town and right by the school.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1910

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#694 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Chateaugay Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #515 of 755 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($625 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.3% local appreciation)).
• Franklin County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $90k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $79,516 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.44%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $158,500
• List price: $90,360
• Delta: -36.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 Church Street St	0.21mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,352 (-12%)	5mo	$158,500	$117	62
203 East Main Street St	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,735 (+13%)	13mo	$205,475	$118	57
47 W Main St	0.49mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,740 (+14%)	6mo	$175,000	$101	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $28,828
• Equity at exit: $47,591

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.13×
• Total profit: $79,228
• Equity at exit: $79,292

Cash invested: $25,301 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12920

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,117 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$474
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,313/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $891

Max offer price $90,360

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $229	-5% $204	+0% $178	+5% $152	+10% $127
Rent	-10% $90	-5% $134	+0% $178	+5% $222	+10% $266
Rate	-1.0pp $223	-0.5pp $201	base $178	+0.5pp $155	+1.0pp $131

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,590
• Closing costs: $2,711
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $90,360 Active 144 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,440 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,440 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,440 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,440 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,440 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $100,440 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,440 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,440 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,440 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,440 Active 130 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $100,440 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,440 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,440 Active 125 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,440 Active 124 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $100,440 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Welcome to this inviting two-story residence that blends warmth, character, and smart design, all at an affordable price point. Rich wood finishes throughout give the home a timeless, natural feel creating a cozy atmosphere from the moment you walk in. Close to town and right by the school.

17. 2026-04-01
    price $111,600 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Welcome to this inviting two-story residence that blends warmth, character, and smart design, all at an affordable price point. Rich wood finishes throughout give the home a timeless, natural feel creating a cozy atmosphere from the moment you walk in. Close to town and right by the school.

18. 2026-02-11
    price $124,000 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Welcome to this inviting two-story residence that blends warmth, character, and smart design, all at an affordable price point. Rich wood finishes throughout give the home a timeless, natural feel creating a cozy atmosphere from the moment you walk in. Close to town and right by the school.

19. 2026-01-27
    listed $138,000 Active 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Welcome to this inviting two-story residence that blends warmth, character, and smart design, all at an affordable price point. Rich wood finishes throughout give the home a timeless, natural feel creating a cozy atmosphere from the moment you walk in. Close to town and right by the school.

20. 2021-02-08
    soldstatus $47,500
21. 2009-09-23
    soldstatus $30,000
22. 1994-12-07
    soldstatus $31,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,313 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,313 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,062
• − Property taxes: −$2,313
• − Insurance: −$452
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,072
• − Management: −$1,072
• − Depreciation: −$2,629
• Taxable income: $801
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$192
• After-tax cash flow: $1,943/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chateaugay Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607080
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,279
• Composite: 42.66/100
• National rank: #6803
• State rank: #515 of 755 in NY

Livability — Chateaugay

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #694
• US rank: #13108

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chateaugay, NY
• Population (ZIP): 2,509

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,098 people
• By 2030: 46,790 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 44,400 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 41,256 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 32,190 · -33.1%
• By 2100: 23,407 · -51.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 18% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.0) · D 45.5% · R 54.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.2pp · 2024: -9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.0 2020: R+2.2 2016: R+7.4 2012: D+26.3 2008: D+22.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.33%
• Current HPI: 300.5209
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+224.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $100,440 ACVMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $111,600 ACVMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $124,000 ACVMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $138,000 ACVMLS
• 2021-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records
• 2009-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1994-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,313 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.